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May 18th, 2013 By Andrew Ryan

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Horse Racing Event: 2013 Preakness Stakes
Event Date: Saturday, May 18th, 2013
Location: Pimlico Racetrack – Baltimore, MD
Runners: 3 Year Old Colts
Race Number & Post Time: Race #12 6:20 PM EST
Current Preakness Stakes Odds Favorite: #1 Orb (1/1)
Racing Form: Free Preakness Stakes Past Performances

Preakness Stakes Post Positions & Preakness Stakes Odds
1: Orb (1/1)
2: Goldencents (8/1)
3: Titletown Five (30/1)
4: Departing (6/1)
5: Mylute (5/1)
6: Oxbow (15/1)
7: Will Take Charge (12/1)
8: Govenor Charlie (12/1)
9: Itsmyluckyday (10/1)

We weren’t really all that wild about the Kentucky Derby favorite, Orb, and we aren’t thrilled by him here at the Preakness Stakes either. That being said, we most certainly realize at this point that we can’t take him out of the money. He is definitively one of the best two or three three-year old horses in the world right now after winning in the muck at Churchill Downs, and he is capable on winning the Triple Crown. That being said, there is no way that this should be an odds on horse, and all of the exotic prices are going to stink with him involved in them, and we think that we have a possible scenario where this all of a sudden could become a bettors race.

The key horse in this entire race believe it or not, is going to be Titletown Five. Is D. Wayne Lukas’ horse going to win the Preakness Stakes? Of course he isn’t. But what he can do is tire out the other frontrunners, which we expect to include Orb since he has the inside post. Go back and watch all of Titletown Five’s races. Seemingly in all of them, the horse(s) that came out to the lead with him were all dead by the time the field got to the final turn. This is a rabbit of a horse, and whatever jockey goes and takes his horse out to challenge Titletown Five at the start of this race is going to end up losing his (or her) mount in the future.

There is definitively value in playing the two major players from the Kentucky Derby that badly underachieved. It’s amazing to think that both Itsmyluckyday and Goldencents are featuring the exact same odds at the Preakness Stakes, in a nine-horse field with good weather expected, as they were in the Kentucky Derby. We know that both of these horses were total duds at the Derby, but we’re also willing to throw that race out. The weather was lousy and there were 19 horses running in the field, and for every single one of those colts, that was the first race of its kind. This one is going to be a lot more what we’re used to seeing in the prep races with just nine horses, and it should play into the hands of the horses that succeeded the most in those prep races.

We also have a bit of an eye on Govenor Charlie as well. Unfortunately, we don’t have a whole heck of a lot of races to look at when we see Govenor Charlie, but what we do see is a horse that was incredibly impressive at the Sunland Derby, and we have a horse that has a tremendous pedigree. We think that Trainer Bob Baffert knew what he was doing when he pulled Govenor Charlie out of the Kentucky Derby, and the thought must have been that he could quite possibly end up pulling off a big upset at the Preakness Stakes with a horse that few know much about.

JustBet Kentucky Derby

The race will be won in the first half mile as we see it. If Orb is out there running with Titletown Five and the fractions are incredibly fast, we have matters right where we want them. We are hoping to see all three of the other horses that we have mentioned, Itsmyluckyday, Govenor Charlie, and Goldencents not that far off of the pace. Goldencents might even be riding in front, which is where Jockey Kevin Krigger would love to place him as long as the clip isn’t blazing fast. We are admitting to be a bit afraid of Mylute and of Departing, but we just don’t like the prices of either of these horses. Closers don’t typically do all that phenomenally at the Preakness Stakes, as we have seen many try, but ultimately, speed racers and stalkers usually end up at the front of the field, and the closers run out of space and time. That’s why we’re taking Departing out of it, aside from the fact that we just don’t trust that the Illinois Derby field that he bested was anywhere near as good as the one that he’ll see here at Pimlico on Saturday.

