Archive for the ‘Football Tipster’ Category

February 3rd, 2013 By Jack Wilshire

The Super Bowl 47 odds are finally posted, and today, I’m set to make my Super Bowl pointspread picks for the ‘total’ in the biggest game of the season. The Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers are going to do battle at the Mercedes Benz Superdome in New Orleans, LA. Join me for my free Super Bowl tips for this 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff that can be seen on CBS.

Over the course of the last several seasons, the 49ers have really struggled and struggled mightily against this vaunted Baltimore defense. The team has scored just 19 points in three games, including just six when these two met up last season at M&T Bank Stadium. However, the Niners definitely have some talent offensively that they have showcased over the course of the last several weeks. QB Colin Kaepernick has proven that he is one of the best in the biz at the moment, and he can do just about anything that he is asked to do. I love the way that he runs that read option, and though I know that he isn’t going to run for anywhere near 181 yards like he did against the Packers a few weeks back, the Ravens have to always be aware of his running abilities.

Super Bowl Picks
Baltimore Ravens (13-6, 9-9-1 ATS) +4
New England Patriots (13-4-1, 11-7 ATS) -4
Over/Under 47.5

The Ravens, too, have flexed their offensive muscles over the course of the last few weeks. They have scored at least 24 in four straight meaningful games (forget about that Week 17 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, as that game really didn’t mean anything and most of the starters didn’t play nearly the full game). QB Joe Flacco now has the buzz of being an elite quarterback after outdueling QB Peyton Manning and QB Tom Brady in back to back games. The former Delaware Blue Hen has done well, throwing for eight TDs. Most importantly to me, though? Not a single interception! RB Ray Rice is averaging over 80 yards per game on the ground in the playoffs, and those are big time numbers against defenses that have been pretty darn stout for the most part over the course of the season. WR Anquan Boldin is catching everything that is coming his way, and he and WR Torrey Smith each have a two-TD game under their belt here in the postseason.

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Notice that I’m talking a lot about these two offenses? I think that this ‘total’ has already dropped too far. The Baltimore defense has played better ball than it probably ever could have been expected to play here in the second season, but I have to take those emotions out of it. This is the same unit that allowed 43 to the Houston Texans and 31 to the Washington Redskins, 34 to the Denver Broncos the first time around, and 30 against the New England Patriots back in Week 3. The 49ers, on the other hand, should be a lot better than they have been here in the second season as well. However, they really haven’t looked great against the best competition that they have run up against all season long, and that is definitely worrisome to me, as it should be to the San Fran nation. In the end, asking for 48 points isn’t all that much in relation to what we’ve seen over the course of the last few weeks. It has been one of the highest postseasons in NFL history, both on average points per game and total points scored, and this could be another one of these games that gets into the 50s when push comes to shove.

Super Bowl Picks & Tips: Over 47.5

 
January 17th, 2013 By Jack Wilshire

The NFL playoff schedule is out for this week, and today, I’m set to make my NFL playoffs pointspread picks for the ‘total’ in this crucial clash. The Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots are going to do battle at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA. Join me for my AFC Championship Game tips for this 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff that can be seen on CBS.

Earlier this year, the Ravens and the Patriots combined to put up 61 points on the board. On top of that, all four games in the Divisional Round of the playoffs exceeded the ‘total’. It’s really setting up for an inflated ‘total’, and that’s exactly what I think has happened in this game between two teams that have fairly good defenses.

AFC Championship Game Picks
Baltimore Ravens (12-6, 8-9-1 ATS) +8
New England Patriots (13-4, 10-7 ATS) -8
Over/Under 51.5

It goes without saying that the New England offense is out of this world. The team runs all over the place, right up to the line of scrimmage quite often, and it is rare to see a defense shut this unit down. The implication is that the Pats are going to be scoring over 30 points in this game with QB Tom Brady at the helm. And why not? New England has scored at least 30 11 times in 17 games this year, including putting up at least 40 in six games, including four times since the team’s Week 9 bye. The club finished the year ranked first in the NFL in total yards at 427.9 yards per game and in scoring at 34.8 points per game. I’m still just not quite buying 51.5, though.

