[NFLMINNOWPHD]

Monday, October 22
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INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 0) at JACKSONVILLE (4 - 1) - 10/22/2007, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) in home games off a win against a division rival since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Indianapolis at Jacksonville, 8:30 ET ESPN
Indianapolis: 6-0 Over off BB wins by 10+ points
Jacksonville: 3-13 ATS off BB ATS wins as a favorite

Colts (5-0) @ Jaguars (4-1)— Last year, Jax ran ball for 566 yards (191-375) in splitting pair vs Colts, handing Indy 44-17 loss on this field- Jaguars won four in row since opening loss to Texans; they’ve allowed just 37 points in four home games, but Indy steamrolling towards showdown with Patriots- their road wins have been close (22-20/30-24). Jags allowing just 9.8 pg this year; they’ve run ball for 194.7 ypg in last three weeks, and are 28-55 on 3rd down during win streak, so they make plays to keep chains moving, which is critical, if they want to keep ball away from Manning. Four of five Indy games went over the total

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (ESPN | 8:30 PM ET)

The Jaguars bring a four-game winning streak into this Monday Night Football matchup, but none of their wins this season have come over an opponent with a winning record. Still, they are 6-1 straight-up at home on MNF and will look to prove they belong among the best teams in the AFC. "We've been flying under the radar," Jaguars QB David Garrard said. "Now we want a little bit of that national spotlight." SLIGHT EDGE: JAGUARS
Jacksonville's defense has been outstanding this season, as no team has scored more than 17 points against the Jags. They have forced seven turnovers in the last three games and have held their last four opponents under 100 yards rushing. BIG EDGE: JAGUARS
Indy is coming off a bye week and should play this game with a healthy Marvin Harrison (knee), Joseph Addai (shoulder) and Bob Sanders (ribs). All three missed the last game before the bye, with Harrison and Addai sitting out two games to nurse the injuries. EDGE: COLTS
The Colts will be looking for a drastic improvement from their last meeting at Jacksonville after their run defense surrendered 375 yards on the ground in a 44-17 loss last December 10th. The Jaguars are averaging 195.3 yards rushing in their last three games and will pose another difficult task for Indy. EDGE: JAGUARS
The Colts are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.
The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Monday Night Football games.
The Jaguars are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a winning team.
The Jaguars are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
The OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Jacksonville.

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars – over 44 ½

You’ve got to like the way the Jags are moving the ball right now. David Garrard still hasn’t thrown a pick and he hasn’t had a quarterback rating below 102.7 since Week 1. Maurice Jones-Drew is getting back to an elite level and you know he’s looking forward to facing the Colts again.

The last time he saw Indy’s defense he gained 181 yards on just 16 touches.

Meanwhile Peyton Manning gets Marvin Harrison and Joseph Addai back for this AFC South sizzler. I’m expecting some fireworks for Monday night.

Monday Night Football Preview

The Jacksonville Jaguars will be looking for a share of the AFC South lead on Monday when they host the division-rival (and unbeaten) Indianapolis Colts at ALLTEL Stadium.

The Jags moved to 4-1 on the season with an easy 37-17 win over the Houston Texans last Sunday. Jacksonville took a slim 10-6 lead into halftime in that contest, but they scored one touchdown in the third quarter and three more in the fourth to secure the win.

Maurice Jones-Drew might not officially be the starting running back in Jacksonville, but he carried the load for the Jags against the Texans. Jones-Drew ran for 125 yards on 12 carries in that contest and scored twice, while also catching four passes for 59 yards. Fred Taylor picked up 90 yards on the ground off six carries. On the season Jones-Drew has 307 rushing yards and three scores, while Taylor has 297 yards and no TDs.

David Garrard completed 22-of-34 pass attempts for 221 yards against Houston, with two touchdown strikes (to George Wrighster and Reggie Williams) and no interceptions. Garrard now boasts a quarterback rating of 104.7, which put him fourth in the league (behind Tom Brady, the injured Jake Delhomme, and Peyton Manning) heading into Week 7 action. Garrard has thrown for 1069 yards and six TDs, with zero interceptions.

The Jaguars are currently on a four-game winning streak; they lost to the Tennessee Titans in Week 1, but since then have reeled off victories over the Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, and Texans. To boost that winning streak to five games, though, they'll have to be the first team this season to get the better of the Colts.

Indianapolis had a bye in Week 6, so their most recent outing came at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 5. Peyton Manning and company had no trouble getting past the Bucs 33-14 in that contest, despite the fact that they were playing without both Joseph Addai and Marvin Harrison. Those two should be back on Monday.

Manning completed 29-of-37 pass attempts for 253 yards against Tampa Bay, throwing TD strikes to Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne and getting picked off once. Manning has a quarterback rating of 108.6 on the season, and he's thrown for 1319 yards and 10 touchdowns. That interception versus the Buccaneers was only his second of the year.