It will be interesting to see where Jockey Martin Garcia, who won this race in 2010 board Lookin At Lucky will ultimately position this colt. If it’s at the front of the field, Govenor Charlie could end up on the board. We think in the end though, that he will tire out just a bit, but he’ll still barely finish on the board for the super. The best three year old colt in the world this year might be Verrazano, who isn’t running in this race, and many think that the best of the best is Orb. However, we aren’t so sure that Jockey Kevin Krigger doesn’t have the best of the bunch. Give Goldencents a clean ride, and we think that he will win this race at a tremendous price. In this race, we’re going to take a 1/2/8/9 box of both trifectas and superfectas, knowing if Orb does end up winning this race as he is expected to do, that we should still be in it with a shout with some of the other best horses in the game. Exacta prices won’t pay off well enough unless Orb is out of the Top 2, so be sure to take the value plays.

2013 Preakness Stakes Picks (Superfecta Pick)
#2 Goldencents
#9 Itsmyluckyday
#1 Orb
#8 Govenor Charlie

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June 9th, 2012 By Andrew Ryan

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Horse Racing Event: 2012 Belmont Stakes
Date: Saturday, June 9th, 2012
Location: Belmont Park – Elmont, NY
Runners: 3 Year Olds
Belmont Stakes Post Time: Approximately 6:30 PM ET
Current Belmont Stakes Favorite: Dullahan (+190)
Racing Form: Click Here

Free 2012 Belmont Picks & Analysis: The 2012 Belmont Stakes field is expected to have 11 horses in it now that some of the colts have dropped out of the fold. We are set to look at the horses that are going to be running against the Belmont Stakes odds, and checking in on all of the horses now that I’ll Have Another has retired, ending his quest for the 2012 Triple Crown.

The Belmont Stakes list of horses is really starting to dwindle, as some of the top horses in the world right now like Hansen, Gemologist, Alpha, Bodemeister, and now most notably, I’ll Have Another are not going to be taking the 1 1/2 mile challenge at Belmont Park. That means that the new favorite to win this race is Dullahan, who is a comfortable +190 favorite on the Belmont Stakes betting lines at 5Dimes Sportsbook. We really like what Dullahan is bringing to the table in this race, especially with I’ll Have Another out of the fold, as we expect to see him be able to get the job done without all that much of a challenge from a crowded field like he had to deal with at the Kentucky Derby. Closers should be few and far between, especially after running for a mile and change before that last kick, and with a good post draw in the middle of the field, Dullahan should be able to stay out of trouble and make his way back towards the front of the field in the dying furlongs.

2012 Belmont Stakes Post Positions/Post Draws with Belmont Stakes Morning Lines
1: Street Life (12/1)
2: Unstoppable U (30/1)
3: Union Rags (6/1)
4: Atigun (30/1)
5: Dullahan (5/1)
6: Ravelo’s Boy (50/1)
7: Five Sixteen (50/1)
8: Guyana Star Dweej (50/1)
9: Paynter (8/1)
10: Optimizer (20/1)
11: I’ll Have Another (4/5, SCRATCHED)
12: My Adonis (20/1)

If not Dullahan, the question is whether or not Union Rags can get the job done. He is the only other horse that is going to be expected to challenge, and he is the +235 second choice on the board. He isn’t necessarily going to be the only one that might be able to finish strong in the stretch. We just don’t know if Union Rags is as good of a horse as some of the others in this field, and we wonder whether his Kentucky Derby odds were overblown.

And this is where things get interesting to say the least. Even a horse like Mark Valeski, who won the Peter Pan, or Right to Vote, who finished second in that race, are going to be sitting this race out. That being said, the only horse that ran in the Peter Pan finished third in the race in between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes right here in Elmont, and that is Street Life. Again, this is another horse that is going to try to close at the end of the race, and that really could become problematic with Dullahan and some of the other closers. This is a horse that didn’t race as a two-year old, and he only has a total of five races under his belt in his career. It’s scary to say the least.

