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May 18th, 2013 By Andrew Ryan

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Horse Racing Event: 2013 Preakness Stakes
Event Date: Saturday, May 18th, 2013
Location: Pimlico Racetrack – Baltimore, MD
Runners: 3 Year Old Colts
Race Number & Post Time: Race #12 6:20 PM EST
Current Preakness Stakes Odds Favorite: #1 Orb (1/1)
Racing Form: Free Preakness Stakes Past Performances

Preakness Stakes Post Positions & Preakness Stakes Odds
1: Orb (1/1)
2: Goldencents (8/1)
3: Titletown Five (30/1)
4: Departing (6/1)
5: Mylute (5/1)
6: Oxbow (15/1)
7: Will Take Charge (12/1)
8: Govenor Charlie (12/1)
9: Itsmyluckyday (10/1)

We weren’t really all that wild about the Kentucky Derby favorite, Orb, and we aren’t thrilled by him here at the Preakness Stakes either. That being said, we most certainly realize at this point that we can’t take him out of the money. He is definitively one of the best two or three three-year old horses in the world right now after winning in the muck at Churchill Downs, and he is capable on winning the Triple Crown. That being said, there is no way that this should be an odds on horse, and all of the exotic prices are going to stink with him involved in them, and we think that we have a possible scenario where this all of a sudden could become a bettors race.

The key horse in this entire race believe it or not, is going to be Titletown Five. Is D. Wayne Lukas’ horse going to win the Preakness Stakes? Of course he isn’t. But what he can do is tire out the other frontrunners, which we expect to include Orb since he has the inside post. Go back and watch all of Titletown Five’s races. Seemingly in all of them, the horse(s) that came out to the lead with him were all dead by the time the field got to the final turn. This is a rabbit of a horse, and whatever jockey goes and takes his horse out to challenge Titletown Five at the start of this race is going to end up losing his (or her) mount in the future.

There is definitively value in playing the two major players from the Kentucky Derby that badly underachieved. It’s amazing to think that both Itsmyluckyday and Goldencents are featuring the exact same odds at the Preakness Stakes, in a nine-horse field with good weather expected, as they were in the Kentucky Derby. We know that both of these horses were total duds at the Derby, but we’re also willing to throw that race out. The weather was lousy and there were 19 horses running in the field, and for every single one of those colts, that was the first race of its kind. This one is going to be a lot more what we’re used to seeing in the prep races with just nine horses, and it should play into the hands of the horses that succeeded the most in those prep races.

We also have a bit of an eye on Govenor Charlie as well. Unfortunately, we don’t have a whole heck of a lot of races to look at when we see Govenor Charlie, but what we do see is a horse that was incredibly impressive at the Sunland Derby, and we have a horse that has a tremendous pedigree. We think that Trainer Bob Baffert knew what he was doing when he pulled Govenor Charlie out of the Kentucky Derby, and the thought must have been that he could quite possibly end up pulling off a big upset at the Preakness Stakes with a horse that few know much about.

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The race will be won in the first half mile as we see it. If Orb is out there running with Titletown Five and the fractions are incredibly fast, we have matters right where we want them. We are hoping to see all three of the other horses that we have mentioned, Itsmyluckyday, Govenor Charlie, and Goldencents not that far off of the pace. Goldencents might even be riding in front, which is where Jockey Kevin Krigger would love to place him as long as the clip isn’t blazing fast. We are admitting to be a bit afraid of Mylute and of Departing, but we just don’t like the prices of either of these horses. Closers don’t typically do all that phenomenally at the Preakness Stakes, as we have seen many try, but ultimately, speed racers and stalkers usually end up at the front of the field, and the closers run out of space and time. That’s why we’re taking Departing out of it, aside from the fact that we just don’t trust that the Illinois Derby field that he bested was anywhere near as good as the one that he’ll see here at Pimlico on Saturday.

It will be interesting to see where Jockey Martin Garcia, who won this race in 2010 board Lookin At Lucky will ultimately position this colt. If it’s at the front of the field, Govenor Charlie could end up on the board. We think in the end though, that he will tire out just a bit, but he’ll still barely finish on the board for the super. The best three year old colt in the world this year might be Verrazano, who isn’t running in this race, and many think that the best of the best is Orb. However, we aren’t so sure that Jockey Kevin Krigger doesn’t have the best of the bunch. Give Goldencents a clean ride, and we think that he will win this race at a tremendous price. In this race, we’re going to take a 1/2/8/9 box of both trifectas and superfectas, knowing if Orb does end up winning this race as he is expected to do, that we should still be in it with a shout with some of the other best horses in the game. Exacta prices won’t pay off well enough unless Orb is out of the Top 2, so be sure to take the value plays.