Kenton Keith filled in nicely for Addai against the Bucs, running for 121 yards on 28 carries and scoring a pair of TDs. Anthony Gonzalez had 71 receiving yards in the win.

The oddsmakers like the Colts' chances of improving to 6-0 on the season on Monday night, as they're pegged as 3-point road favorites. The contest's total is listed at 44.5 points. Indianapolis and Jacksonville split their two games last season - the Jaguars won 44-17 (an OVER) at home in December, and the Colts won 21-14 (an UNDER) at home in September. Both teams were also able to secure the ATS wins in those games.

Here are the official injury reports for both Indianapolis and Jacksonville for Monday …

Indianapolis Injuries
Gary Brackett LB Questionable Week 7 (abdomen)
Marvin Harrison WR Questionable Week 7 (knee)
Victor Worsley LB Questionable Week 7 (foot)

Jacksonville Injuries
Brian Smith DE P-U-P List (hip)
Josh Scobee K Out Week 7 (right quadricep)
Brent Hawkins DE Questionable Week 7 (foot)
Reggie Hayward DE Probable Week 7 (hamstring)
John Henderson DT Probable Week 7 (back)
Maurice Jones-Drew RB Probable Week 7 (thigh)
Paul Spicer DE Probable Week 7 (groin)
Fred Taylor RB Probable Week 7 (groin)

MONDAY, OCTOBER 22

****JACKSONVILLE 24 - Indianapolis 17
Jags have played the Colts
about as well as anyone in recent years, going 6-3-1 vs. spread last 10 in series,
and hammering Indy for an amazing 375 YR in LY’s meeting in Jacksonville.
Choice by HC Del Rio of QB Garrard has been a wise one, as he’s avoided any
ints. through the first six games and has scrambled for some key first downs. Indy
only 1-6 last 7 as a road favorite, and Colts figure to be at an added disadvantage
if key players such as RB Addai, WR M. Harrison, and S Bob Sanders not back
from their injuries. CABLE TV—ESPN
(06-INDY 21-Jack. 14...J.20-14 J.40/191 I.20/63 I.14/31/0/209 J.16/28/2/106 I.0 J.0)
(06-JACK. 44-Indy 17...23-23 J.42/375 I.20/34 I.25/50/1/305 J.8/14/1/72 J.0 I.0)
(06-INDIANAPOLIS -6' 21-14, JACKSONVILLE +1 44-17...SR: Indianapolis 9-3)


GOLD SHEET EXTRA

NFL SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK

NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG
JACKSONVILLE over Indianapolis

FAMILIARITY
JACKSONVILLE over Indianapolis

INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE (Monday, October 22)
Jags 3-1-1 vs.line last 5 in series, 6-3-1 last 10 meetings. Jags really ripped Colts in Indy’s last trip to Alltel late LY. Dungy 1-6 as visiting chalk since LY (0-2 TY). Del Rio 3-0 as home dog LY, 8-1-1 last 10 in role. Tech edge-Jags, based on team and
series trends.

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MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK


JACKSONVILLE over Indianapolis by 1
Colts had a week off and watched Dallas bite the undefeated dust,
leaving only themselves and the Patriots with perfect records this
season. Rest turns to rust for undefeated teams when they take to
the road, however, as indicated by a 4-12 SU & 3-12-1 ATS mark when
taking on an opponent that is off a SUATS win, including 0-5 SUATS
the last fi ve games. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are 21-13 as dogs under
Jack Del Rio, including 15-6 ATS when they are .500 or better (9-1 ATS
when facing a .750 better foe). You know what to do.

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POINTWISE


MONDAY

JACKSONVILLE 26 - Indianapolis 23 - (8:30)
The defending champion Colts,along with just the awesome Pats, remain unbeaten. Ranking 3rd on "O", & 6th on "D", they continue on their highly productive way. Manning? Try a 10/2 start,for 1,319 yds. But they run smack into another smoking outfit here. The Jags
have won their last 4 games, with RY edges of 186-47, 156-10, & 244-61 in their
last 4 games. A year ago, Jacksonville had a 375-34 RY edge over Indy here, in
that shocking 44-17 upset. The Jags are 17-4 ATS as dogs lately, while the Colts
are 7-1 ATS as Monday chalks. We'll take the Monday Night home division dog


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SPORTS MEMO

INDIANAPOLIS TRENDS
Colts are 17-8 ATS after two or more straight SU wins the last three years.
Colts are 18-24 to the Under the last three years.
Colts are 4-0 ATS the last three years on Monday Night Football.

JACKSONVILLE TRENDS
Jaguars have covers their last three game as a home dog of +3 or less.
Jaguars are 9-3 ATS as a dog the last three years.
Jaguars are 12-3 to the Over the last three years in games +3 to -3.