The only other horse that is really being considered as one of the surprise horses in this field is Paynter. We definitely are concerned about Paynter, though. Trainer Bob Baffert didn’t bring this horse to any of the other Triple Crown races, and now, he is taking this horse up against I’ll Have Another instead of Bodemeister, who has already been beaten by the potential Triple Crown winner twice before. Paynter has had some fast, fast races, running a 100 and a 106 Beyer Speed Rating in his last two runs. However, this is once again, a bit of an inexperienced horse, as he never ran as a two-year old either. In the end though, those speed ratings are definitely notable, and that’s why Paynter is the fourth favorite on the board on the odds to win the Belmont Stakes.

The rest of these horses in the field just don’t do it for us. We have seen Optimizer run twice before in the Triple Crown races, and he wasn’t a factor in either of the runs. Unstoppable U has raced just twice in his career. Yes, he won both races, but that just doesn’t do it for us, knowing that he hasn’t ever sniffed a graded race before. And then there is Atigun, who might have a great name, but he has finished fifth or worse in all three of his graded stakes races in his career. The field rounds out with Five Sixteen, Guyana Star Dweej, and Ravelo’s Boy, all of which are going to likely be at least 30 to 1 or worse when the Belmont Stakes odds go off the board. Between them all, they have just three career wins in a ton of races and a grand total of zero races with speed ratings higher than 85.

The last horse to enter the 2012 Belmont Stakes field might be a sneaky horse to back. My Adonis might end up being a 30 to 1 horse when it is all said and done with, but the one thing that he has going for him is some speed. He is the colt that is going to be out in front right away assuming that he can get to the inside from all the way on the far post at the outset of the race, and with the breeding to make it the distance, we think that My Adonis could be a wire-to-wire type of horse.

Current Belmont Stakes Race Odds & Betting Lines (As Of 6/9/12)
Dullahan +190
UnionRags +235
Paynter +440
Street Life +850
Optimizer +1700
My Adonis +2000
Unstoppable U +2100
Atigun +2500
Ravelo’s Boy +4300
Five Sixteen +5000
Guyana Star Dweej +6600

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Posted in Horse Racing |

 
May 19th, 2011 By Andy "The Raven" Frank (Cappersinfo Contributor)

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We at Cappersinfo.com are always striving to bring you the very best in handicapping information including horce racing picks for popular events such as the Black Eyed Susan Stakes. Handicapper, blog contributor, and forum member, Andy Frank has a long horse racing resume that goes back over 30 years. Here is Andrew’s race analysis for Friday’s Black Eyed Susan Stakes which is being run at Pimlico on Friday at 4:45pm (EST).

Horse Racing Event: Black Eyed Susan Stakes
Event Date: Friday May 20th, 2011
Location: Pimlico Racecourse – Baltimore, MD
Runners: 3 Year Old Fillies
Race Number & Post Time: 6 go to the post at 4:46 PM EST RACE 10
Current Odds Favorite: #4 WYOMIA (9/5)