2013 Preakness Stakes Picks (Superfecta Pick)
#2 Goldencents
#9 Itsmyluckyday
#1 Orb
#8 Govenor Charlie

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May 3rd, 2013 By Andrew Ryan

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Horse racing betting fans, head to the mutuels and get ready to bet the Kentucky Derby! Now that the Kentucky Derby odds have been posted, we are going to be taking a look at each of the horses in the Kentucky Derby post positions and the ones that have some tremendous value. Finally, we’ll be set to make our Kentucky Derby trifecta picks and Kentucky Derby superfecta picks for the biggest race of the entire year!

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Kentucky Derby Post Positions & Kentucky Derby Odds
1: Black Onyx (50 to 1)
2: Oxbow (30 to 1)
3: Revolutionary (10 to 1)
4: Golden Soul (50 to 1)
5: Normandy Invasion (12 to 1)
6: Mylute (15 to 1)
7: Giant Finish (50 to 1)
8: Goldencents (5 to 1)
9: Overanalyze (15 to 1)
10: Palace Malice (20 to 1)
11: Lines of Battle (30 to 1)
12: Itsmyluckyday (15 to 1)
13: Falling Sky (50 to 1)
14: Verrazano (4 to 1)
15: Charming Kitten (20 to 1)
16: Orb (7 to 2)
17: Will Take Charge (20 to 1)
18: Frac Daddy (50 to 1)
19: Java’s War (15 to 1)
20: Vyjack (15 to 1)

All year long, we’ve been watching the Kentucky Derby prep races and have been monitoring all of the best horses in the field. We think that the value has been sucked out of some of these horses thanks to their morning line odds, and that includes the favorite, Orb. We just aren’t a believe in this horse at this point. Orb is going to try to run a similar race to the one that Verrazano is going to run (more on him in a second), and he is coming from the far outside in post No. 16 to try to do it. We love the fact that this is a horse that is undefeated as a three year old, but without a single Beyer Speed Rating of 100+, we are pessimistic of Orb’s chances of running the 105+ that will be required to win this race.

Similarly, we think that both Goldencents and Revolutionary are just overrated at this point as well. Goldencents is one of the top three-year old colts in the world, no doubt, but 5 to 1 on the Santa Anita Derby winner is just far too cheap of a price. Revolutionary has been an impressive favorite for his entire career, but there is a real question as to who he has run against. The Grade II Louisiana Derby is the best that he’s got, and that wasn’t a fantastic field by any stretch of the imagination.

So where does the value lie on the Kentucky Derby lines? As we see it, the far outside. Vyjack is a horse that has only been beaten once in his career, and that came in a game effort against Verrazano. Java’s War is the biggest closer in the field and one of the biggest closers that we have seen in years, and though we hate the fact that it is going to be a slow and potentially muddy track, we also know that this will be an uncomfortable position for a number of horses to be in. That 15 to 1 price tag is a heck of a number on a colt that is arguably a furlong at the Tampa Bay Derby away from beating Verrazano.

Further on the inside, the horses that we are going to be keeping an eye on are Normandy’s Invasion and Palace Malice. Palace Malice has been running some great workouts of late, and we have to remember that he was a 5 to 1 favorite at the Blue Grass Stakes, which turned out to be one of the most competitive of the Kentucky Derby prep races. Normandy’s Invasion ran second at the Wood Memorial, also one of the most competitive of the races in the Spring, and we know that this is a horse that has a ton of fight in him. He fought off Vyjack for second at the Wood, and he darn near gave Verrazano a scare in the final strides as well.

Kentucky Derby BettingHowever, we have saved the best for last. We hate the fact that Itsmyluckyday has been run 10 times in his career, as that is generally a sign of weakness in a horse. However, he was second in the Florida Derby to Orb, and he had a shot to nail him in the final furlong before being outkicked. There might be a little something more in the tank, though. If Itsmyluckyday, a horse that is better bred for the distance than the speed anyway, can make it that extra eighth of a mile and something happens that Orb can’t make it, we definitely want the 30 to 1 on our side. We don’t see that much difference between Orb and Itsmyluckyday.

