I’ve been studying the ‘total’ for the NFL Playoffs odds for quite some time, and I’m ready to make my NFC Championship Game picks for the clash between the Atlanta Falcons and the San Francisco 49ers. The San Francisco vs. Atlanta kickoff is set for 3:00 p.m. ET at the Georgia Dome, and I’m going to show you which way to bet on the NFL playoffs to make your NFL pick on for this great game.
NFC Championship Game Picks
San Francisco 49ers (12-4-1, 10-7 ATS) -4
Atlanta Falcons (14-3, 9-7-1 ATS) +4
For the sharp bettors like me (and hopefully all of you), it was a rough week. Square teams did a lot of covering, and all of the ‘overs’ came in. And now, the oddsmakers have had no choice but to adjust and compensate by making these numbers a heck of a lot higher than it should be, especially here in the NFC Championship Game. The 49ers averaged just 41.9 points per game this year in the regular season, while the Falcons were at just 44.9. And they think that this is a game that is going to get to 50 points? Earlier this season, this would have been a game lined around 43 or 44, and this is a huge overcompensation.
I know that the Falcons are going to try their best to get the job done on the ground, but they just aren’t going to be able to do it. Last week in the first half against Seattle, they ran for 133 yards. The rest of the game? Just 34. That forced QB Matt Ryan into throwing the ball more. Many felt encouraged by the fact that he threw for just over 200 yards in the first three quarters of the game. His next meaningful yards? They didn’t come until the final two passing plays that set up the game-winning field goal. It’s just not an offense that is going to really get the job done all that often against this defense, I feel.
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On top of that, the 49ers really aren’t as great of an offensive teams as they showed last week in Green Bay. Yes, they’re good, but we have to remember that they also scored just 13 points against the St. Louis Rams and 13 against the Seahawks with QB Colin Kaepernick at quarterback. This is a second straight week (and it really should be a third straight week including the bye, knowing that either QB Russell Wilson or QB Robert Griffin III should have been coming to Atlanta in the first round of the playoffs) that the Falcons have been looking at mobile quarterbacks on tape. I think that they’ll at least somewhat slow down Kaepernick, and the end result is going to have this one failing to reach the number when push comes to shove by a relatively healthy margin.
San Francisco vs. Atlanta Picks & Tips: Under 49