Posts Tagged ‘Belmont Stakes free picks’

June 9th, 2012 By Andrew Ryan

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Horse Racing Event: 2012 Belmont Stakes
Date: Saturday, June 9th, 2012
Location: Belmont Park – Elmont, NY
Runners: 3 Year Olds
Belmont Stakes Post Time: Approximately 6:30 PM ET
Current Belmont Stakes Favorite: Dullahan (+190)
Racing Form: Click Here

Free 2012 Belmont Picks & Analysis: The 2012 Belmont Stakes field is expected to have 11 horses in it now that some of the colts have dropped out of the fold. We are set to look at the horses that are going to be running against the Belmont Stakes odds, and checking in on all of the horses now that I’ll Have Another has retired, ending his quest for the 2012 Triple Crown.

The Belmont Stakes list of horses is really starting to dwindle, as some of the top horses in the world right now like Hansen, Gemologist, Alpha, Bodemeister, and now most notably, I’ll Have Another are not going to be taking the 1 1/2 mile challenge at Belmont Park. That means that the new favorite to win this race is Dullahan, who is a comfortable +190 favorite on the Belmont Stakes betting lines at 5Dimes Sportsbook. We really like what Dullahan is bringing to the table in this race, especially with I’ll Have Another out of the fold, as we expect to see him be able to get the job done without all that much of a challenge from a crowded field like he had to deal with at the Kentucky Derby. Closers should be few and far between, especially after running for a mile and change before that last kick, and with a good post draw in the middle of the field, Dullahan should be able to stay out of trouble and make his way back towards the front of the field in the dying furlongs.

2012 Belmont Stakes Post Positions/Post Draws with Belmont Stakes Morning Lines
1: Street Life (12/1)
2: Unstoppable U (30/1)
3: Union Rags (6/1)
4: Atigun (30/1)
5: Dullahan (5/1)
6: Ravelo’s Boy (50/1)
7: Five Sixteen (50/1)
8: Guyana Star Dweej (50/1)
9: Paynter (8/1)
10: Optimizer (20/1)
11: I’ll Have Another (4/5, SCRATCHED)
12: My Adonis (20/1)

If not Dullahan, the question is whether or not Union Rags can get the job done. He is the only other horse that is going to be expected to challenge, and he is the +235 second choice on the board. He isn’t necessarily going to be the only one that might be able to finish strong in the stretch. We just don’t know if Union Rags is as good of a horse as some of the others in this field, and we wonder whether his Kentucky Derby odds were overblown.

And this is where things get interesting to say the least. Even a horse like Mark Valeski, who won the Peter Pan, or Right to Vote, who finished second in that race, are going to be sitting this race out. That being said, the only horse that ran in the Peter Pan finished third in the race in between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes right here in Elmont, and that is Street Life. Again, this is another horse that is going to try to close at the end of the race, and that really could become problematic with Dullahan and some of the other closers. This is a horse that didn’t race as a two-year old, and he only has a total of five races under his belt in his career. It’s scary to say the least.

The only other horse that is really being considered as one of the surprise horses in this field is Paynter. We definitely are concerned about Paynter, though. Trainer Bob Baffert didn’t bring this horse to any of the other Triple Crown races, and now, he is taking this horse up against I’ll Have Another instead of Bodemeister, who has already been beaten by the potential Triple Crown winner twice before. Paynter has had some fast, fast races, running a 100 and a 106 Beyer Speed Rating in his last two runs. However, this is once again, a bit of an inexperienced horse, as he never ran as a two-year old either. In the end though, those speed ratings are definitely notable, and that’s why Paynter is the fourth favorite on the board on the odds to win the Belmont Stakes.

The rest of these horses in the field just don’t do it for us. We have seen Optimizer run twice before in the Triple Crown races, and he wasn’t a factor in either of the runs. Unstoppable U has raced just twice in his career. Yes, he won both races, but that just doesn’t do it for us, knowing that he hasn’t ever sniffed a graded race before. And then there is Atigun, who might have a great name, but he has finished fifth or worse in all three of his graded stakes races in his career. The field rounds out with Five Sixteen, Guyana Star Dweej, and Ravelo’s Boy, all of which are going to likely be at least 30 to 1 or worse when the Belmont Stakes odds go off the board. Between them all, they have just three career wins in a ton of races and a grand total of zero races with speed ratings higher than 85.