In the end though, this is a race for Verrazano to lose. We think that the undefeated three-year old champion should have been installed as the morning line favorite on the Kentucky Derby odds, and we think that post position No. 14 is the perfect one for him. When we look at this horse, we see Big Brown, the colt that was probably the best three-year old that we have seen in the sport in quite a few years. Big Brown wasn’t able to win the Belmont Stakes, but he came darn close, and had he had a jockey that was willing to push him all the way through that 1 1/2 mile run instead of pulling him up with an eighth of a mile to go, history might look upon him very differently.

We know that Verrazano is going to be getting out of the blocks quickly, but he’ll let Falling Sky get past him on the inside and tuck right next to him. There’s a great chance that he is going to be able to keep Orb to his outside for this whole race, and that will make things very difficult for the Florida Derby champ, as he will be required to run a longer race than most if he has to stay to the outside of Verrazano for the majority of the run. We know that Vyjack, Normandy’s Invasion, and Itsmyluckyday are going to be right there as well. Java’s War will fade to the back of the pack early, and though closers don’t generally do well in the slop, we think that he is going to have a chance to get the job done. The key is going to be what happens in these final two furlongs when these horses are pushed harder than they have ever been pushed before. Verrazano has shown the heart of a champion, and he has already knocked off one of the previously undefeated horses in Vyjack with a great duel to the wire. Vyjack backed down and finished third in that race, allowing Normandy’s Invasion up for second. Will the same happen to Orb if he ends up in a duel with Verrazano? We tend to think so, and the punishment at the Derby is going to be falling off of the board.

That’s where Java’s War comes into play. There legitimately could be a six- or seven-wide scramble off of the far turn, and we think that all of these horses are going to get caught up in what they are all doing against each other. They’re not used to running in duels like this, while Java’s War is comfortable coming all the way up from the outside (or wherever on the track he has to go) to reach the wire in front of the field.

For the purposes of betting at the window, we are going to put Java’s War and Verrazano together boxed on top of Palace Malice, Itsmyluckyday, Normandy’s Invasion, and Vyjack in trifectas. We will probably also bet some win/place/show money on both Java’s War and Itsmyluckyday in case both Orb and Verrazano fall out of the top. For the purposes of making a superfecta pick though, we’re going to put Java’s War on top with Verrazano coming in a close second.

2013 Kentucky Derby Picks (Superfecta Pick)
#19 Java’s War
#14 Verrazano
#12 Itsmyluckyday
#20 Vyjack

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June 9th, 2012 By Andrew Ryan

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Horse Racing Event: 2012 Belmont Stakes
Date: Saturday, June 9th, 2012
Location: Belmont Park – Elmont, NY
Runners: 3 Year Olds
Belmont Stakes Post Time: Approximately 6:30 PM ET
Current Belmont Stakes Favorite: Dullahan (+190)
Racing Form: Click Here

Free 2012 Belmont Picks & Analysis: The 2012 Belmont Stakes field is expected to have 11 horses in it now that some of the colts have dropped out of the fold. We are set to look at the horses that are going to be running against the Belmont Stakes odds, and checking in on all of the horses now that I’ll Have Another has retired, ending his quest for the 2012 Triple Crown.

The Belmont Stakes list of horses is really starting to dwindle, as some of the top horses in the world right now like Hansen, Gemologist, Alpha, Bodemeister, and now most notably, I’ll Have Another are not going to be taking the 1 1/2 mile challenge at Belmont Park. That means that the new favorite to win this race is Dullahan, who is a comfortable +190 favorite on the Belmont Stakes betting lines at 5Dimes Sportsbook. We really like what Dullahan is bringing to the table in this race, especially with I’ll Have Another out of the fold, as we expect to see him be able to get the job done without all that much of a challenge from a crowded field like he had to deal with at the Kentucky Derby. Closers should be few and far between, especially after running for a mile and change before that last kick, and with a good post draw in the middle of the field, Dullahan should be able to stay out of trouble and make his way back towards the front of the field in the dying furlongs.

