One of my favorite plays on the Sunday NFL odds pits the Houston Texans against the Indianapolis Colts. These two are going to be meeting at 1:00 p.m. ET at Reliant Stadium, and I’m going to show you which side to make your NFL pick on for this great game.
Indianapolis Colts (9-4, 9-4 ATS) +10
Houston Texans (11-2, 8-5 ATS) -10
Doesn’t this just feel like a game in which the Houston defense finally shows up and shuts down someone of note for a full 60 minutes? The Texans haven’t really had a stunning defensive game, save for the win over the Tennessee Titans in over a month, and there have been some downright brutal performances as well. This unit was embarrassed and brutalized last week by the Patriots, but DE JJ Watt was held in check, something that he shouldn’t be this weekend.
The Colts have been playing shootout after shootout, but their offense hasn’t been as solid on the road as it has been at home for the most part. Take away the last four minutes of that game against the Detroit Lions two weeks ago, and the Colts would be averaging just 20.2 points per game on the road since Bruce Arians took over as the team’s interim head coach. Those numbers are solid, but they have largely come in relatively easy games, not teams like this one.
In the end, I also have to remember that the last three in this series have all failed to reach the ‘total’. This is an artificially high number right now between two teams that will probably get into the low 20s, but not a heck of a lot more than that. This should feel like a playoff game, and I expect a very tight 24-20 type of game as a result after some late scoring pushes the ‘total’ at least close, but not nearly there.
Colts @ Texans Tips: Under 48