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cmack82
04-23-2005, 09:19 AM
OK so I've come up with everything I want to play tonight on the NBA and I feel pretty confident about it. I played one game just because of CG's ideas for the 1st round. So if I lose its on you CG;) . Well here are my plays I'd like to see what others are playing and see if we all can't make some money today
Dallas -4.5 (yesterday line) pounced on it, I have 10U here.
Dal/Hou O 190.5

Det/Phi O 183
People think I'm crazy here because of Detroits defense, if you looked you would see that the 76ers have scored 106 and given up 100 in their last 5 games. I foresee Detroit putting up 100 so then we'd just need 84 out of Phil.

Bos -3 (CG's tips on this game)
Sac +4
I'm not sure about this one
Sac/Sea O 201

Well that's my plays so goodluck to everyone today lets make some cash.

dmanson
04-23-2005, 09:29 AM
Whats up Mack Man

GL on your action today dude...We're on the same OVERs 4 2night... I like them a lot .....still pondering taking SAC ....that looks like a safe play.....wonder if SEA comes out like the OLD SEA or if SAC will just run over their asses

Line up looks solid dude....Get ready to profit !

CanadianGuy
04-23-2005, 09:35 AM
good to see you around manson I thought we'd lost you there for a second.



lol, boston was my idea? I thought I had posted in the other thread how indiana has a history of game 1 road upsets???? No?

My stats said that over the past 2 years 61% of home favorites cover the spread. I'm honestly not sure about that Boston game! Apparently the reason that so many home favorites were covering last year was because of the low lines in the 4 V 5 matchups so boston could be good, I just don't know.



Hope you have a good hangover this morning cmack, since it was your bday yesterday and all :clap:

dmanson
04-23-2005, 09:37 AM
OH, I am late. but Happy B DAY CM .....
with the season coming to an end I took a trip and chilled out a little CG,,,,nevertheless we're the LOOT family here and we must claim some LOOT Brotha ....Hell X-Mas is about 7 months out...time to start stacking NOW !!!!!

Manson needs a brand new pair of shoes...hehe

CanadianGuy
04-23-2005, 09:40 AM
My thoughts on the games today. Here was my plan on what I was going to play:


Dallas -5.5

I'm taking this because cmack loves it and a buddy of mine is telling me to go hard on it, I figure they're both reliable so I gotta roll with em.


I like Philly +9 even though Detroit can play defense, and if you like Philly +9 then you like the Over 183. So I'm not going to play the philly +9 because I'm just not sure enough but I am going to play the over. It started out at 185 and it has dropped two points because more people are on the under, and how many times have we seen it drop a few points and then the total suddenly lands where it originally started at 185. I'm thinking the same thing will happen today. Today we ride the over, it ends up over, then for game 2 they raise the line and we roll with the under. Seems good to me.




So to recap, my card for today is basically cmacks two top plays:

Dallas -5.5
Det/Phil over 183

cmack82
04-23-2005, 09:57 AM
The Boston thing was just a joke CG. But honestly after watching them man handle the Nets for 3 quarters until they took Pierce and Walker out, I really can't foresee them losing this game at home. I also am quite afraid of exactly what Dman said which Seattle teams shows up today. If its the Seattle from earlier this season bye bye to my bet on that game, but if it's the Seattle we've seen for about a month I'm cashing in there.
So with that said my favorites plays for today are the Dallas game and all the total lines. Let's make some cash.

CanadianGuy
04-23-2005, 10:00 AM
Yeah i knew you were joking :D I think I'd hold off on the boston game, see what happens in game 1 then if indy upsets for game one you take boston for game 2.

cmack82
04-23-2005, 04:58 PM
alright 1-0 lets keep the train rolling.

CanadianGuy
04-23-2005, 05:10 PM
191? I like it alot, we're being setup perfectly for a game 2 under assuming the odds makers up the line to around 190-192 like they should.

cmack82
04-23-2005, 06:42 PM
yeah no doubt. Wow this Mavericks game is keeping my heart pumping.

CanadianGuy
04-23-2005, 06:43 PM
I think they'll win the game but I don't know about the spread, I'm kinda nervous

cmack82
04-23-2005, 07:26 PM
Well that game just crushed me for the day. CG how do you feel about Peavy winning for the Padres tonight?