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Remember that, against a relatively comparable Denver offense last week, the Ravens only allowed 21 defensive points, and that came in over five quarters of play, not four. Yes, there were a lot of yards conceded, but there were a lot of yards conceded the week before against the Indianapolis Colts, too. The end result in that game? Nine points allowed, all field goals. Before this past year, the previous seven meetings of these two teams since 2000 all featured 51 points or fewer, and that includes a pair of 23-20 games from the 2012 playoffs and the 2010 regular season, both of which were played here in Foxboro. It’s just all too much. I love how over 60% of the bets are on the ‘over’ in this game, yet the line really isn’t moving all that much (just a half point). I think there are going to be some big time bets on the ‘under’ when it’s all said and done, and mine is going to be one of them.

Baltimore vs. New England Picks & Tips: Under 51.5

 
January 17th, 2013 By Jack Wilshire

I’ve been studying the ‘total’ for the NFL Playoffs odds for quite some time, and I’m ready to make my NFC Championship Game picks for the clash between the Atlanta Falcons and the San Francisco 49ers. The San Francisco vs. Atlanta kickoff is set for 3:00 p.m. ET at the Georgia Dome, and I’m going to show you which way to bet on the NFL playoffs to make your NFL pick on for this great game.

NFC Championship Game Picks
San Francisco 49ers (12-4-1, 10-7 ATS) -4
Atlanta Falcons (14-3, 9-7-1 ATS) +4
Over/Under 49

For the sharp bettors like me (and hopefully all of you), it was a rough week. Square teams did a lot of covering, and all of the ‘overs’ came in. And now, the oddsmakers have had no choice but to adjust and compensate by making these numbers a heck of a lot higher than it should be, especially here in the NFC Championship Game. The 49ers averaged just 41.9 points per game this year in the regular season, while the Falcons were at just 44.9. And they think that this is a game that is going to get to 50 points? Earlier this season, this would have been a game lined around 43 or 44, and this is a huge overcompensation.

I know that the Falcons are going to try their best to get the job done on the ground, but they just aren’t going to be able to do it. Last week in the first half against Seattle, they ran for 133 yards. The rest of the game? Just 34. That forced QB Matt Ryan into throwing the ball more. Many felt encouraged by the fact that he threw for just over 200 yards in the first three quarters of the game. His next meaningful yards? They didn’t come until the final two passing plays that set up the game-winning field goal. It’s just not an offense that is going to really get the job done all that often against this defense, I feel.

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On top of that, the 49ers really aren’t as great of an offensive teams as they showed last week in Green Bay. Yes, they’re good, but we have to remember that they also scored just 13 points against the St. Louis Rams and 13 against the Seahawks with QB Colin Kaepernick at quarterback. This is a second straight week (and it really should be a third straight week including the bye, knowing that either QB Russell Wilson or QB Robert Griffin III should have been coming to Atlanta in the first round of the playoffs) that the Falcons have been looking at mobile quarterbacks on tape. I think that they’ll at least somewhat slow down Kaepernick, and the end result is going to have this one failing to reach the number when push comes to shove by a relatively healthy margin.

San Francisco vs. Atlanta Picks & Tips: Under 49

 
January 13th, 2013 By Jack Wilshire

The NFL playoff schedule is out for this week, and today, I’m set to make my NFL playoffs pointspread picks for the ‘total’ in this crucial clash. The Seattle Seahawks and the Atlanta Falcons are going to do battle at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, GA. Join me for my Divisional Round playoffs tips for this 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff that can be seen on FOX.

The Seahawks had played five straight ‘over’ contests before a Week 17 win over the St. Louis Rams, and now, they have played back to back ‘under’ games after beating the Washington Redskins 24-14 and shutting them out in the final three quarters of the Wild Card round last week. The Falcons meanwhile, have played ‘under’ contests in three straight and six out of seven, yet the oddsmakers have still lined this ‘total’ far too high at 46. I’m most certainly taking full advantage of this one.

