Of all of the games on the Sunday 12/23 Week 16 NFL betting schedule, one of my favorite is the clash between the New England Patriots and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Join me for my tips for this 1:00 p.m. ET kickoff that can be seen on CBS.
New England Patriots (10-4, 8-6 ATS) -14.5
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12, 6-8 ATS) +14.5
Over/Under 50.5
The expectation is there for the Patriots to come on the road and just beat the snot out of the Jaguars. And, normally speaking, you’d probably think that I would disagree with that sentiment, especially with over 75% of the betting public backing the Pats on the road laying more than two touchdowns, which is really never a good idea in the NFL betting world.
However, I’ve got a much different take on this game than most. The Patriots aren’t your average team. They don’t just resort to running the football when games are out of reach. They keep throwing. Over… and over… and over again… That’s how they dropped 42 on the Texans, 49 on the Jets, 59 on the Colts, 45 on the Rams… etc.
Many will point to the fact that the Jaguars have been solid against top flight teams across the league of late, and that’s definitely true. The Packers and the Texans both struggled mightily with Jacksonville just in the last two months or so. That being said, we have to remember a lot of other factors as well. The Jags were just trashed 24-3 by the Dolphins last week and 34-18 by the Bills two weeks prior to that. They also have only played two home games that were decided by fewer than 17 points, and they didn’t score more than 14 points in any of those games. This is just screaming to be a blowout when push comes to shove, and the oddsmakers are probably going to pay the price for starting this game at less than two TDs.
Patriots @ Jaguars Tips: New England Patriots -14.5