Race Analysis: A small but evenly matched field of 6 go post ward in the Black Eyed Susan Stakes being run on Friday as race 10 on the Pimlico card. Wyomia is the #4 and 9/5 morning line favorite. She is coming off a nice second place finish in the grade 1 Ashland Stakes run over the polytrack at Keeneland April 9th. She is third race back off a layoff and faced one of the other main contenders in this race in her first race back on March 12th in the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Wyomia won that race getting up in the final strides at just over 6/1. Also coming out of that same race is #1 Royal Delta who is listed as the third choice at 3/1 on the morning line. In the Suncoast Stakes Royal Delta was also first race off a long layoff and was bet down to the $1.60 favorite in the race. She ran second to last and never got a call, however in her second race back off the layoff she returned to her previous form winning convincingly by three lengths in a fast time. Now she sits on her third race back off the layoff and will not be the favorite this time around against Wyomia. Royal Delta however is the better horse and will turn the tables on Wyomia in this race. Second choice is #2 Hot Summer who figures to be the controlling speed and on the lead right out of the gate. Whether or not she can make the 1 mile and 1/8th distance is a big question mark. In fact of all 6 runners only #1 Royal Delta is not only bred to run all day by Empire Maker out of an AP Indy mare, but also is working like a horse sitting on a huge race. The last two works at Belmont were particularly impressive. She went 5 furlongs in 59 2/5 handily on May 8th which was the fastest of 29 works at that distance on the day. Then she worked a 4 furlong breeze in 48 flat on May 14th which was the 3rd fastest work at the distance of 80 different horses to work 4 furlongs that day. The rail has been good at Pimlico so far this meet winning at a 24% clip, and #1 Royal Delta has the breeding and current form to be the top contender and the horse you must wager on if 2/1 or more at the windows. Bet #1 Royal Delta across the board win, place and show. Also use her in exacta boxes with #4 Wyomia, and #2 Hot Summer.

Free Black Eyed Susan Picks: #1 Royal Delta Win/Place/Show, Ex Box 1-4, 1-2

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January 30th, 2010 By Andrew Ryan

Super Bowl props are always a fun way to place side wagers on the biggest game of the season. Don't kid yourself though, as there is plenty of money to be made with the plethora of propositions at your disposal. Check out some of the props available to you at BetUS Sportsbook that may be ripe for the taking in Super Bowl XLIV betting action…

Peyton Manning Under 308.5 Passing Yards: Betting under on Manning may seem like suicide, but the numbers warrant a look at this. The future Hall of Famer only threw for more than 308.5 yards seven times in his 16 legitimate starts including the postseason, and he only surpassed that number twice away from Lucas Oil Field. New Orleans may have allowed 235.6 yards per game through the air, but it only conceded more passing yards than this to Washington's Jason Campbell, Dallas' Tony Romo, and Philadelphia's Kevin Kolb this year. Manning only threw for 247 yards in Super Bowl XLI, and the percentage play suggests that you should bank on him staying away from his total once again in Super Bowl XLIV.

Marques Colston Longest Reception Over 22.5 yards: Considering that Colston averaged 15.3 yards per reception this year, he seems to be a sure fire lock to get some looks up the field against a blitz-happy Indianapolis defense. Colston caught at least one pass of 23+ yards ten times this year in his 17 legitimate starts (disregarding Week 17 @ Carolina when most of the starters played limited or no action). Even though the Colts are averaging the lowest yards per completion rate in the NFL (9.5 yards per completion), they haven't seen a passing attack with this many weapons on the season.

David Thomas Over 2.5 Receptions: This is an interesting prop on a very interest X-Factor to this game. The Colts allowed New York's TE Dustin Keller to catch six passes in the AFC Championship Game and allowed another four to Baltimore's Todd Heap. In fact, a tight end has caught at least four passes in four of its L/6 games. Thomas has suddenly become a bit of a safety valve for Brees when he is in trouble. He caught three passes against the Vikings and had 13 total receptions in his final two meaningful regular season games. Especially if you believe that Indy is winning this game and that the Saints are going to have to play from behind, Thomas could be a sexy pick to click at the very juicy NFL betting line of +130.

Dwight Freeney Under 2.5 Solo + Assisted Tackles: One glance at this prop suggests that Freeney absolutely would have to have at least three tackles, right? Think again. The Colts' pass rushing specialist only had three or more tackles four times this season. Now, chew on this… 13.5 of those tackles came via sacks. It's clear that Freeney is going to be slowed up with his injury suffered against the Jets, and it's even more clear that New Orleans' offensive line is better than most that the Syracuse product has seen this year. Those two factors make this one a slam dunk. Look for Freeney to stay quiet and take down a very easy cash on his under at -150.

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