I’ve been studying the ‘total’ for the Music City Bowl odds for quite some time, and I’m ready to make my Music City Bowl picks for the clash between the Vanderbilt Commodores and the NC State Wolfpack. The NC State vs. Vanderbilt kickoff is set for 12:00 p.m. ET at LP Field, and I’m going to show you which way to bet on college football to make your CFB pick on for this great game.
2012 Music City Bowl
NC State Wolfpack (7-5, 5-6-1 ATS) +7
Vanderbilt Commodores (8-4, 8-4 ATS) -7
Over/Under 51.5
There are a few factors that I’m going to point out in this one that you probably aren’t going to see in most handicapping reports. The first is that this is going to be the second straight day that a game is played on the surface at LP Field. The Tennessee Titans and the Jacksonville Jaguars, two teams that love to grind it out in hardnosed games are going to be battling here on Sunday, and the turnaround time for the grounds crew isn’t all that long for a 12:00 kickoff one day later. The other factor is that it is going to be darn right cold for this game, as the sun is expected to stay in, and temperatures are going to likely be the high-30s or so in what should amount to be a dreary day. These two teams aren’t used to playing in these conditions, though at least it won’t be windy and rainy as well.
The matchup that I’ll be watching closely is the one between the NC State passing attack and the Vandy secondary. It is no secret that QB Mike Glennon has to put the ball in the air, as he had a rushing game that ranked just 108th in the nation at 116.9 yards per game. Glennon did throw for over 3,600 yards on the season, but the Commodores, facing SEC offenses, allowed just 175.8 yards per game and were stellar all year long. Glennon also gets flustered at times when he has to play out of his comfort zone, and when it rains, it tends to pour. The senior threw seven of his 14 INTs this year in just two games.
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On top of that, the Commodores make no bones about the fact that they want to run the ball. This team averaged running the ball just over 39 times per game, as opposed to throwing it 26.8 times per game. In case you’re counting, that’s not even 70 snaps per game offensively either in totality, and that’s because the Commodores prefer to just run the clock and keep games short. It is a formula that has worked all year long, and there is no reason that it won’t work like this again. This should be a low scorer of a bowl game in Nashville.
NC State vs. Vanderbilt Picks & Tips: Under 51.5