The last horse to enter the 2012 Belmont Stakes field might be a sneaky horse to back. My Adonis might end up being a 30 to 1 horse when it is all said and done with, but the one thing that he has going for him is some speed. He is the colt that is going to be out in front right away assuming that he can get to the inside from all the way on the far post at the outset of the race, and with the breeding to make it the distance, we think that My Adonis could be a wire-to-wire type of horse.

Current Belmont Stakes Race Odds & Betting Lines (As Of 6/9/12)
Dullahan +190
UnionRags +235
Paynter +440
Street Life +850
Optimizer +1700
My Adonis +2000
Unstoppable U +2100
Atigun +2500
Ravelo’s Boy +4300
Five Sixteen +5000
Guyana Star Dweej +6600

 
June 3rd, 2010 By Andrew Ryan

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Belmont Racetrack will take center stage when the Belmont Stakes betting action goes to post on Saturday. Today, we'll make our Belmont Stakes free picks that will help you cash in against the Belmont Stakes odds.

Fly Down (+450 at BetUS Sportsbook) – Fly Down becomes a very interesting selection in the Belmont Stakes because of his most recent win at the Grade II Dwyer on this same racetrack. Horses that have had success in the Big Apple in lead up races to the final leg of the Triple Crown have historically had plenty of success in the Belmont Stakes as well. Look no further than Summer Bird in 2009 or Birdstone in 2004 to show that you don't have to run in the first two legs of the Triple Crown to win the third. However, Fly Down was the second favorite choice in that race and doesn't really have a superb resume behind him coming into the Belmont Stakes. A ninth place finish at the Louisiana Derby is probably what kept trainer Nick Zito from entering him in either the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness Stakes, but Fly Down is certainly ready to challenge at the Belmont.

Ice Box (+300 at BetUS Sportsbook) – The morning line favorite for this event, Ice Box finished second at the Kentucky Derby to Super Saver. Many think that Ice Box's run in the Run for the Roses was more impressive than Super Saver's win, because he faced a very difficult ride that saw him have to rally from 19th place to nearly nip the winner at the stretch run before falling a tad flat. Many also feel that the run at 1 1/4 miles in which he ran out of a tad bit of gas may be a sign that he won't be able to last the entire 1 1/2 miles. However, there are a lot of weak links in this field, and we think that Ice Box is going to ultimately end up sticking in the money in spite of the fact that we're not so sure that he has the legs for the distance either.

First Dude (+350 at BetUS Sportsbook) – My, what a difference a race makes! First Dude was a huge longshot in the Preakness Stakes, but he bounced out to the lead early and nearly beat Lookin At Lucky at the wire. No one is doubting the fact that this horse can run the distance here at the Belmont, but our Belmont Stakes picks are going to be on him to come in second once again. First Dude will inevitably get out to the front of the pack yet again and try to run wire-to-wire, but it is incredibly rare to see a horse pull off that feat for a mile, let alone for a mile and a half. The odds aren't great here, but we can't ignore First Dude after that run in the Preakness.

Drosselmeyer (+1200 at BetUS Sportsbook) – This Belmont Stakes pick might surprise some, but Drosselmeyer was the odds on favorite to win the Dwyer over Fly Down for a good reason. He had a miserable run that day, slipping out of the gate and running into traffic that took him off of his game. Still, finishing second best was impressive against a reasonable crop of three year olds. If Drosselmeyer gets off to a clean start and ends up in a decent stalking lane, he should have the distance breeding in him to make his move at the wire. Last year, Summer Bird took down the Belmont Stakes after winning on this track the month before, and we expect Drosselmeyer to prove why he was odds on against the best of the three year olds that are running in horse racing's most grueling test.

Cappers Info Superfecta  – #7 Drosselmeyer – #11 First Dude – #6 Ice Box – #5 Fly Down