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Horse Racing Event: 2013 Belmont Stakes
Date: Saturday, June 8th, 2013
Location: Belmont Park – Elmont, NY
Runners: 3 Year Olds
Belmont Stakes Post Time: Approximately 6:30 PM ET
Current Belmont Stakes Favorite: Orb (3 to 1)
Belmont Stakes Racing Form: Click Here
Free 2013 Belmont Picks & Analysis: There has only been one bigger field in the Belmont Stakes than the one that we are figuring to see on Saturday afternoon, as there will be 14 horses called to the starting gate if none of them ultimately get scratched. That’s going to make this race feel a lot more like the Kentucky Derby than anything else, knowing that there is very little that we know about so many of these horses in this field. Of course, we never know which ones of these horses really could run the 1 1/2 miles that is “The Test of Champions,” and we don’t know whether Mother Nature will be up to her tricks either. The track very well could be sloppy once again, marking the second of the three legs of the Triple Crown to be mired in rain and potentially muddy conditions.
The showdown that everyone wants to see here in the Belmont Stakes is the duel between Oxbow and Orb. Orb, of course won the Kentucky Derby in fine fashion while Oxbow went wire to wire at the Preakness Stakes. One would like to think that whichever of these horses wins that race will ultimately be the favorite to win Horse of the Year honors… Unless of course someone else comes out of nowhere to win the race.
2013 Belmont Stakes Post Positions/Post Draws with Belmont Stakes Morning Lines
1: Frac Daddy (30 to 1)
2: Freedom Child (8 to 1)
3: Overanalyze (12 to 1)
4: Giant Finish (30 to 1)
5: Orb (3 to 1)
6: Incognito (20 to 1)
7: Oxbow (5 to 1)
8: Midnight Taboo (30 to 1)
9: Revolutionary (9 to 2)
10: Will Take Charge (20 to 1)
11: Vyjack (20 to 1)
12: Palace Malice (15 to 1)
13: Unlimited Budget (8 to 1)
14: Golden Soul (10 to 1)
We still have some real questions about a number of the horses in this field. We’ll start on the far inside, where Frac Daddy appears to be nothing more than a horse that is put out in this field as fodder. Freedom Child would be a nice story, and it’s really hard to overlook that win in the Peter Pan Stakes by a whopping 13 1/2 lengths. However, just how good was the field in the Peter Pan? It’s not nearly what Freedom Child is going to run up against here at the Belmont Stakes. Overanalyze and Giant Finish don’t seem like threats to us either. We also don’t like horses that, in the middle of their three-year old years, don’t have any races with Beyer Speed Ratings in the 90s, which eliminates Incognito and Midnight Taboo. The rest of this field though, is really wide open for the most part.
We are taking a big liking right now to both Revolutionary and Palace Malice. Revolutionary seems to be one of these horses that is always in the discussion, and we don’t think that it was an accident that he has never finished outside of the Top 3 in a race in his career, and even when he was working on breaking his maiden over and over again as a two-year old, he was always close to getting the job done. In his last four races, he has three runs of at least Beyer Speed Ratings of 93, including a 99 in the Kentucky Derby. Palace Malice is the Oxbow of this race as we see it. He ran a workout of a blazing 47.4 over four furlongs just this week at Belmont Park, and if he keeps that type of a pace up at the Belmont Stakes, he could become one of the best valued horses in the field. Remember that Curlin is Palace Malice’s sire, and the breeding is there for this horse to be a tremendous champion.
Will Take Charge and Vyjack are both the types of horses that could come in at the bottom of the payout chart, and we wouldn’t be opposed to putting either in our exotics. However, when push comes to shove, we don’t think that either is going to actually get the job done as a contender to win this race, though Vyjack and his three wins in five career races has to be considered impressive, to say the least. We don’t think much of Golden Soul on the far outside, and Unlimited Budget is a filly that we think is being overplayed. Only three fillies have ever won this race, and Jockey Rosie Napravnik has never really come all that close to winning a Triple Crown race. That’s just not a good combination for a horse that many are placing their bets on.
That leaves Oxbow and Orb to discuss. There’s a reason that Oxbow is the third favorite at 5 to 1 and Revolutionary is in between these two horses at 9 to 2. We just don’t believe that Oxbow has the ability to carry through this 1 1/2-mile jaunt, and we know if he goes out to the lead once again, he is going to ultimately wear out and get run down in a race where other horses will go out with him. Orb is simply the best horse in this field, and we have a tough time believing that he isn’t the horse to beat when push comes to shove. It won’t be a romp by double digits of lengths, but we do think that there will be no doubt in the last 10 strides or so who the victorious horse will be. Don’t be afraid to put Revolutionary, Vyjack, and Will Take Charge in your exotics, but we still think that the Orb/Palace Malice ticket could be the winning one.
Belmont Stakes Superfecta Pick
#12 Palace Malice
Current Belmont Stakes Race Odds & Betting Lines (As Of 6/6/13)
Orb 3 to 1
Revolutionary 5 to 1
Oxbow 13 to 2
Freedom Child 8 to 1
Palace Malice 10 to 1
Unlimited Budget 10 to 1
Golden Soul 12 to 1
Overanalyze 14 to 1
Will Take Charge 20 to 1
Vyjack 22 to 1
Incognito 25 to 1
Frac Daddy 33 to 1
Giant Finish 33 to 1
Midnight Taboo 33 to 1