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December 31st, 2012 By Jack Wilshire

5Dimes SportsbookMy 2012 Chick-Fil-A Bowl picks between the Clemson Tigers and the LSU Tigers are all set and ready to go here at Cappers Info. The Chick-Fil-A Bowl kickoff starts at 7:30 p.m. ET at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, GA, and I’m going to be your expert college football handicapper that points you towards the winning bet for the Clemson vs. LSU game.

2012 Chick-Fil-A Bowl
LSU Tigers (10-2, 5-7 ATS) -6
Clemson Tigers (10-2, 8-4 ATS) +6
Over/Under 59

If you just blindly look at the Bayou Bengals, you have to think that this game should easily stay beneath a ‘total’ of 59. The last time that a ‘total’ was this high in an LSU game was back in 2008 against the North Texas Mean Green, and that came in a game where the Tigers were favored by 42 points against a team with an exciting offense. However, there are definitely some things that I really don’t like about LSU right now. I don’t like the fact that P Brad Wing has been suspended for this one, and that really could give the Clemson offense the upper hand in certain situations.

Of course, one look at Clemson, and this is a game that should get beyond the number quite easily. The Tigers played to 110 points against the NC State Wolfpack, and they put up an average of 46.5 points per game this year against teams outside of the SEC. Of course, the team also only put up a total of 43 points in two games against SEC teams. QB Tajh Boyd threw for 3,550 yards and 34 TDs, and he rushed for 492 yards and nine scores. RB Andre Ellington was one of the top rushers in the ACC with 1,034 yards and eight trips to the end zone, while the team’s top two receivers, WR DeAndre Hopkins and WR Sammy Watkins, totaled just under 2,000 yards. Hopkins, the ACC all-time leader in receiving yards in a career, had 16 touchdowns as well.

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And then there’s the tiebreaker: Last year’s bowl game. Clemson gave up 70 points to the West Virginia Mountaineers in the Orange Bowl, and it was blown out of the water. LSU is clearly going to be smarting after getting shut out last year in the BCS National Championship Game, and it is going to want to prove to the rest of the world that it has a team that can contend for all of the marbles once again next year. I think that QB Zach Mettenberger can put up some respectable numbers in this game, and the end result is going to push this one beyond the number.

LSU vs. Clemson Picks & Tips: Over 59

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December 31st, 2012 By Jack Wilshire

BovadaThe Iowa State Cyclones and the Tulsa Golden Hurricane are set to kick off the 2012 Liberty Bowl on Monday 12/31, and I’m set to make my Liberty Bowl pick for the affair at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, TN. Kickoff is set for 3:30 ET, and I’ve got the perfect NCAA football pick for the Liberty Bowl.

2012 Liberty Bowl
Iowa State Cyclones (6-6, 5-6-1 ATS) -1
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (10-3, 7-5 ATS) +1
Over/Under 51

When these two teams met the first time around, the over/under was just 50.5 points, and the game got to 61. In that game, Tulsa only rushed for 160 yards as a team, and Iowa State was still using the lousy QB Steele Jantz under center. Why then, have the oddsmakers only moved this ‘total’ up a half point? It just doesn’t make all that much sense to me.

Iowa State’s offense is underrated with QB Sam Richardson calling the shots. He has a great football IQ, and he knows when to take off and run with the football. In the games that he quarterbacked this year, the Cyclones put up 75 points combined against the West Virginia Mountaineers and the Kansas Jayhawks. Granted, those two teams don’t have the greatest defenses in the world, but it’s not like Tulsa is a defensive world beater either. The Cyclones have also struggled defensively, allowing at least 21 points in nine straight games and averaging conceding 27.6 points per game in that stretch.

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And then there is the crazy Golden Hurricane. This team can really fly around the field when given the chance to do so, as we saw in the final four games of the season when the team outgained its foes by an average of 217.0 yards per game. RB Alex Singleton rushed for 21 TDs, and each of RB Trey Watts, RB Ja’Terian Douglas, and RB Alex Singleton averaged calling the ball at least 10 times per game. The three each had at least 765 yards on the ground, and they combined for almost 2,600 yards in 13 games. It is clear that WR Keyarris Garrett could be a factor as well after he caught 64 passes for 826 yards and nine TDs. There are just too many offensive weapons here for the Golden Hurricane to be held under 28 points, and if that turns out to be the case, there is no reason to think that the Liberty Bowl won’t get past the ‘total’.