2012 Belmont Stakes Post Positions/Post Draws with Belmont Stakes Morning Lines
1: Street Life (12/1)
2: Unstoppable U (30/1)
3: Union Rags (6/1)
4: Atigun (30/1)
5: Dullahan (5/1)
6: Ravelo’s Boy (50/1)
7: Five Sixteen (50/1)
8: Guyana Star Dweej (50/1)
9: Paynter (8/1)
10: Optimizer (20/1)
11: I’ll Have Another (4/5, SCRATCHED)
12: My Adonis (20/1)

If not Dullahan, the question is whether or not Union Rags can get the job done. He is the only other horse that is going to be expected to challenge, and he is the +235 second choice on the board. He isn’t necessarily going to be the only one that might be able to finish strong in the stretch. We just don’t know if Union Rags is as good of a horse as some of the others in this field, and we wonder whether his Kentucky Derby odds were overblown.

And this is where things get interesting to say the least. Even a horse like Mark Valeski, who won the Peter Pan, or Right to Vote, who finished second in that race, are going to be sitting this race out. That being said, the only horse that ran in the Peter Pan finished third in the race in between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes right here in Elmont, and that is Street Life. Again, this is another horse that is going to try to close at the end of the race, and that really could become problematic with Dullahan and some of the other closers. This is a horse that didn’t race as a two-year old, and he only has a total of five races under his belt in his career. It’s scary to say the least.

The only other horse that is really being considered as one of the surprise horses in this field is Paynter. We definitely are concerned about Paynter, though. Trainer Bob Baffert didn’t bring this horse to any of the other Triple Crown races, and now, he is taking this horse up against I’ll Have Another instead of Bodemeister, who has already been beaten by the potential Triple Crown winner twice before. Paynter has had some fast, fast races, running a 100 and a 106 Beyer Speed Rating in his last two runs. However, this is once again, a bit of an inexperienced horse, as he never ran as a two-year old either. In the end though, those speed ratings are definitely notable, and that’s why Paynter is the fourth favorite on the board on the odds to win the Belmont Stakes.

The rest of these horses in the field just don’t do it for us. We have seen Optimizer run twice before in the Triple Crown races, and he wasn’t a factor in either of the runs. Unstoppable U has raced just twice in his career. Yes, he won both races, but that just doesn’t do it for us, knowing that he hasn’t ever sniffed a graded race before. And then there is Atigun, who might have a great name, but he has finished fifth or worse in all three of his graded stakes races in his career. The field rounds out with Five Sixteen, Guyana Star Dweej, and Ravelo’s Boy, all of which are going to likely be at least 30 to 1 or worse when the Belmont Stakes odds go off the board. Between them all, they have just three career wins in a ton of races and a grand total of zero races with speed ratings higher than 85.

The last horse to enter the 2012 Belmont Stakes field might be a sneaky horse to back. My Adonis might end up being a 30 to 1 horse when it is all said and done with, but the one thing that he has going for him is some speed. He is the colt that is going to be out in front right away assuming that he can get to the inside from all the way on the far post at the outset of the race, and with the breeding to make it the distance, we think that My Adonis could be a wire-to-wire type of horse.

Current Belmont Stakes Race Odds & Betting Lines (As Of 6/9/12)
Dullahan +190
UnionRags +235
Paynter +440
Street Life +850
Optimizer +1700
My Adonis +2000
Unstoppable U +2100
Atigun +2500
Ravelo’s Boy +4300
Five Sixteen +5000
Guyana Star Dweej +6600

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May 19th, 2011 By Andy "The Raven" Frank (Cappersinfo Contributor)

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We at Cappersinfo.com are always striving to bring you the very best in handicapping information including horce racing picks for popular events such as the Black Eyed Susan Stakes. Handicapper, blog contributor, and forum member, Andy Frank has a long horse racing resume that goes back over 30 years. Here is Andrew’s race analysis for Friday’s Black Eyed Susan Stakes which is being run at Pimlico on Friday at 4:45pm (EST).