Wild Card Playoff Picks
Seattle Seahawks (12-5, 12-5 ATS) +2.5
Atlanta Falcons (13-3, 9-6-1 ATS) -2.5
Over/Under 46

The Falcons were a bad defensive team this year, but they were still able to hold teams down to just 18.7 points per game in spite of the fact that they were ranked 24th in the league in total defense. That means that the oddsmakers are thinking with the NFL betting odds in this one, that QB Matt Ryan is going to have a great game through the air. There are just a few problems with that. The first is that Matty Ice has never thrown for even 200 yards in a game here in the playoffs in three tries, and he has just three TDs against five picks in those games. Heck, last year, his defense at least scored two points against the New York Giants. He wasn’t able to get a single point on the board. The second problem is that this is a very nasty Seattle defense that is going to take tremendous advantage of the fact that the Falcons only have a passing game. DB Brandon Browner is back, and he has done a remarkable job all season long helping shut down opposing passing games. With the pressure that is sure to be coming on Ryan, it’s a wonder how he is going to get anything going in this one.

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When you look back at it this year, the Seahawks really did a great job defensively against playoff teams. They kept the Packers to 12 points, the Patriots to 23, the 49ers to 13 (twice), the Vikings to 20, and most recently, the Redskins to just 14. It wasn’t a mistake that they had the No. 1 scoring defense in the league this year at just 15.3 points per game allowed, and I really think that this unit is going to shine on Sunday afternoon. Don’t be all that shocked if this one turns out to be a mild upset, but in the end, the ‘under’ is the far better play to make.

Seattle vs. Atlanta Picks & Tips: Under 46

 
January 13th, 2013 By Jack Wilshire

I’ve been studying the ‘total’ for the NFL Playoffs odds for quite some time, and I’m ready to make my Divisional Round picks for the clash between the New England Patriots and the Houston Texans. The Houston vs. New England kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium, and I’m going to show you which way to bet on the NFL playoffs to make your NFL pick on for this great game.

Divisional Round Playoff Picks
Houston Texans (13-4, 10-7 ATS) +9.5
New England Patriots (12-4, 9-7 ATS) -9.5
Over/Under 48.5

The good news for the Texans is that the weather is expected to be relatively nice in Foxboro on Sunday, though it is obviously going to be a heck of a lot colder than what the team is used to when it is playing under the dome at Reliant Stadium. That doesn’t mean that this is an automatic ‘over’ game though, even though there were 56 points scored when these two teams met the first time around. In fact, I’m just about certain that this game is going to be mired in the 30s, much like how the first round game was for the Texans and the Cincinnati Bengals.

For whatever reason, the Texans just can’t get into the end zone at this point. QB Matt Schaub only threw one touchdown last week against Cincinnati, and that TD went the wrong direction. He has just one touchdown pass (going the right direction, anyway) in the last five games, and he has thrown four picks in that stretch, too. Meanwhile, the team only has two total touchdowns in its last 14 quarters of football, and that just doesn’t cut it when push comes to shove. RB Arian Foster is going to be getting the ball quite a bit in this game as well, and we wouldn’t be surprised if this is the second straight game in which he ends up getting the ball 30+ times on the ground and 40+ times in totality. The Houston defense has also had three really big games in the playoffs all-time, as the unit has allowed just an average of 14.3 points per game over the course of the last two years. Of course, this will be a game where there will be more than that allowed this year, but that doesn’t mean that there will be so many allowed to push this one past the ‘total’.

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New England has had a great history in the playoffs, but when you really look at it, a lot of these games just didn’t get to the ‘total’. Last year, both the AFC Championship Game and the Super Bowl both failed to reach the number in spite of the fact that QB Tom Brady and the gang had a great offense, and in the previous five playoff games, four times, the club was kept to 21 points or fewer. Now add into the fact that Houston’s defense has a score to settle after allowing six TDs to the Pats in the first meeting just a month ago. It all adds up to what should be an ‘under’ game to me.