Iowa State vs. Tulsa Picks & Tips: Over 51

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December 31st, 2012 By Jack Wilshire

The Sun Bowl is one of the games on the college football bowl schedule this year, and today, I’m set to make my NCAA football pointspread picks for the ‘total’ in this clash. The USC Trojans and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are going to do battle at Sun Bowl Stadium in El Paso, TX. Join me for my Sun Bowl tips for this 2:00 p.m. ET kickoff that can be seen on CBS.

I’ve got a tough time backing the under in a Georgia Tech game, knowing just how bad this team has been defensively at the ends of games this year. The Ramblin’ Wreck are just insanely thin, and regardless of who the defensive coordinator has been for this team, they have failed to rotate players in and out of the fold because the starting eleven are generally a heck of a lot better than anything that is waiting in the wings behind them. That being said, just about everything else in this game point towards it being a lower scoring affair.

2012 Sun Bowl
USC Trojans (7-5, 3-9 ATS) -7.5
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (6-7, 8-5 ATS) -2.5
Over/Under 64.5

QB Matt Barkley is out of the fold in this one, and that’s going to leave QB Max Wittek to make his second career start. At least this one will be easier than his first start, which came against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, but that doesn’t mean that he is ready to really take advantage of all of the weapons that this offense has at its disposal. I’m shocked that the ‘total’ didn’t drop at all in this game, as Wittek clearly isn’t nearly as good as Barkley is, and this is going to likely decrease USC’s point production by a dead minimum of a touchdown in this game.

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And then of course, there is the triple option offense. The Yellow Jackets are going to run the heck out of the football, and odds have it, it is going to become awfully frustrating for the Trojans. The clock could really just melt away in the second half of this game if G-Tech is ahead in this one, as I think there is a distinct possibility of happening. If the Jackets aren’t ahead, they probably are having one of these games where they are going to account for 250 yards or so for the game. Either way that I slice this one, it’s all coming up ‘under’ in a game that should absolutely be lined nowhere near the 60s in my eyes.

USC vs. Georgia Tech Picks & Tips: Under 64.5

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December 29th, 2012 By Jack Wilshire

BovadaThe TCU Horned Frogs and the Michigan State Spartans are set to kick off the 2012 Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl on Saturday 12/29, and I’m set to make my Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl pick for the affair at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe, AZ. Kickoff is set for 10:15 ET, and I’ve got the perfect NCAA football pick for the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl.

2012 Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
TCU Horned Frogs (7-5, 5-7 ATS) -2
Michigan State Spartans (6-6, 4-8 ATS) +2
Over/Under 40.5

I’m going to start off by saying that teasing anything in this game is probably a great idea, though I think that I would stick with Michigan State with either side of this ‘total’. The ‘over’ is probably the safer call, as it is tough to envision most any bowl game not getting to at least 34 points, but in the end, I think that a straight play for the game is better suited playing the ‘under’ than anything else, as these two defenses are just flat out nasty.

The Horned Frogs have had some problems this year, but those problems have come against teams with some truly elite offenses in the Big XII. Throw out middle of the season games against Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia, all of which have out of this world offenses, and what’s left are eight games with just 15.8 points per game allowed. The club ranked 18th in the land in total defense at 332.0 yards per game, a number that was well under 280 yards when you take away those four previously mentioned outings, and was 10th in the land in rush defense at 103.9 yards per game. I also want to point out that QB Trevone Boykin, in spite of his respectable year, is still nothing more than a backup quarterback that really isn’t ready to play at this level in my eyes on a regular basis.

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I’m going to call QB Andrew Maxwell for what he truly was this year: Terrible. He had a ton of pomp and circumstance for his arrival as a starter with QB Kirk Cousins now playing in the NFL, but he completed just 52.9 percent of his passes, averaged 6.0 yards per pass attempt, and had almost as many picks (9) as he did TDs (13). That just doesn’t cut it when push comes to shove. The only thing that kept MSU in games this year was its defense, which held every single team to 28 points or fewer on the campaign. Odds have it, TCU is going to be another one of these teams that gets stuck in the low- to mid-teens when push comes to shove, and if that turns out to be the case, it’s tough to see the Buffalo Wild Wings spread reaching the ‘total’.