CanadianGuy
04-23-2005, 07:32 PM
mmmm, no MLB for me tonight, if I had to guess I'd say SD but it's a toss up really.

cmack82
04-23-2005, 08:10 PM
Well after I started getting decimated by Houston I upped my bet on the Boston games to 10U also. I hope they can hold on, if the Padres can pull it out I'll have a good day.

cmack82
04-23-2005, 09:22 PM
CG I would like to thank you for posting the thing about 1st round home favorites because I went ahead and laid 11U total on Boston after Dallas lost to compensate for it. CG you the man.

CanadianGuy
04-23-2005, 10:57 PM
No problem bud. I would have gone hard on Boston myself but I went back to past game 1's in the first round and Indy had a long history of pulling out game 1 upsets on the road so it scared me off.

What's going to be interesting these next couple days are the OU's. Will the Detroit OU go up? Will the Boston line go down? I sort of want to play the opposite in both of those games than what happened today, but it really depends on if the move the line. You'd assume if they left the Detroit line at 183 again then everyone would pick the over...and vegas doesn't want that. I"d assume they put it up to around 190 and then we pounce on the under...right?



Have a look at last years scores....game 1's with the totals:

Memphis 74 at San Antonio 98 = 172
Boston 88 at Indiana 104 = 192
New York 83 at New Jersey 107 = 190
Houston 71 at Los Angeles 72 = 143
Denver 92 at Minnesota 106 = 198
Milwaukee 82 at Detroit 108 = 190
New Orleans 79 at Miami 81 = 160
Dallas 105 at Sacramento 116 = 221





Now lets check out the game 2's:

Houston 84 at Los Angeles 98 = 182
Memphis 70 at San Antonio 87 = 157
Dallas 79 at Sacramento 83 = 162
Boston 90 at Indiana 103 = 193
New York 81 at New Jersey 99 = 180
New Orleans 63 at Miami 93 = 156
Denver 81 at Minnesota 95 = 176
Milwaukee 92 at Detroit 88 = 180


Lets have a closer look at each game (I got time to do this tonight, can't be drinkin, got finals on monday/tuesday/wednesday):

game 1
Memphis 74 at San Antonio 98 = 172
game 2
Memphis 70 at San Antonio 87 = 157


game 1
Boston 88 at Indiana 104 = 192
game 2
Boston 90 at Indiana 103 = 193


game 1
New York 83 at New Jersey 107 = 190
game 2
New York 81 at New Jersey 99 = 180


game 1
Houston 71 at Los Angeles 72 = 143
game 2
Houston 84 at Los Angeles 98 = 182


game 1
Denver 92 at Minnesota 106 = 198
game 2
Denver 81 at Minnesota 95 = 176


game 1
Milwaukee 82 at Detroit 108 = 190
game 2
Milwaukee 92 at Detroit 88 = 180


game 1
New Orleans 79 at Miami 81 = 160
game 2
New Orleans 63 at Miami 93 = 156


game 1
Dallas 105 at Sacramento 116 = 221
game 2
Dallas 79 at Sacramento 83 = 162






lol, raise your hand if you have seen the pattern yet!!!!lol


6 of the 8 series had lower scores the second game than in game 1....with the exception of the obvious, the laker series in game 1 came in in the 140s, you can't expect that to happen for game 2. But you guys see what I"m getting at right????



Let's see if the pattern continues for the 2003 playoffs (I'm writing this on the fly so it may not work out, we'll see)




2003 playoffs:



game 1's:
Boston 103 at Indiana 100 = 203
Phoenix 96 at San Antonio 95 = 191
Portland 86 at Dallas 96 = 182
Utah 90 at Sacramento 96 = 186
Milwaukee 96 at New Jersey 109 = 205
Orlando 99 at Detroit 94 = 193
Los Angeles 117 at Minnesota 98 = 215
New Orleans 90 at Philadelphia 98 = 188



game 2's:
Utah 95 at Sacramento 108 = 203
Phoenix 76 at San Antonio 84 = 160
Boston 77 at Indiana 89 = 166
Milwaukee 88 at New Jersey 85 = 173
Los Angeles 91 at Minnesota 119 = 210
New Orleans 85 at Philadelphia 90 = 175
Orlando 77 at Detroit 89 = 166
Portland 99 at Dallas 103 = 202