Horse Racing Event: Black Eyed Susan Stakes
Event Date: Friday May 20th, 2011
Location: Pimlico Racecourse – Baltimore, MD
Runners: 3 Year Old Fillies
Race Number & Post Time: 6 go to the post at 4:46 PM EST RACE 10
Current Odds Favorite: #4 WYOMIA (9/5)

Race Analysis: A small but evenly matched field of 6 go post ward in the Black Eyed Susan Stakes being run on Friday as race 10 on the Pimlico card. Wyomia is the #4 and 9/5 morning line favorite. She is coming off a nice second place finish in the grade 1 Ashland Stakes run over the polytrack at Keeneland April 9th. She is third race back off a layoff and faced one of the other main contenders in this race in her first race back on March 12th in the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Wyomia won that race getting up in the final strides at just over 6/1. Also coming out of that same race is #1 Royal Delta who is listed as the third choice at 3/1 on the morning line. In the Suncoast Stakes Royal Delta was also first race off a long layoff and was bet down to the $1.60 favorite in the race. She ran second to last and never got a call, however in her second race back off the layoff she returned to her previous form winning convincingly by three lengths in a fast time. Now she sits on her third race back off the layoff and will not be the favorite this time around against Wyomia. Royal Delta however is the better horse and will turn the tables on Wyomia in this race. Second choice is #2 Hot Summer who figures to be the controlling speed and on the lead right out of the gate. Whether or not she can make the 1 mile and 1/8th distance is a big question mark. In fact of all 6 runners only #1 Royal Delta is not only bred to run all day by Empire Maker out of an AP Indy mare, but also is working like a horse sitting on a huge race. The last two works at Belmont were particularly impressive. She went 5 furlongs in 59 2/5 handily on May 8th which was the fastest of 29 works at that distance on the day. Then she worked a 4 furlong breeze in 48 flat on May 14th which was the 3rd fastest work at the distance of 80 different horses to work 4 furlongs that day. The rail has been good at Pimlico so far this meet winning at a 24% clip, and #1 Royal Delta has the breeding and current form to be the top contender and the horse you must wager on if 2/1 or more at the windows. Bet #1 Royal Delta across the board win, place and show. Also use her in exacta boxes with #4 Wyomia, and #2 Hot Summer.

Free Black Eyed Susan Picks: #1 Royal Delta Win/Place/Show, Ex Box 1-4, 1-2

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June 3rd, 2010 By Andrew Ryan

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Belmont Racetrack will take center stage when the Belmont Stakes betting action goes to post on Saturday. Today, we'll make our Belmont Stakes free picks that will help you cash in against the Belmont Stakes odds.

Fly Down (+450 at BetUS Sportsbook) – Fly Down becomes a very interesting selection in the Belmont Stakes because of his most recent win at the Grade II Dwyer on this same racetrack. Horses that have had success in the Big Apple in lead up races to the final leg of the Triple Crown have historically had plenty of success in the Belmont Stakes as well. Look no further than Summer Bird in 2009 or Birdstone in 2004 to show that you don't have to run in the first two legs of the Triple Crown to win the third. However, Fly Down was the second favorite choice in that race and doesn't really have a superb resume behind him coming into the Belmont Stakes. A ninth place finish at the Louisiana Derby is probably what kept trainer Nick Zito from entering him in either the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness Stakes, but Fly Down is certainly ready to challenge at the Belmont.

Ice Box (+300 at BetUS Sportsbook) – The morning line favorite for this event, Ice Box finished second at the Kentucky Derby to Super Saver. Many think that Ice Box's run in the Run for the Roses was more impressive than Super Saver's win, because he faced a very difficult ride that saw him have to rally from 19th place to nearly nip the winner at the stretch run before falling a tad flat. Many also feel that the run at 1 1/4 miles in which he ran out of a tad bit of gas may be a sign that he won't be able to last the entire 1 1/2 miles. However, there are a lot of weak links in this field, and we think that Ice Box is going to ultimately end up sticking in the money in spite of the fact that we're not so sure that he has the legs for the distance either.

First Dude (+350 at BetUS Sportsbook) – My, what a difference a race makes! First Dude was a huge longshot in the Preakness Stakes, but he bounced out to the lead early and nearly beat Lookin At Lucky at the wire. No one is doubting the fact that this horse can run the distance here at the Belmont, but our Belmont Stakes picks are going to be on him to come in second once again. First Dude will inevitably get out to the front of the pack yet again and try to run wire-to-wire, but it is incredibly rare to see a horse pull off that feat for a mile, let alone for a mile and a half. The odds aren't great here, but we can't ignore First Dude after that run in the Preakness.

