Rule 1 - Look for opponents of favorites that like to play conservatively with a lead, especially on the road. These kind of teams like to run the ball with a lead in order to eat away at the clock. They aren't concerned with beating up badly on opponents or running up scores, they simply want to ensure victory by ending the game as swiftly as possible. This is a great edge to look for when trying to find a team with a +9 or +16 spread that you will tease to +15 or +22. Some teams like to play it more aggressive at home, and more conservative when in the enemy's confines, so road favorites of the above margins are a good group to look at going against.
Rule 2 - Look for home favorites that get the job done no matter what. Some teams win ugly, doing whatever they can to just secure a win. The Bears a couple of years ago when they went on their improbably run are a good example. This team seemed to ''get lucky'' due to some lucky breaks. The teams that fall into this tend to win but not cover are the -8 to -6 favorites that you can tease to under a field goal.
Rule 3 - Try to uncover teams that are coming close to covering the spread, but haven't gotten the job done. Linesmakers don't adjust the line due to teaser action because they can''t. Very few people have the diligence to look deep into the ATS records to see how closely teams are falling to the number. If the linesmakers have teams that they know pretty well and are hitting close to their line, these teams might have a high teaser winning rate.
Rule 4 - Tease rivalry games, divisional matchups, and playoff games. Teams that are in big rivalries or that are in conference know each other very well and more importantly, the linesmakers know how these teams fare against one another. The lines for these games are pretty precise, more accurate than teams who rarely play one another. At the end of each season the linesmakers know the teams pretty well and also there is enough game tape that each coach can scout the opponents pretty well.
Rule 5 - Tease better defenses, don''t tease against good offenses. The reason for this is simple, a good defensive team with a poor offense is much more likely to keep the game close than a terrible defensive team who is playing a high scoring offense. If the high scoring offense gets things going in the right direction, not even the extra points will help!
Rule 6 - Do not tease rookie QB''s, freshman QB''s , or any other QB who you know to have very little experience. Turnovers are the death of many teaser bets because they can''t be handicapped into the game. More experienced QBs know to throw the ball away or take a sack when they need to and to not force the action. Trying to force things to happen leads to fumbles, interceptions, and good scoring opportunities for the opposition.
Rule 7 - Tease predictable games. When teams have had something significant happen to them, clinching or being eliminated from the playoffs, key personal injured or suspended, or any other extraordinary circumstance needs to eliminate a game from your teaser consideration. You want the final score to come fairly close to the real line, this will ensure a teaser victory.
We have laid out 7 solid rules for the average bettor who plays teaser bets this football season. Using these steadfast guidelines should ensure that the recreational bettor who uses the weekly teaser as his fun bet has all of the knowledge that goes into the rare occasion when a professional gambler plays his teasers. Remember that when handicapping a straight side you need to win 52% of your bets, but when you get the extra 6 points you need to win 72% of your plays in order to show a profit. Until next time, good luck on all bets.