Houston vs. New England Picks & Tips: Under 48.5

 
January 12th, 2013 By Jack Wilshire

I’ve been studying the ‘total’ for the NFL Playoffs odds for quite some time, and I’m ready to make my Divisional Round picks for the clash between the Denver Broncos and the Baltimore Ravens. The Baltimore vs. Denver kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET at Sports Authority Field at Mile High, and I’m going to show you which way to bet on the NFL playoffs to make your NFL pick on for this great game.

Divisional Round Playoff Picks
Baltimore Ravens (11-6, 7-9-1 ATS) +9
Denver Broncos (13-3, 10-6 ATS) -9
Over/Under 45.5

When the Ravens and the Broncos met the first time around a month ago, the end result really wasn’t all that pretty for Baltimore. The only reason this game exceeded the ‘total’ was because QB Joe Flacco hooked up with TE Dennis Pitta for two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. However, there are definitely some reasons to believe that this could be a high scoring game. There were four touchdowns that covered at least 30 yards and three of those went for at least 50 yards. Yet for some reason, the oddsmakers have dropped the ‘total’ in this game from the 48 that it was listed at four weeks ago to 45.5 in this one at Mile High.

I know that the Broncos have a great defense, and I know all about Baltimore’s offense has had some problems here in the playoffs historically. I also know that last week, the Ravens defense held the Indianapolis Colts to just three field goals. However, the Colts did end up putting up 25 first downs and 419 total yards from scrimmage, and that doesn’t bode well against a significantly better team on the road. QB Peyton Manning has been out of this world this year, and if you take away his very first two games playing with the Broncos and prorated that over the course of the rest of the season, he would have thrown for 4,760 yards and 39 TDs against nine picks. He threw for at least three touchdown passes nine times this year, and he threw for at least 300 yards nine times as well. Not surprisingly, there were at least 34 points scored in each of the last three games this year, and in 11 games this year, Manning led his team to at least 30 points.

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The Broncos went 6-2-1 for ‘over’ bettors in their last nine games, and both of their games in the playoffs last year eclipsed the ‘total’ with relative ease as well. Baltimore should have allowed just a ton more points last week against the Colts, and it isn’t going to get away with that on Saturday at Mile High. As long as QB Joe Flacco and the gang find a way to put at least 14 on the board, I’ve got confidence that this game is going to get past the ‘total’.

Baltimore vs. Denver Picks & Tips: Over 45.5

 
January 12th, 2013 By Jack Wilshire

The NFL playoff schedule is out for this week, and today, I’m set to make my NFL playoffs pointspread picks for the ‘total’ in this crucial clash. The Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers are going to do battle at Candlestick Park in San Francisco, CA. Join me for my Divisional Round playoffs tips for this 8:00 p.m. ET kickoff that can be seen on FOX.

The Packers and the 49ers combined for 52 points the first time that they ran into each other, and they are going to be involved in what could be a high scoring playoff game once again. I’m actually a bit surprised that the initial line movement sent this game down from 46 to 45, and I think that this is going to be a situation where the oddsmakers made a big time mistake.

Wild Card Playoff Picks
Green Bay Packers (12-5, 10-7 ATS) +3
San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1, 9-7 ATS) -3
Over/Under 45

The Packers have been out of this world offensively over the course of the last few weeks. The squad put up 24 points last week against the Minnesota Vikings in the first round of the playoffs. They have now put up at least 21 points in six straight games and have averaged 30.7 points per game in that stretch. QB Aaron Rodgers and the gang have a history of playing some tremendously high scoring games in the playoffs as well. Last year’s loss to the New York Giants featured 57 points, and prior to that, the Super Bowl in 2011 saw 56 hit the board, and the second round game against the Atlanta Falcons had 69 points in it. In each of the team’s last nine playoff games, dating back to when QB Brett Favre was calling the shots, the Pack have put up at least 20 points, and they have averaged 30.2 points per game in that run. With Rodgers as the team’s quarterback, the Packers have averaged 30.0 points per game.

