The Potato Bowl is one of the games on the college football bowl schedule this year, and today, I’m set to make my NCAA football pointspread picks for the ‘total’ in this clash. The Toledo Rockets and the Utah State Aggies are going to do battle at Bronco Stadium in Boise, ID. Join me for my Potato Bowl tips for this 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff that can be seen on ESPN.
The Potato Bowl is going to be a heck of a battle on Saturday afternoon on the Smurf Turf. Historically, this is a wild game with very unpredictable results. Last year’s game was the first in five years that didn’t feature at least one team getting into the 40s in points, as this same Utah State team was beaten 24-23 by the MAC’s Ohio Bobcats.
2012 Potato Bowl
Toledo Rockets (9-3, 7-5 ATS) +10.5
Utah State Aggies (10-2, 10-1-1 ATS) -10.5
I’m really wondering whether the Rockets are going to be able to move the ball on the Aggies. Toledo did have a respectable offense that averaged 456.1 yards and 32.9 points per game this year, but it really never did see a defense quite as talented as this one. The only even remotely comparable game was the 27-15 win over the Bowling Green Falcons, and that was a home game, not a de facto road game here in Boise. Utah State ranked eighth in the country in scoring defense, allowing 15.4 points per game, and the only team to put more than 27 on these guys this year was the wild Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, who went off for 41.
It’s just not a great spot for an ‘over’ play in my eyes. There’s going to be a lot of getting the ball in the hands of RB Kerwynn Williams for the Aggies and RB David Fluellen for the Rockets, and that could eat up a heck of a lot of clock as well. Utah State played to a 6-0 start to the season for ‘under’ bettors before finally playing a high scoring game, and there were only three ‘overs’ to speak of all year long. The average game only reached 49.8 points per game, and if you take out that wild one against La Tech, that average comes down to 46.3 points per game. It’s going to take a heck of a lot to get this one into the 60s, and I just don’t see it happening when push comes to shove.
Toledo vs. Utah State Picks & Tips: Under 58.5