game 1
Boston 103 at Indiana 100 = 203
game 2
Boston 77 at Indiana 89 = 166


game 1
Phoenix 96 at San Antonio 95 = 191
game 2
Phoenix 76 at San Antonio 84 = 160


game 1
Portland 86 at Dallas 96 = 182
game 2
Portland 99 at Dallas 103 = 202


game 1
Utah 90 at Sacramento 96 = 186
game 2
Utah 95 at Sacramento 108 = 203


game 1
Milwaukee 96 at New Jersey 109 = 205
game 2
Milwaukee 88 at New Jersey 85 = 173


game 1
Orlando 99 at Detroit 94 = 193
game 2
Orlando 77 at Detroit 89 = 166


game 1
Los Angeles 117 at Minnesota 98 = 215
game 2
Los Angeles 91 at Minnesota 119 = 210


game 1
New Orleans 90 at Philadelphia 98 = 188
game 2
New Orleans 85 at Philadelphia 90 = 175







Very similar pattern going on this season too with the exception of these two series:


game 1
Portland 86 at Dallas 96 = 182
game 2
Portland 99 at Dallas 103 = 202


game 1
Utah 90 at Sacramento 96 = 186
game 2
Utah 95 at Sacramento 108 = 203





However in both of these series both first games had lower scores than what these teams are used to. We can only assume (unless someone could find out which would be nice)


I"m going to end this post and ocntinue anotehr one so i dont lose all my work....just found out last years OU's, pretty interesting

CanadianGuy
04-23-2005, 11:12 PM
Alright I have gotten ahold of the OU's for these games, lets compare the data:



2003 first



game 1
Boston 103 at Indiana 100 = 203
OU 179 Reselt = OVER
game 2
Boston 77 at Indiana 89 = 166
OU 182 Result = UNDER


game 1
Phoenix 96 at San Antonio 95 = 191
OU 187 Result = OVER
game 2
Phoenix 76 at San Antonio 84 = 160
OU 184.5 Result = UNDER


game 1
Portland 86 at Dallas 96 = 182
OU 193 Result = UNDER
game 2
Portland 99 at Dallas 103 = 202
OU 192 Result = OVER


game 1
Utah 90 at Sacramento 96 = 186
OU 187.5 Result = UNDER
game 2
Utah 95 at Sacramento 108 = 203
OU 187 Result = OVER


lol who has seen the pattern yet!? But I will keep going


game 1
Milwaukee 96 at New Jersey 109 = 205
OU 188.5 Result = OVER
game 2
Milwaukee 88 at New Jersey 85 = 173
OU 189 Result = UNDER


game 1
Orlando 99 at Detroit 94 = 193
OU 182.5 Result = OVER
game 2
Orlando 77 at Detroit 89 = 166
OU 183.5 Result = UNDER

We're still going, lol


game 1
Los Angeles 117 at Minnesota 98 = 215
OU 200 Result = OVER
game 2
Los Angeles 91 at Minnesota 119 = 210
OU 201 Result = OVER

****first time hasn't worked

game 1
New Orleans 90 at Philadelphia 98 = 188
OU 183 Result = OVER
game 2
New Orleans 85 at Philadelphia 90 = 175
OU 182 Result =UNDER





OK so out of 8 series, 7 of them went the opposite way on the OU in game 2!!! We should also note that the only one that this didn't work for is OU's that were 200+


Going to start a new post for the 2004 numbers so I don't lose my work

CanadianGuy
04-23-2005, 11:24 PM
2004 playoff numbers:

game 1
Memphis 74 at San Antonio 98 = 172
OU 174 Result = UNDER
game 2
Memphis 70 at San Antonio 87 = 157
OU 174.5 Result = UNDER


game 1
Boston 88 at Indiana 104 = 192
OU 180 Result = OVER
game 2
Boston 90 at Indiana 103 = 193
OU 182.5 Result = OVER



hmmm, this is strange

game 1
New York 83 at New Jersey 107 = 190
OU 177 Result = OVER
game 2
New York 81 at New Jersey 99 = 180
OU 179.5 Result = OVER

game 1
Houston 71 at Los Angeles 72 = 143
OU 180.5 Result = UNDER
game 2
Houston 84 at Los Angeles 98 = 182
OU 176 Result = OVER