TCU vs. Michigan State Picks & Tips: Under 40.5

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December 29th, 2012 By Jack Wilshire

I’ve been studying the ‘total’ for the Alamo Bowl odds for quite some time, and I’m ready to make my Alamo Bowl picks for the clash between the Oregon State Beavers and the Texas Longhorns. The Texas vs. Oregon State kickoff is set for 6:45 p.m. ET at the Alamodome in San Antonio, TX, and I’m going to show you which way to bet on college football to make your CFB pick on for this great game.

2012 Alamo Bowl
Texas Longhorns (8-4, 5-7 ATS) +3.5
Oregon State Beavers (9-3, 8-4 ATS) -3.5
Over/Under 57.5

I never like to back ‘overs’ on teams that don’t have solid starting quarterback situation. If there was a doubt about the situation for Head Coach Mack Brown, he ended his debate by suspending QB Case McCoy for this game. That’s one quarterback problem down, as QB David Ash is going to go from start to finish for the Longhorns barring injury. But the problem that I have is that Oregon State’s quarterback situation is extremely suspect. I expected to see that QB Sean Mannion was going to be the man under center, but in the end, Head Coach Mike Riley has chosen QB Cody Vaz instead. Vaz has the better numbers, but the team just doesn’t seem to respond to his time under center, and that worries me for sure.

The Texas defense also has a heck of a lot to prove. This is a unit that was trampled by the Oklahoma Sooners, the Baylor Bears, the Kansas State Wildcats, and the West Virginia Mountaineers also held the Iowa State Cyclones, Texas Tech Red Raiders, TCU Horned Frogs, and Kansas Jayhawks down. It is a unit that has a heck of a lot of potential and some real NFL talent on it, but thanks to the Big XII schedule, the numbers just aren’t all that great. Oregon State too, has some defenders that could ultimately make it to the next level, and it wasn’t a mistake that 10 of the 12 teams on the slate were held down to 27 points or fewer.

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In the end, this ‘total’ is just far too high. It’s tough to not notice the 72 combined points in the Civil War against the Oregon Ducks and the 76 combined points against the Cal Golden Bears in Oregon State games. It’s also tough to see how a Texas defense that was crushed for so many big time performances is going to step up to the task in this one against a Pac-12 opponent that has the ability to score so many points. But throw in a murky quarterback quandary for both teams and the fact that these defenses have some real talent, and the makings are right for the Alamo Bowl to be a bit of a low scoring bowl game that could go either way.

Texas vs. Oregon State Picks & Tips: Under 57.5

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December 28th, 2012 By Jack Wilshire

5Dimes SportsbookMy 2012 Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl picks between the Arizona State Sun Devils and the Navy Midshipmen are all set and ready to go here at Cappers Info. The Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl kickoff starts at 4:00 p.m. ET at AT&T Park in San Francisco, CA, and I’m going to be your expert college football handicapper that points you towards the winning bet for the Arizona State vs. Navy game.

2012 Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Navy Midshipmen (8-4, 4-8 ATS) +14
Arizona State Sun Devils (7-5, 7-5 ATS) -14
Over/Under 53

If you just look at what the Midshipmen have been doing lately, you would think that this would be an automatic ‘under’ game. The team has put up just 38 points over the course of its last two games, and the defense has held three out of four teams to 17 points or fewer. However, I’m not really all that sure that this is the route to go with this game on Saturday afternoon in the Golden State.

Though the Middies have scored some fewer points in these last few weeks, the offense has been a heck of a lot more dynamic and efficient with QB Keenan Reynolds calling the shots. Reynolds does a great job taking care of the football, and he is just a better passer than QB Trey Miller. The Naval Academy also has some dynamic rushers in RB Noah Copeland and RB Gee Gee Greene, who combined for over 1,400 rushing yards on the campaign. Greene was also the team’s leading receiver with 303 yards and two trips to the end zone, albeit on just 17 receptions. The Midshipmen also haven’t been very good when it comes to defense this year, allowing 388.9 yards per game. The club allowed 50 to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and 41 to the Troy Trojans in two of the worst games of the year, though a 34-7 loss to the Penn State Nittany Lions was right up there as well amongst the worst defensive showings of the year.

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Arizona State has been all over the place this year. The team has six games with at least 41 points scored, but a few games with 21 points or fewer as well. Obviously, if this turns out to be one of those games with 40+ points scored, this one will get beyond the ‘total’. If not, it could be problematic, but it definitely isn’t an impossible happening to get to the number. Against teams with relatively quirky, high octane offenses, the Sun Devils allowed 43 to the Oregon Ducks, 45 to the UCLA Bruins, and 34 to the Arizona Wildcats. That’s more along the lines of what I’m expecting on Saturday afternoon, and in the end, I expect to see both of these teams get into the 30s.