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There really is no reason to believe that the 49ers aren’t going to be able to put up some points as well. Last year, QB Alex Smith and the game played in a 68-point shootout against the New Orleans Saints. Now, the team has scored at least 27 points in five of the seven starts that QB Colin Kaepernick has played in. I know that both of these defense can be great, but I also know that the history of this series suggests a high scoring game as well. Not only did this year’s game see 52 hit the board, but four straight games have featured at least 49 points. I only need 46 points for this one to get there, and I think I’m going to get at least a touchdown more than that when push comes to shove.

Green Bay vs. San Francisco Picks & Tips: Over 46

 
January 7th, 2013 By Jack Wilshire

The BCS National Championship Game is one of the games on the college football bowl schedule this year, and today, I’m set to make my NCAA football pointspread picks for the ‘total’ in this clash. The Alabama Crimson Tide and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are going to do battle at Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL. Join me for my BCS National Championship Game tips for this 8:30 p.m. ET kickoff that can be seen on ESPN.

This is what it all comes down to this year, and when push comes to shove, I really think that this is going to be a game that features a few more points than the oddsmakers and most bettors are truthfully expecting to see. I know that both of these defenses are out of this world, and to think that either is going to ultimately allow 20 points seems to be blasphemous. That being said, there is still plenty of talent to be had on both sidelines in terms of offensive abilities. I’m not asking for a miracle. I’m just asking for a few touchdowns.

2013 BCS National Championship Game
Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1, 6-7 ATS) -10
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0, 7-5 ATS) +10
Over/Under 40.5

What I continue to preach and preached throughout the year with the Crimson Tide is that they did continually find ways to score points this year. They dropped 32 on the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game, and they scored at least 21 against everyone in the SEC this season. There’s no reason to think that RB Eddie Lacy and RB TJ Yeldon won’t end up combining for around 175-200 rushing yards once again in this game, regardless of how good the Notre Dame front seven truthfully is. And, for all of their flaws, the Golden Domers this year did average a respectable 26.8 points per game. This isn’t an inept offense, though I do recognize the fact that this is a team that didn’t play against an SEC foe of this caliber this year either.

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So I take it for what it is. I’ve got an experienced quarterback in QB AJ McCarron who knows how to get the ball in the end zone in the biggest games that college football players will ever see, and I have a running game in that of the Crimson Tide that should be able to move the ball at least some when push comes to shove. I’m really just hoping that the Irish don’t get their doors blown off and that they keep this as a competitive game. If they do just that, there’s no reason to think that this one won’t ultimately find its way into the 40s in spite of the fact that these defenses are out of this world.

Alabama vs. Notre Dame Picks & Tips: Over 40.5

 
January 6th, 2013 By Jack Wilshire

BovadaThe Kent State Golden Flashes and the Arkansas State Red Wolves are set to kick off the 2013 GoDaddy.com Bowl on Wednesday 1/6, and I’m set to make my GoDaddy.com Bowl pick for the affair at Ladd Peebles Stadium in Mobile, AL. Kickoff is set for 9:00 ET, and I’ve got the perfect NCAA football pick for the GoDaddy.com Bowl.

2013 GoDaddy.com Bowl
Kent State Golden Flashes (11-2, 10-2-1 ATS) +3.5
Arkansas State Red Wolves (9-3, 8-4 ATS) -3.5
Over/Under 63

On the eve of the BCS National Championship Game, I really think that there could be a tremendously disappointing game for those that are hoping to see a bunch of points scored. In fact, over 60% of the public has played the ‘over, yet the number just isn’t really moving when push comes to shove. There’s a heck of a reason. Many are paying too many attention to the fact that Kent State played eight of its 12 games beyond the ‘total’ this year and really aren’t paying enough attention to the rest of the intangibles of this game.

