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NFL Odds: Week 12 Sunday Night Football Picks Pit @ KC 11/27/11

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Playoff hopes are on the line for a pair of teams that are still in the postseason picture in the crowded AFC on Sunday Night Football.

Year To Date Record: 30-35 ATS
Upset Record: 10-18, -$720

Week 12 NFL Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Date: Sunday, November 27th, 8:25 ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
NFL Week 12 Lines: Pittsburgh -10.5
Over/Under 40
Week 12 NFL TV Schedule: NBC

Steelers Notes: Pittsburgh knows that it needs to win this game to draw level once again with the Ravens, who won on Thursday at home. QB Ben Roethlisberger needs just 123 yards to reach the 3,000 yard barrier for the season, and he has 16 TDs against nine picks. All eyes are going to be on Big Ben’s thumb, which was fractured two weeks ago. Roethlisberger is going to play through the injury, just as he did for the second half of that game against the Bengals, and the hope is that the bye week has helped him get accustomed to it. There might be more of an emphasis on the ground game in this one. This is nothing out of the ordinary for the black and gold, but this year, RB Rashard Mendenhall hasn’t really been able to make the most out of his chances on the ground. As a team over the course of the last three weeks, the Steelers are only averaging 3.7 yards per carry.

Chiefs Notes: Last week was frustrating for the Chiefs in Foxboro against the Patriots, but it was hard to forecast anything different. QB Tyler Palko, making his first career start, threw for 230 yards on 24-of-37 passing, which wasn’t all that bad, but he tossed three picks and didn’t get the team in the end zone. In fact, the only score for Kansas City in the entire game came in the first quarter on a field goal. Head Coach Todd Haley’s defense is definitely going to be tested in this one. This unit has been terrible this year, allowing 25.2 points and 365.9 yards per game, and it just cannot afford to give up those types of numbers if there is any hope to pull off the upset. A loss in this one, and the likelihood is there that Kansas City’s season is over.

The Final Word: This game has the feel of one that the Steelers win by just slightly less than the number. Pittsburgh, seemingly more so than any other team in the league, wins games in which it is favored by more than a touchdown win by a TD or fewer. We don’t really think that the outright victory will ever be in doubt, but we can see Palko, who was quite efficient for the most part against New England, finding a way to hit the backdoor.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Kansas City +10.5

NFL Football Prediction: Pittsburgh 20 – Kansas City 13

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