game 1
Denver 92 at Minnesota 106 = 198
OU 187.5 Result = OVER
game 2
Denver 81 at Minnesota 95 = 176
OU 189.5 Result = UNDER

game 1
Milwaukee 82 at Detroit 108 = 190
OU 177 Result = OVER
game 2
Milwaukee 92 at Detroit 88 = 180
OU 180.5 Result = UNDER

game 1
New Orleans 79 at Miami 81 = 160
OU 176.5 Result = UNDER
game 2
New Orleans 63 at Miami 93 = 156
OU 173.5 Result = UNDER


game 1
Dallas 105 at Sacramento 116 = 221
OU 218.5 Result = OVER
game 2
Dallas 79 at Sacramento 83 = 162
OU 219 Result = UNDER





hmmm, this season different than 2003. 4 times it went the opposite and 4 times it went the same.


Well I"m off to bed, we'll analyze this more tomorrow

CanadianGuy
04-24-2005, 10:46 AM
Updated EVERYTHING! (updated again 04/25 9AM)

Game 1 home team covers: 6/8
Game 2 home team covers: 0/2
Game 2 score drops from game 1 1/2


2005 playoff numbers:

game 1
Philly 85 Detroit (-9) 106 = 191
OU 183 Result = OVER
Game 2
philly detroit (-9)
OU 184.5


game 1
Houston 98 Dallas (-5) 86 = 184
OU 191 Result = UNDER
Game 2
Houston Dallas (-7)
OU 189.5


game 1
Indy 82 Boston (-3) 102 = 184
OU 188 Result = UNDER
Game 2
Indy Boston (-3.5)
OU 187


game 1
Sacramento 82 Seattle (-4) 87 = 159
OU 205 Result = UNDER
game 2
sacramento seattle (-3)
OU 202



game 1
New Jersey 98 @Miami 116 (-8) = 214
OU 184.5 Result = OVER
game 2
new jersey miami (-8)
OU 187.5


game 1
washington 94 chicago 103 (-4) = 197
OU 193 Result = OVER
game 2
washington chicago (-3.5)
OU 195.5


game 1
Denver 93 @San Antonio 87 (-7.5) = 180
OU 191 Result = UNDER
game 2
Denver San Antonio (-9)
OU 189.5


game 1
Memphis 103 Phoenix 114 (-9)= 217
OU 205 Result = OVER
game 2
Memphis Phoenix (-8)
OU 206.5













2004 playoff numbers:

game 1
Memphis 74 at San Antonio (-9.5) 98 = 172 spread covered home
OU 174 Result = UNDER
game 2
Memphis 70 at San Antonio (-9.5) 87 = 157 spread covered home
OU 174.5 Result = UNDER


game 1
Boston 88 at Indiana (-11.5) 104 = 192 spread covered home
OU 180 Result = OVER
game 2
Boston 90 at Indiana (-9.5) 103 = 193 spread covered home
OU 182.5 Result = OVER


game 1
New York 83 at New Jersey (-7.5) 107 = 190 spread covered home
OU 177 Result = OVER
game 2
New York 81 at New Jersey (-8.5) 99 = 180 spread covered home
OU 179.5 Result = OVER

game 1
Houston 71 at Los Angeles 72 (-8) = 143 spread not covered home team
OU 180.5 Result = UNDER
game 2
Houston 84 at Los Angeles 98 (-7.5)= 182 spread covered home team
OU 176 Result = OVER

game 1
Denver 92 at Minnesota 106(-11.5) = 198 spread covered home taem
OU 187.5 Result = OVER
game 2
Denver 81 at Minnesota 95 (-10.5)= 176 spread covered home team
OU 189.5 Result = UNDER

game 1
Milwaukee 82 at Detroit 108 (-10.5) = 190 spread covered home team
OU 177 Result = OVER
game 2
Milwaukee 92 at Detroit 88 (-12)= 180 spread not covered home team
OU 180.5 Result = UNDER

game 1
New Orleans 79 at Miami 81 (-6) = 160 spread not covered home team
OU 176.5 Result = UNDER
game 2
New Orleans 63 at Miami 93 (-5.5) = 156 spread covered home team
OU 173.5 Result = UNDER


game 1
Dallas 105 at Sacramento 116 (-5.5) = 221 spread covered home team
OU 218.5 Result = OVER
game 2
Dallas 79 at Sacramento 83 (-4.5) = 162 spread not covered home team
OU 219 Result = UNDER