The Flashes are going to keep this ball on the ground for the full 60 minutes, knowing that RB Dri Archer and RB Trayion Archer will touch the ball a ton. Kent State only scored 13 points in its first three quarters against Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game, and though it did score at least 28 points in all but one of its games this year, it is going to be playing against an Arkansas State team that does have a somewhat respectable defense. Motivation might also be a key for the Flashes, who would have been playing in the BCS had they beaten the Huskies in Detroit. Yes, they have had a long time to get over it, and they have to be motivated to win a bowl game for the first time in school history, but if that level of disappointment comes into the game at all, there is a good chance that the offense could get shut down.

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There’s also something to be said about the fact that Head Coach Gus Malzahn has skipped town and has gone back to Auburn, where he was before coming to Jonesboro. Malzahn really recreated this offense, and though there were times this year that it really looked a brand new offense, at the end of the year, there were at least 34 points scored in seven straight games. With Malzahn gone though, who is going to direct this offense? QB Ryan Aplin is great by Sun Belt standards, but he is going against an underrated defense that really has a chance to shine.

Kent State vs. Arkansas State Picks & Tips: Under 63

 
January 6th, 2013 By Jack Wilshire

I’ve been studying the ‘total’ for the NFL Playoffs odds for quite some time, and I’m ready to make my Wild Card picks for the clash between the Baltimore Ravens and the Indianapolis Colts. The Indianapolis vs. Baltimore kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at M&T Bank Stadium, and I’m going to show you which way to bet on the NFL playoffs to make your NFL pick on for this great game.

Wild Card Playoff Picks
Indianapolis Colts (11-5, 11-5 ATS) +7
Baltimore Ravens (10-6, 6-9-1 ATS) -7
Over/Under 47

The ‘over’ has been getting a lot of play from the so called “NFL handicapping experts” in this one, and I tend to agree that the sharper of the two sides is banking on a number of points to be scored. Yes, I know all about LB Ray Lewis and the fact that this is going to be the last game he ever plays at home, if not the last game of his career, but the truth of the matter is that he is a heck of a lot more of an emotional leader at this point than he is a fantastic linebacker, and he is playing for the first time in almost three months after tearing a bicep muscle. It wasn’t a mistake that this club ranked 17th in the game in total defense this year, a far cry from the normal numbers that we’re used to seeing from the men in black and purple.

Remember that the offense for Baltimore is also better this year to boot. The team averaged 24.9 points per game this year thanks to nearly 4,000 passing yards by QB Joe Flacco. The team struggled some down the stretch, but this is an Indy defense that is coming to town that has already allowed 29.1 points per game on the road this year. Keep a close eye on RB Ray Rice as well. Rice didn’t even have 1,200 rushing yards for the season, but he still has the potential to do a tremendous number against this Indianapolis rush defense, which allowed 137.5 rushing yards per game and just gave up over 300 yards on the ground to the Kansas City Chiefs.

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The Colts are going to throw the ball all over the place on a secondary that really hasn’t been as good ever since DB LaDarius Webb has been knocked out for the season. QB Andrew Luck broke the record for the most passing yards in a season for a rookie with 4,374. He did throw 18 picks, but he also put the ball in the air 627 times to boot. Luck has shown the ability to hit the big time play, most notably to WR T.Y. Hilton, who had over 1,300 all-purpose yards this year. Indy did only average 22.3 points per game this year, but over the course of the last nine games of the year, that scoring average has been 24.6 points per game, which is a lot more along the lines of what I’m expecting to see when this one is said and done with.

Indianapolis vs. Baltimore Picks & Tips: Over 47

 
January 6th, 2013 By Jack Wilshire

The NFL playoff schedule is out for this week, and today, I’m set to make my NFL playoffs pointspread picks for the ‘total’ in this crucial clash. The Seattle Seahawks and the Washington Redskins are going to do battle at FedEx Field in Washington DC. Join me for my Wild Card playoffs tips for this 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff that can be seen on FOX.