Drosselmeyer (+1200 at BetUS Sportsbook) – This Belmont Stakes pick might surprise some, but Drosselmeyer was the odds on favorite to win the Dwyer over Fly Down for a good reason. He had a miserable run that day, slipping out of the gate and running into traffic that took him off of his game. Still, finishing second best was impressive against a reasonable crop of three year olds. If Drosselmeyer gets off to a clean start and ends up in a decent stalking lane, he should have the distance breeding in him to make his move at the wire. Last year, Summer Bird took down the Belmont Stakes after winning on this track the month before, and we expect Drosselmeyer to prove why he was odds on against the best of the three year olds that are running in horse racing's most grueling test.

Cappers Info Superfecta  – #7 Drosselmeyer – #11 First Dude – #6 Ice Box – #5 Fly Down

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May 14th, 2010 By Andrew Ryan

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Preakness Picks

If you're looking for early predictions for the colts that you should be throwing down on in the 135th Preakness Stakes, look no further than Cappers Info! We've got the race covered from wire to wire and have your winning superfecta all picked out!

#8 Super Saver (+200 at BetUS Sportsbook) – The favorite of the Preakness Stakes odds is once again the colt that won the Kentucky Derby. Jockey Calvin Borel has most famously come out and declared that his horse will win the Triple Crown, but the sledding is going to be very tough for him against this field of 12. Many are entered seemingly only to see to it that Super Saver doesn't win the second leg of the Triple Crown, as opposed to on Derby Day when it was every colt for himself. Don't be shocked if the man nicknamed Calvin "Bo-Rail" has a hard time getting inside position for his horse, which is going to make things difficult. In a longer race, we'd be picking Super Saver to come out on top. But we think there are too many landmines for him to really make a difference overall.

#6 Jackson Bend (+1200 at BetUS Sportsbook) – Jackson Bend is the longest shot on the board amongst horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby. Most famous for finishing second to Eskendereya in two prep races leading up to the Triple Crown, Jackson Bend isn't considered a tremendous threat to win this race, but perhaps horse racing betting fans should be paying more attention to him. This is a colt that didn't have a clean run at Churchill Downs, but still has a solid core of people working with him. Trainer Nick Zito thinks that this thoroughbred gives him the best shot at taking down a Triple Crown jewel, and jockey Mike Smith has been given the vote of confidence that he is the man that can take this horse to the winner's circle in spite of the fact that he had such a miserable 12th place finish in the Kentucky Derby.

#12 Dublin (+1000 at BetUS Sportsbook) – What a great price for a horse that may have some help in winning the race! If trainer D. Wayne Lukas has his way, his other entrant into this race, #4 Northern Giant will push the pace early on the rail. That would really serve two purposes. First would be to stretch out the stalkers in this field and make them run at a slightly more uncomfortable pace than perhaps they would be accustomed to. The second is to still right there on the rail and make Borel do something different to get past him. With the Dublin camp knowing this strategy, this could be the horse to come up right at the wire and get the job done.

#7 Lookin At Lucky (+300 at BetUS Sportsbook) – Many wondered whether or not Lookin At Lucky could successfully pull off the Kentucky Derby on the rail or not. Not. Running out of the #1 spot at Churchill Downs for a colt that isn't a speed horse is virtually impossible. It would've been quite the feat had Lookin At Lucky pulled it off, especially on a sloppy, and very unpredictable track. However, this colt is back, and he's very deserving of being called a favorite in this race. After all, he still has six wins under his belt already and, save Super Saver, he is the only other three year old horse that is running in any of the Triple Crown races that can say that he is already worth a million bucks! At post #7, things still aren't ideal for Lookin At Lucky, but he'll be in store for a significantly cleaner run on Saturday than he was two weeks ago, and the end result should make him the horse to beat.

Cappers Info Superfecta  – #7 Lookin At Lucky – #12 Dublin – #6 Jackson Bend – #8 Super Saver

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April 30th, 2010 By Andrew Ryan

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Kentucky Derby Picks

Confused with what to do with the 20 horse field in the Kentucky Derby this year? No worries! Cappers Info has you covered! Here is a look at the four horses that we are projecting out of this crop of three year olds to be the ones that are on the board at the end of Saturday afternoon's big race at Churchill Downs!

Paddy O'Prado (+1600 at BetUS Sportsbook - 100% Bonus) – A little luck of the Irish, shall we? The big grey colt won't be one to miss on the track on Saturday afternoon, as he'll be the grey blur that is always just on the outside of your television screen that starts to inch up towards the front of the pack as a stalker for the duration of the race. Unfortunately, we'd love to make Paddy O'Prado the winner of this race, but we just don't believe that he has the tools to get all the way to the front. As a traditional Irish turf horse though, running the full 1 1/4 miles isn't going to be an issue whatsoever. It's going to be hard for us to take this horse off of the board.