Navy vs. Arizona State Picks & Tips: Over 53

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December 28th, 2012 By Jack Wilshire

BovadaThe West Virginia Mountaineers and the Syracuse Orange are set to kick off the 2012 Pinstripe Bowl on Saturday 12/29, and I’m set to make my Pinstripe Bowl pick for the affair at New Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, NY. Kickoff is set for 3:15 ET, and I’ve got the perfect NCAA football pick for the Pinstripe Bowl.

2012 Pinstripe Bowl
West Virginia Mountaineers (7-5, 5-7 ATS) -3.5
Syracuse Orange (7-5, 6-5-1 ATS) +3.5
Over/Under 72.5

As bad as it is to take the ‘over’ in a game like this one, where seemingly everyone is betting the ‘over’, I still feel like I really don’t have all that much of a hope if I bet the ‘under’. Mother Nature is going to be featuring some snow in this one, but aside from the snow, the rest of the weather conditions really aren’t going to be all that bad. The temperatures are low, but wind shouldn’t be a factor, and it’s not like we’re going to see a mix of wind and rain that could really mess up the quarterbacks and the receivers.

The West Virginia offense is just flat out awesome. QB Geno Smith threw for 4,001 yards with 40 TDs on the season, and he added in some mobility as well. He has two of the top receivers in the entire country in WR Stedman Bailey and WR Tavon Austin. Austin even had a game where he rushed for over 200 yards this year, but in his main trade as a wide out, he caught 109 passes for 1,266 yards and 12 TDs. Bailey is the man at the head of the class though, as he caught 106 balls for 1,501 yards and an NCAA leading 23 TDs. RB Andrew Buie can get the ball moving on the ground, and WR J.D. Woods would be as good as a No. 2 receiver on most teams in the nation in spite of the fact that he is a third option here in Morgantown. On top of this, the West Virginia defense stopped virtually no one all season long, allowing 38.1 ponts and 469.6 yards per game.

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It’s not like Syracuse isn’t going to be able to take advantage of this. QB Ryan Nassib is an NFL caliber quarterback, and he almost quietly threw for 3,607 yards and 24 scores against nine INTs on the season. He and Smith are really largely the same quarterback. It’s not like Syracuse doesn’t have its share of receivers as well. WR Alec Lemon is incredibly talented, and WR Marcus Sales is an up and comer as well. These two men combined for 132 catches, 1,914 yards, and 15 scores this year. RB Jerome Smith and RB Prince-Tyson Gulley had 1,636 rushing yards and 10 scores as well between them. The bottom line here for me is that West Virginia is going to do its scoring, and Syracuse should be able to keep up. I think that this has the potential to be the highest scoring bowl game of the year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this one tops 100 total points.

West Virginia vs. Syracuse Picks & Tips: Over 72.5

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December 28th, 2012 By Jack Wilshire

The Russell Athletic Bowl is one of the games on the college football bowl schedule this year, and today, I’m set to make my NCAA football pointspread picks for the ‘total’ in this clash. The Rutgers Scarlet Knights and the Virginia Tech Hokies are going to do battle at the Florida Citrus Bowl in Orlando, FL. Join me for my Russell Athletic Bowl tips for this 5:30 p.m. ET kickoff that can be seen on ESPN.

The Russell Athletic Bowl isn’t a game that is going to be for the faint of heart, as there aren’t two teams that I hate more in this bowl season than these two playing against each other. Virginia Tech is a team that had Top 10 talent this year but underachieved and had to win its final two games of the season just to make it to a bowl game, while Rutgers overachieved but ultimately screwed the pooch with its multiple opportunities to lock up the Big East crown. This is the punishment for both of these clubs.

2012 Russell Athletic Bowl
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-3, 7-5 ATS) +2
Virginia Tech Hokies (6-6, 3-9 ATS) -2
Over/Under 41

Both of these offenses flat out stink. QB Logan Thomas and QB Gary Nova both only succeeded this year in figuring out how to screw up the big time moments, though both did at least come up with a total of over 20 touchdowns on the campaign between their arm and their legs. Rutgers ranked 102nd in the country in total offense at 341.1 yards per game, while the team also came in at just 96th in scoring at 22.4 points per game. Virginia Tech wasn’t all that much better at 391.8 YPG (71st) and 26.1 PPG (81st). The two teams combined for exactly zero games with more than 37 points scored in it against FBS opponents out of 22 combined games.

