One of my favorite plays on the Monday NFL odds pits the San Francisco 49ers against the Chicago Bears. These two are going to be meeting at 8:30 p.m. ET at Candlestick Park, and I’m going to show you which side to make your NFL pick on for this great game.

Chicago Bears (7-2, 5-4 ATS) +7
San Francisco 49ers (6-2-1, 5-4 ATS) -7
Over/Under 36.5

The immediate gut reaction to the fact that the ‘total’ this week is 36.5 is for the game to go sailing under the ‘total’. However, I have a bit of a different take on this game and think that, in spite of Joe Public’s best wishes for this game to go by quickly and without incident, that it will indeed find a way to at least eke past the number.

QB Jason Campbell isn’t your average backup quarterback. He has the ability to put some points on the board, and he has starting experience. On top of that, the supposedly “vaunted” Bears defense has allowed 55 points over the course of the last three weeks, and those points have come against two bad offenses and a great offense that was stuck playing in the midst of a monsoon at Soldier Field.

Scoring hasn’t been the problem for the 49ers, as they have at least 24 points scored in four of their last five and six of their nine games this year. The perception of this team is that the defense does all of the heavy lifting, and though this unit is stout, it is capable of allowing 14-17 points and likely will do so. Now go back and look at some history of these teams. Four of the last six have gotten past the ‘total’, and the two games that didn’t were played in horrendous weather conditions (including a 17-9 game that featured almost comical wind conditions at Soldier Field). This one should at least find its way into the high-30s, and perhaps as high as the mid-40s when it is said and done with.

Bears @ 49ers Tips: Over 36.5