I’ve been studying the ‘total’ for the NFL Playoffs odds for quite some time, and I’m ready to make my Divisional Round picks for the clash between the New England Patriots and the Houston Texans. The Houston vs. New England kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium, and I’m going to show you which way to bet on the NFL playoffs to make your NFL pick on for this great game.
Divisional Round Playoff Picks
Houston Texans (13-4, 10-7 ATS) +9.5
New England Patriots (12-4, 9-7 ATS) -9.5
Over/Under 48.5
The good news for the Texans is that the weather is expected to be relatively nice in Foxboro on Sunday, though it is obviously going to be a heck of a lot colder than what the team is used to when it is playing under the dome at Reliant Stadium. That doesn’t mean that this is an automatic ‘over’ game though, even though there were 56 points scored when these two teams met the first time around. In fact, I’m just about certain that this game is going to be mired in the 30s, much like how the first round game was for the Texans and the Cincinnati Bengals.
For whatever reason, the Texans just can’t get into the end zone at this point. QB Matt Schaub only threw one touchdown last week against Cincinnati, and that TD went the wrong direction. He has just one touchdown pass (going the right direction, anyway) in the last five games, and he has thrown four picks in that stretch, too. Meanwhile, the team only has two total touchdowns in its last 14 quarters of football, and that just doesn’t cut it when push comes to shove. RB Arian Foster is going to be getting the ball quite a bit in this game as well, and we wouldn’t be surprised if this is the second straight game in which he ends up getting the ball 30+ times on the ground and 40+ times in totality. The Houston defense has also had three really big games in the playoffs all-time, as the unit has allowed just an average of 14.3 points per game over the course of the last two years. Of course, this will be a game where there will be more than that allowed this year, but that doesn’t mean that there will be so many allowed to push this one past the ‘total’.
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New England has had a great history in the playoffs, but when you really look at it, a lot of these games just didn’t get to the ‘total’. Last year, both the AFC Championship Game and the Super Bowl both failed to reach the number in spite of the fact that QB Tom Brady and the gang had a great offense, and in the previous five playoff games, four times, the club was kept to 21 points or fewer. Now add into the fact that Houston’s defense has a score to settle after allowing six TDs to the Pats in the first meeting just a month ago. It all adds up to what should be an ‘under’ game to me.
Houston vs. New England Picks & Tips: Under 48.5