2003:



game 1
Boston 103 at Indiana 100 (-6.5) = 203 spread not covered by home team
OU 179 Reselt = OVER
game 2
Boston 77 at Indiana 89 (-7.5) = 166 spread covered by home team
OU 182 Result = UNDER


game 1
Phoenix 96 at San Antonio 95 (-8.5)= 191 spread not covered by home team
OU 187 Result = OVER
game 2
Phoenix 76 at San Antonio 84 (-9)= 160 spread not covered by home team
OU 184.5 Result = UNDER


game 1
Portland 86 at Dallas 96 (-6)= 182 spread covered by home team
OU 193 Result = UNDER
game 2
Portland 99 at Dallas 103 (-6)= 202 spread not covered by home team
OU 192 Result = OVER


game 1
Utah 90 at Sacramento 96 (-9) = 186 spread not covered by home team
OU 187.5 Result = UNDER
game 2
Utah 95 at Sacramento 108 (-9.5) = 203 spread covered by home team
OU 187 Result = OVER




game 1
Milwaukee 96 at New Jersey 109 (-6.5) = 205 home team covered spread
OU 188.5 Result = OVER
game 2
Milwaukee 88 at New Jersey 85 (-6.5) = 173 spread not covered by home team
OU 189 Result = UNDER


game 1
Orlando 99 at Detroit 94 (-5) = 193 spread not covered by home team
OU 182.5 Result = OVER
game 2
Orlando 77 at Detroit 89 (-6)= 166 spread covered by home team
OU 183.5 Result = UNDER




game 1
Los Angeles 117 at Minnesota 98 (+2.5)= 215 spread not covered by home team
OU 200 Result = OVER
game 2
Los Angeles 91 at Minnesota 119 (+3.5)= 210 spread covered by home team
OU 201 Result = OVER


game 1
New Orleans 90 at Philadelphia 98 (-4.5) = 188 spread covered by home team
OU 183 Result = OVER
game 2
New Orleans 85 at Philadelphia 90 (-4)= 175 spread covered by home team
OU 182 Result =UNDER

CanadianGuy
04-24-2005, 11:04 AM
oops doubel post

CanadianGuy
04-24-2005, 11:04 AM
Alright, some stats based off that data:

Spreads:
spread covered first game and second game by home team: 4/9 times
spread not covered first game by home team but DID cover second game: 6/7 times

Ou's:
OU's in the 170's always yeild the same result for the second game
OU's between 181 and 199 go the opposite way the 2nd game 7/7 times
OU's > 200 that go over the first game go over the 2nd game 2/2 times






Card for game 2's based on these stats:

Detroit UNDER 184
Dallas -7
Dallas OVER 189.5
Boston OVER 187



Miami UNDER 187
Chicago UNDER
San Antonio spread
San Antonio OVER

Not sure what to think about the Seattle game

CanadianGuy
04-25-2005, 08:41 AM
Alright some facts for game 1's. Home teams covered 6 out of 8 games!!! Makes me wish I had played my strategy of taking every home favorite. Game 2's will most likely be a different story with the exception of Dallas and San Antonio. Those are two plays that should definetly be made if the trends over the past years hold true (and so far they have in game 1 trends).


Game 2 card based off the trends:



Detroit UNDER 184
Dallas -7
Dallas OVER 189.5
Boston OVER 187



Miami UNDER 187
Chicago UNDER
San Antonio spread
San Antonio OVER
Phoenix OVER

cmack82
04-25-2005, 10:11 AM
By using past trends it would make sense to take SA against the spread, but remember Denver has been hotter than hot with Karl at the helm. Dallas should cover tonight but also you have to remember that Houston was won 8 straight games. I don't really like going against the streaks of teams so I think I'll just play safe today and take Boston -3.5 and Dal/Hou O 189.5. Well goodluck to everyone hope my input can be of some help to anyone.

CanadianGuy
04-25-2005, 10:21 PM
Something else I just noticed, 12/16 series over the past 2 years, the total score has gone down in game 2 from game 1. lol, that probably would have helped with the boston game tonight, can't believe I didnt notice it. I'll make the changes for tomorrows games.