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It’s not all that often that you see me liking an ‘under’ in a bowl game like this one where the weather will be good and the ‘total’ is so low, but this is an exception to the rule. I’m just not 100% certain that either Virginia Tech or Rutgers is going to be all that thrilled to be here in the Sunshine State for the Russell Athletic Bowl, and as a result, I expect to see a sloppy game with more turnovers than touchdowns and plenty of gaffes along the way.

Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech Picks & Tips: Under 41

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December 28th, 2012 By Jack Wilshire

BovadaThe Minnesota Golden Gophers and the Texas Tech Red Raiders are set to kick off the 2012 Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas on Friday 12/28, and I’m set to make my Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas pick for the affair at Reliant Stadium in Houston, TX. Kickoff is set for 9:00 ET, and I’ve got the perfect NCAA football pick for the Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas.

2012 Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas
Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-6, 7-5 ATS) +13
Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5, 6-6 ATS) -13
Over/Under 55.5

This is a sucker’s bet if we have ever seen one. Over 65% of the bets are on the ‘over’ in this game, yet the ‘total’ is dropping at a steady clip and is now down to 55.5 and might get lower by the time this one kicks off. My big thing here is that the implied final score of this game is basically 34-21. Any guesses as to how many times this whole season that the Golden Gophers scored more than 17 points in a game? Exactly four times, one of which came against the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels, and one of which came against New Hampshire. There’s just no reason to think if Minnesota can’t score more than 13 on Northwestern of 17 on Illinois, that it can score more than that on Texas Tech.

Remember that the Red Raiders did put together quite a few decent defensive games this year. Though a number of these games did come against lousy teams, T-Tech did hold five clubs to 14 points or fewer this year. The college football “expert handicapper” that wants to back the ‘over’ in this one also thinks that the Texas Tech offense can get the job done and do whatever it wants against the Minnesota defense. What is forgotten is the fact that the Gophers ended the year ranked 11th in the country in pass defense at 178.5 yards per game, and their secondary is a heck of a lot more talented than one would think.

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Remember too, that Texas Tech only scored 24 points or fewer in three of its final five games of the season and was held to an average of just 32.6 points per game against bowl teams this year. If you take out the points scored in overtime, that brings that average down to just 30.1 points per game. If that’s all that Texas Tech plans on scoring against the Golden Gophers, I just don’t see a way how this game is going to reach this relatively average ‘total’.

Minnesota vs. Texas Tech Picks & Tips: Under 55.5

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December 28th, 2012 By Jack Wilshire

The Armed Forces Bowl is one of the games on the college football bowl schedule this year, and today, I’m set to make my NCAA football pointspread picks for the ‘total’ in this clash. The Rice Owls and the Air Force Falcons are going to do battle at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, TX. Join me for my Armed Forces Bowl tips for this 11:45 a.m. ET kickoff that can be seen on ESPN.

This is a tough one to cap for sure, knowing that both of these teams have been brutally inconsistent this year, particularly against teams that have qualified for bowl games. Both of these offenses are averaging over four touchdowns per game, and both of these defenses are allowing at least four touchdowns per game, but that doesn’t mean that I think this is a slam dunk ‘over’ proposal.

2012 Armed Forces Bowl
Rice Owls (6-6, 7-4-1 ATS) +2.5
Air Force Falcons (6-6, 3-9 ATS) -2.5
Over/Under 61

The Owls are the hotter of the two teams right now, as they have put together four straight wins, averaging 40.5 points per game in that stretch. The club averaged just 28.0 points per game this year in the just three games against bowl teams. Air Force only averaged 24.3 points per game against teams that made it to bowl games, and it really struggled down the stretch against its last four foes of the year, averaging 16.5 points per game. Granted, we do know that both of these teams really do struggle defensively, and our expectations are that the clubs will put up better than their average numbers against bowl teams. But, as you can see, there is still some leeway to give here before I get into the 60s.

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In the end, I really do think that the Falcons’ triple option offense is going to be stuffed up as the game goes on. The Rice defense really has played better ball over the course of the last month of the season, and I just don’t have the confidence that Air Force is going to be able to put all that many points on the board. The Owls are probably going to win this game when push comes to shove, but that’s not my concern. My concern is definitely with this one staying beneath the number.