SERIES TRENDS
7 of 12 games in this series have gone Over the total since 1992.
Colts are 9-3 straight up against Jaguars since 1992.
Jaguars are 2-1 ATS versus Colts over the last 3 seasons.


Interesting dichotomy in this game as the Colts come off of their bye
week and catch a red hot Jags side just hitting their stride. Indy has
traditionally been a play on team in a reasonable spread range off a bye
week, winning six of the eight games straight up in the last eight years.
But one of those two losses was to Jacksonville. The Colts have been a
bit under the radar it seems as the Patriots continue to rack up impressive
blowout wins and the media flocks to them. But Indy shouldn’t be
slighted: They rank as the third best total offense, third best scoring offense,
and fifth best total defense in the league. Peyton Manning has led
this team with a 108.7 QB rating, connecting on 70% of his passes with
a five-to-one TD to INT ratio. Joseph Addai has answered all the offseason
questions about his ability to shoulder the load as the featured
back in this offense, though ironically he did suffer a slight injury to his
shoulder which kept him out a week. The Jags have been dominating
the line of scrimmage of late, shutting down opponents and crushing
them in turn with a power rush attack. David Garrard is taking care
of the football and features a QB rating over 100 as well. Jacksonville
ranks as the third best scoring defense in the league (11.6 ppg) and the
ninth best total defense, and always seems to give Indy their best shot.


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THE MAX

Monday, October 22nd, 2007
@Jaguars (+3, -120) over Colts

Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
On our phone service we went against the Colts in
their last game before the bye week hosting Tampa
Bay, and it was a very impressive performance by
an Indianapolis team riddled with injuries. With
Joseph Addai out Kenton Keith (Kenton Keith?) had
a huge game, going for 121 yards on 28 carries. In
Marvin Harrison’s absence, Reggie Wayne, Dwight
Clark and rookie Anthony Gonzalez had 7 catches
each. Safety Bob Sanders, so important to the Colts
defense, was out as well. It didn’t matter, as the
Colts rolled to a dominant win on yardage of 400-
177. The offensive line played extremely well and
Howard Mudd, the veteran offensive line coach for
Indy, is one of the best in the business. It shows
remarkable depth to lose players of that caliber and
have it not matter. And we didn’t even mention
linebacker Rob Morris, a steady performer who will
be missed. The injured offensive players should all
be back. Morris is done for the year and
importantly, Sanders doesn’t look to be back this
week.
Sanders likely absence helps the Jaguars greatly, as
you saw how critical his run support was during the
playoff run last season. And run support couldn’t be
any more important than it is in this game. The
Jags don’t have great receivers, but have a solid
running game. Even though the past few years
have been tough ones for the Jags, they match up
well against the Colts. Since being placed in the
same division in 2002 the Jaguars are 6-3-1 against
the spread. Last year they split with the Colts.
Early in the season they lost 21-14 in Indy despite
outrushing the Colts 191-63. In the rematch in
Jacksonville the Jags crushed the Colts 44-17,
running wild for 375 yards on the ground. David
Garrard is playing well and the more we see from
Jacksonville and Atlanta, the more it looks like
cutting Leftwich was addition by subtraction, both
on the field and in the locker room.
Jacksonville is a very strong team on the line of
scrimmage. During their 4-game winning streak
they’ve outgained opponents by over 60 yards in
each game. They’ve allowed their five opponents
13, 7, 14, 7, and 17 (Houston scored their only TD
of the game in the last 30 seconds) points. Look for
the Colts to have trouble scoring touchdowns
against this defense, as their red zone TD efficiency
number of 53.2% is low for a team with such a
quality offense. Indianapolis hasn’t put up big
numbers in their first two road games and the Jags
have the profile of a successful home dog in this
one. Jaguars by 3.


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THE SPORTS REPORTER

MONDAY NIGHT, OCTOBER 22
INDIANAPOLIS over *JACKSONVILLE by 3
Colts are off a bye. Jags are almost off a bye, as they were unchallenged by dinged-up
Houston on their home field during last Sunday’s second half. When the Colts lost infamously
to the Jaguars in Week 14 last year by the score of 44-17, they had a 10-2 record and a
three-game divisional lead vs. Jacksonville with four to play. In other words, Indianapolis
could afford to lose that afternoon by any score, the day that the Jaguars churned out 375
rushing yards and caused the world to react by deciding that the Colts could never win
another game in franchise history, however long it might last. We all know how that turned
out. This time, the records going into this AFC South game are 5-0 for the Colts, 4-1 for the
Jags. Big game for both. One of these teams got over the hump in big games last season.
The other still has the reputation of being a paper tiger. INDIANAPOLIS, 26-23.
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