It’s strength vs. strength here in the final playoff game, as one of these two teams will be the eighth and final team into the second round of the playoffs for next week. There’s just a ton of intrigue around this game from so many standpoints. There are a pair of rookie quarterbacks making their debut on the biggest stage of football, there are two great running games, one fantastic secondary, and one team that has a remarkable front seven. And, we have something that we don’t see all that often in the playoffs, and that’s a road team that is favored by a field goal over a home team. What makes that even weirder? Seattle has to travel hours and hours clear across the country just to get to this one.

Wild Card Playoff Picks
Seattle Seahawks (11-5, 11-5 ATS) -3
Washington Redskins (10-6, 11-5 ATS) +3
Over/Under 46.5

In the end though, I think that it’s easy to say that this one is going to end up sailing beneath the ‘total’. Asking for 47 points in any playoff game is tough, but doing so with a pair of rookie quarterbacks, no matter how good those two rookies turned out to be this year, is a ton. Yes, I know that the Seattle offense has averaged 42.5 points per game in its last five and that the Washington offense ranked fourth in the league this year in total scoring thanks to the fact that it scored at least 27 points in its last four and six of its last seven games of the regular season. That’s no big surprise to me whatsoever.

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What does this one for me is the fact that both of these teams are going to try to run the ball at one another time and time again. RB Alfred Morris is going to be running into the teeth of one of the most ferocious defenses that the NFL has to offer, one that has allowed 17 points or fewer in five straight games. RB Marshawn Lynch always has the ability to go all Beast Mode on me to ruin things, but the Redskins, for all of their flaws, still rank fifth in the game against the rush this year. If that’s the case, can either of these quarterbacks really get the job done? They’re both going to have to if there are going to be at least 47 points put on the board in this game. Go with the ‘under’.

Seattle vs. Washington Picks & Tips: Under 46.5

 
January 5th, 2013 By Jack Wilshire

The NFL playoff schedule is out for this week, and today, I’m set to make my NFL playoffs pointspread picks for the ‘total’ in this crucial clash. The Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers are going to do battle at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI. Join me for my Wild Card playoffs tips for this 8:00 p.m. ET kickoff that can be seen on NBC.

There is going to be a whole heck of a lot of overreaction to the fact that there were 71 points scored just last week at the Metrodome when these two teams met up, and I’m absolutely going to pounce while the getting is good on a number that is inflated. These two teams do both have some great offensive characteristics, but I know that they both have some massive flaws as well. What I noticed on Sunday was that the Packers are almost better served offensively playing from behind than they are from ahead, as that is when they really put up their big time numbers in the frantic passing game. Perhaps they would be better served running the hurry up spread offense for the full 60 minutes to see what would happen.

Wild Card Playoff Picks
Minnesota Vikings (10-6, 8-7-1 ATS) +8
Green Bay Packers (11-5, 9-7 ATS) -8
Over/Under 46

For starters, this game is being played outside on the grass of the Frozen Tundra, not inside in the cushy 72 degree dome with turf. It’s a little far out to be looking at the weather forecast, but temperatures probably will start below 20 degrees in this game, and when push comes to shove, it’s only going to get colder as the night wears on. This is going to make the passing game a heck of a lot more difficult to execute, especially if for QB Christian Ponder, who played his college ball at Florida State and has no idea what playing in Green Bay in January can be like.

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There also just has to be a point that these two teams figure each other out. Rodgers isn’t going to throw for 325 yards like he has averaged thus far in this series this year, and RB Adrian Peterson probably isn’t going to rush for 205 yards like he has averaged against the Pack. If those two items turn out to be true, it is going to be awfully, awfully difficult to see this one getting past the number when push comes to shove. Expect a game in the 30s, not in the 40s.

Minnesota vs. Green Bay Picks & Tips: Under 46