Rice vs. Air Force Picks & Tips: Under 61

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December 26th, 2012 By Jack Wilshire

BovadaThe Cincinnati Bearcats and the Duke Blue Devils are set to kick off the 2012 Belk Bowl on Thursday 12/27, and I’m set to make my Belk Bowl pick for the affair at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC. Kickoff is set for 6:30 ET, and I’ve got the perfect NCAA football pick for the Belk Bowl.

2012 Belk Bowl
Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3, 8-3 ATS) -9.5
Duke Blue Devils (6-6, 6-6 ATS) +9.5
Over/Under 60.5

The big question that I have to ask myself in this one is whether I trust the Duke defense or the Cincinnati offense, and the way that things have been going for both of these teams, that’s not really a spot that I like to be in. On one hand, I have a Blue Devils defense that has coughed up at least 42 points in six games this year. On the other hand, I have a Bearcats offense that has been through two quarterbacks, and has scored 27 points or fewer five times on the campaign. Though that stat isn’t so bad, it is notable that UC has only scored more than 35 points in an FBS game once all year long.

I’m also really not that keen to the way that the Cincinnati offense operates itself. QB Brendon Kay isn’t particularly all that great, and he doesn’t have a receiver that has caught more than 40 passes, or that has even 600 yards. RB George Winn is clearly the star of the show, as he has 227 carries, 1,204 yards, and 12 TDs on the campaign. The good news for points is that Kay is averaging 8.5 yards per pass attempt this year, and the yards per catch averages for TE Travis Kelce and WR Kenbrell Thompkins has gone up quite a bit since Kay has taken over.

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In the end, I just have to stick with my gut in this one in hopes that the Duke defense is going to come up with a few plays when push comes to shove. The Blue Devils scored 45 against the Miami Hurricanes in a game that most will point at as the reason that this one will go ‘over’ the number, but to the contrary, I’m looking at the fact that they scored an average of just 20.8 points per game prior to that point over the course of their previous five games. All of those games came against teams that either were bowl eligible this year, or would have been if not for a bowl ban. It’ll get close, but this one won’t get to the ‘total’.

Cincinnati vs. Duke Picks & Tips: Under 60.5

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December 26th, 2012 By Jack Wilshire

The Military Bowl is one of the games on the college football bowl schedule this year, and today, I’m set to make my NCAA football pointspread picks for the ‘total’ in this clash. The San Jose State Spartans and the Bowling Green Falcons are going to do battle at RFK Stadium in Washington DC. Join me for my Military Bowl tips for this 3:00 p.m. ET kickoff that can be seen on ESPN.

There have been just a ton of ‘over’ contests early here in the bowl season, and this is another one of these ‘totals’ where I think that matters are just too low. The first thing to note is that the Spartans have put up some great stats this year, but that has come against a lousy WAC. The only games this year that SJSU played against teams that were legit this year came against the Utah State Aggies (76 total points), the San Diego State Aztecs (72 points), and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (95 total points). And you’re going to tell me that this game should have a ‘total’ in the mid-40s?

2012 Military Bowl
San Jose State Spartans (10-2, 10-2 ATS) -7.5
Bowling Green Falcons (8-4, 8-4 ATS) +7.5
Over/Under 44

The Falcons have a fantastic defense, but their schedule too, was relatively weak this year. The Florida Gators, Virginia Tech Hokies, Ohio Bobcats, Kent State Golden Flashes, and Toledo Rockets were the five bowl eligible teams that they played against, and those teams averaged putting up 29.4 points per game against this “vaunted” defense. The numbers are great for Bowling Green, allowing 289.7 yards and 15.8 points per game on the season, but again, take out the cupcake games that really don’t count against teams like the Eastern Michigan Eagles (or worse), and I see a defense that just isn’t all that special.

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So in the end, this is a game that I think is going to get into at least the mid-50s, if not more. The Falcons did put up at least 21 points in each of their last eight games on the campaign, and though they did end up playing just one ‘over’ game in that bunch, they should get there again in this one. If they do, there is no reason to think that San Jose State can’t get to at least 30, something that happened in all but one game down the stretch of the last month and a half of the season.

San Jose State vs. Bowling Green Picks & Tips: Over 44

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