Mission Impazible (+2000 at BetUS Sportsbook - 100% Bonus) – Every year it feels like there's a horse that comes out of nowhere in the closing furlong or so that finds his way onto the board that screws up all of the odds. Last year, Mine That Bird did just that and more, as he actually won the race from well off the pace and posted the second highest "To Win" price that the Derby has ever seen. Mission Impazible won't be a horse that does all of that damage, but he can make an impact from the parking lot in this one if the horses around him aren't careful.

Dublin (+1200 at BetUS Sportsbook - 100% Bonus) – Dublin has been a bridesmaid a number of times, but has never quite had the opportunity to be a bride. Champion trainer D. Wayne Lukas knows that he has a very dangerous horse in this race, as Dublin has never gone off at less than 9/2 in any race that he has run. That won't be the case at the Derby, as he'll probably be one of the mid-range choices. Dublin feels like he finishes on the board in every race that he runs, and this probably won't be an exception. Unlike some other colts who ran against weaker fields, Dublin has taken on all challengers. Though he has come up short every time to date, this could be his race.

Lookin At Lucky (+375 at BetUS Sportsbook - 100% Bonus) – Lookin At Lucky was always on the radar, but he was never considered the real favorite to win this race until previous favorite Eskendereya was scratched last week. Now all of a sudden, people are paying attention to the horse that won five stakes races in preparation for the Kentucky Derby. Lookin At Lucky is the only $1M horse in this field, which immediately gives him a ton of credibility. Now all that has to happen is that he has to find a way to do something that no horse has done since 1986: Win from the rail. If Lookin At Lucky can have a relatively clean ride, he is going to be the horse to beat on Saturday afternoon.

Cappers Info Superfecta  – #1 Lookin At Lucky – #17 Dublin – #14 Mission Impazible – #10 Paddy O'Prado

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April 28th, 2010 By Andrew Ryan

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Click Here For Free 2010 Kentucky Derby Picks

Last year, Mine That Bird stole the Kentucky Derby with jockey Calvin Borel riding. No one saw the three year old colt sneak between horses to jolt to the front of the crowded pack of 20 horses, just like no one at the betting mutuels saw it coming either. Mine That Bird cashed in for his horse racing betting fans at a cool 50.60-1, making him the second longest shot to ever win the Run for the Roses.

Giacomo pulled off a very similar feat in 2005, running from the far outside for a late close on what was supposed to be an incredible field of three year olds. He went off at 50.30-1 for a similar payout.

We don't expect you to remember the longest shot ever to win the Derby, Donerail back in 1913 (91.45-1).

On the day that the posts are drawn for the 136th Kentucky Derby, we have to go back and ponder why these major upsets are occurring in the first leg of this Triple Crown.

We were given a sharp dose of reality once again when Eskendereya was scratched from this year's Derby. Many thought that he was going to go off as a supreme favorite to win the race. Instead, Lookin At Lucky, a horse that was nearly perfect as a two year old but didn't perform all that well in his prep races, will most likely take the honors as the horse to beat.

This year's field will probably include a real mish-mosh of horses, including a filly that had mixed results against her own breed (Devil May Care), a trio of horses that have only been one hit wonders (Endorsement at the Sunland Derby, Ice Box at the Florida Derby, and Line of David at the Arkansas Derby), a horse that made almost all of its money as a two year old and has been awful since turning three (Homeboykris), a horse that has been the favorite nearly every time out yet has underachieved (Dublin), and even a horse that only has one career race under his belt on dirt… and he lost by 34 lengths (Dean's Kitten).

Yes, it's becoming more and more apparent that the so-called "Sport of Kings" is evolving into a crapshoot where we go to the track and try our best to handicap out horses that have been the picture of inconsistency.

However, that doesn't mean that the oddsmakers aren't going to throw a few curveballs on the board that could be incredibly profitable on Saturday afternoon. Here at Cappers Info, we'll have our eyes glued to all of the odds and the racing ins and outs for Saturday's Run for the Roses, so be sure to check back to the Cappers Info blog as the weekend draws nearer!

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