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Horse Racing Event: 2013 Preakness Stakes
Event Date: Saturday, May 18th, 2013
Location: Pimlico Racetrack – Baltimore, MD
Runners: 3 Year Old Colts
Race Number & Post Time: Race #12 6:20 PM EST
Current Preakness Stakes Odds Favorite: #1 Orb (1/1)
Racing Form: Free Preakness Stakes Past Performances
Preakness Stakes Post Positions & Preakness Stakes Odds
1: Orb (1/1)
2: Goldencents (8/1)
3: Titletown Five (30/1)
4: Departing (6/1)
5: Mylute (5/1)
6: Oxbow (15/1)
7: Will Take Charge (12/1)
8: Govenor Charlie (12/1)
9: Itsmyluckyday (10/1)
We weren’t really all that wild about the Kentucky Derby favorite, Orb, and we aren’t thrilled by him here at the Preakness Stakes either. That being said, we most certainly realize at this point that we can’t take him out of the money. He is definitively one of the best two or three three-year old horses in the world right now after winning in the muck at Churchill Downs, and he is capable on winning the Triple Crown. That being said, there is no way that this should be an odds on horse, and all of the exotic prices are going to stink with him involved in them, and we think that we have a possible scenario where this all of a sudden could become a bettors race.
The key horse in this entire race believe it or not, is going to be Titletown Five. Is D. Wayne Lukas’ horse going to win the Preakness Stakes? Of course he isn’t. But what he can do is tire out the other frontrunners, which we expect to include Orb since he has the inside post. Go back and watch all of Titletown Five’s races. Seemingly in all of them, the horse(s) that came out to the lead with him were all dead by the time the field got to the final turn. This is a rabbit of a horse, and whatever jockey goes and takes his horse out to challenge Titletown Five at the start of this race is going to end up losing his (or her) mount in the future.
There is definitively value in playing the two major players from the Kentucky Derby that badly underachieved. It’s amazing to think that both Itsmyluckyday and Goldencents are featuring the exact same odds at the Preakness Stakes, in a nine-horse field with good weather expected, as they were in the Kentucky Derby. We know that both of these horses were total duds at the Derby, but we’re also willing to throw that race out. The weather was lousy and there were 19 horses running in the field, and for every single one of those colts, that was the first race of its kind. This one is going to be a lot more what we’re used to seeing in the prep races with just nine horses, and it should play into the hands of the horses that succeeded the most in those prep races.
We also have a bit of an eye on Govenor Charlie as well. Unfortunately, we don’t have a whole heck of a lot of races to look at when we see Govenor Charlie, but what we do see is a horse that was incredibly impressive at the Sunland Derby, and we have a horse that has a tremendous pedigree. We think that Trainer Bob Baffert knew what he was doing when he pulled Govenor Charlie out of the Kentucky Derby, and the thought must have been that he could quite possibly end up pulling off a big upset at the Preakness Stakes with a horse that few know much about.
The race will be won in the first half mile as we see it. If Orb is out there running with Titletown Five and the fractions are incredibly fast, we have matters right where we want them. We are hoping to see all three of the other horses that we have mentioned, Itsmyluckyday, Govenor Charlie, and Goldencents not that far off of the pace. Goldencents might even be riding in front, which is where Jockey Kevin Krigger would love to place him as long as the clip isn’t blazing fast. We are admitting to be a bit afraid of Mylute and of Departing, but we just don’t like the prices of either of these horses. Closers don’t typically do all that phenomenally at the Preakness Stakes, as we have seen many try, but ultimately, speed racers and stalkers usually end up at the front of the field, and the closers run out of space and time. That’s why we’re taking Departing out of it, aside from the fact that we just don’t trust that the Illinois Derby field that he bested was anywhere near as good as the one that he’ll see here at Pimlico on Saturday.
It will be interesting to see where Jockey Martin Garcia, who won this race in 2010 board Lookin At Lucky will ultimately position this colt. If it’s at the front of the field, Govenor Charlie could end up on the board. We think in the end though, that he will tire out just a bit, but he’ll still barely finish on the board for the super. The best three year old colt in the world this year might be Verrazano, who isn’t running in this race, and many think that the best of the best is Orb. However, we aren’t so sure that Jockey Kevin Krigger doesn’t have the best of the bunch. Give Goldencents a clean ride, and we think that he will win this race at a tremendous price. In this race, we’re going to take a 1/2/8/9 box of both trifectas and superfectas, knowing if Orb does end up winning this race as he is expected to do, that we should still be in it with a shout with some of the other best horses in the game. Exacta prices won’t pay off well enough unless Orb is out of the Top 2, so be sure to take the value plays.
2013 Preakness Stakes Picks (Superfecta Pick)
#8 Govenor Charlie