Louie
09-06-2005, 10:31 PM
<CENTER>Forget the Superstars
Successful NFL betting comes down to the nitty gritty</CENTER>
By Jason Brough,
<a href="http://www.bodoglife.com/welcome/74880.html">Bodog</a> Staff Writer
The serious football fan knows Randy Moss debuts for the Raiders on Sept. 8. The serious bettor understands how to exploit his change in uniform.
In this era of free agency, the summer months can witness significant transformations for some teams. If you've kept up, you'll have a leg up on games like the NFL season-opener when the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots welcome Moss and his new Oakland teammates to Gillette Stadium.
If you haven't paid close attention, you're going to be at the books' mercy come Week 1. (And just so you know, the books are a little short on mercy.)
What should you be looking for during the offseason?
Lots of stuff.
But start by reviewing all major transactions involving superstar players. The addition or subtraction of a superstar will obviously affect a team's performance. But beware. Star athletes receive an inordinate share of media and fan attention, and the public often overreacts to moves involving high-profile players.
There's more to a team than
one superstar. Take the Moss trade from Minnesota.
Oakland now has three great wide receivers in Moss, Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry. Add QB Kerry Collins and his ability to deliver the deep ball and the Raiders should bust out some big plays this year. At least that's what everyone's talking about.
But as the saying goes, "Defense wins football games," and the Raiders are suspect on the other side of the ball. Once again, they're switching defensive schemes and going back to the 4-3. They're also relying on a number of young players to make this transition - a recipe for confusion.
When a player like Moss comes to a team, there is always heightened optimism. But Moss never won a Super Bowl in Minnesota and many experts say he'll be hard-pressed to see the playoffs in Oakland.
Avoid the trap of irrational exuberance that can occur with the addition of superstar players. Accordingly, do not assume a team that loses a high-profile player is going to struggle.
The Minnesota Vikings should get along just fine without Moss, thank you very much. They will certainly have to make some changes to the offense - for example, call more play action to free up receivers - but rookie WR Troy Williamson should still provide a decent deep threat. And let's not forget that Nate Burleson and Marcus Robinson are very capable receivers.
More importantly, on defense the Vikes added five likely starters via trades and free agency - LBs Sam Cowart and Napoleon Harris, DT Pat Williams, CB Fred Smoot and FS Darren Sharper - and drafted one of college football's premier pass rushers in DE Erasmus James.
Casual bettors will focus on Moss
Still, many recreational bettors will dwell on the fact that Moss is gone. The same holds true for other star players and the effect they have on their teams.
"The Indianapolis Colts are a heavy public favorite because they do well every year and have big names like Peyton Manning and Edgerrin James. However, they have never won a Super Bowl," says Bodog oddsmaker Todd Allen.
Allen adds that many recreational players ignore offseason transactions that don't involve superstars. "When there are subtle moves involving a solid linebacker or nose tackle, most people don't pay attention and still focus on the big quarterback or running back," Allen says.
But the subtle research is what the books are doing, so if you're a serious bettor, you'd better be doing it yourself. The majority of recreational bettors don't take the time to delve into the nuts and bolts of an upcoming game. This isn't a slight on them; they aren't out to make a living betting on sports. For them, the thrill they experience backing their favorite team with a few dollars is worth the expense of an occasional ill-advised wager.
At Bodog.com, our bookmakers handicap the games themselves, compare their results with the opening lines out of Vegas and make adjustments based on the historical action of Bodog's player base. Long-standing reputation of teams is a large consideration because the majority of action comes from people who do little statistical analysis.
Therefore, if you can uncover a subtle angle that the majority of our bettors are apt to ignore (or are simply unaware of), you are at a distinct advantage.
For example - getting back to the Colts - everyone knows that Manning is a great quarterback. But he isn't the most mobile of passers. Granted, he has a quick release and reads defenses superbly, but he still needs solid pass protection to thrive.
So what happens if one or two of his offensive linemen get injured? For most recreational bettors, an injury to a right guard is about as noteworthy as their morning coffee. But to a sharp bettor who knows the Colts don't have much depth on the offensive line, it means a less effective Manning and a potential adjustment to his wagering strategy.
And that goes double for the playoffs.
Just kidding, Peyton. Sort of.
Successful NFL betting comes down to the nitty gritty</CENTER>
By Jason Brough,
<a href="http://www.bodoglife.com/welcome/74880.html">Bodog</a> Staff Writer
The serious football fan knows Randy Moss debuts for the Raiders on Sept. 8. The serious bettor understands how to exploit his change in uniform.
In this era of free agency, the summer months can witness significant transformations for some teams. If you've kept up, you'll have a leg up on games like the NFL season-opener when the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots welcome Moss and his new Oakland teammates to Gillette Stadium.
If you haven't paid close attention, you're going to be at the books' mercy come Week 1. (And just so you know, the books are a little short on mercy.)
What should you be looking for during the offseason?
Lots of stuff.
But start by reviewing all major transactions involving superstar players. The addition or subtraction of a superstar will obviously affect a team's performance. But beware. Star athletes receive an inordinate share of media and fan attention, and the public often overreacts to moves involving high-profile players.
There's more to a team than
one superstar. Take the Moss trade from Minnesota.
Oakland now has three great wide receivers in Moss, Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry. Add QB Kerry Collins and his ability to deliver the deep ball and the Raiders should bust out some big plays this year. At least that's what everyone's talking about.
But as the saying goes, "Defense wins football games," and the Raiders are suspect on the other side of the ball. Once again, they're switching defensive schemes and going back to the 4-3. They're also relying on a number of young players to make this transition - a recipe for confusion.
When a player like Moss comes to a team, there is always heightened optimism. But Moss never won a Super Bowl in Minnesota and many experts say he'll be hard-pressed to see the playoffs in Oakland.
Avoid the trap of irrational exuberance that can occur with the addition of superstar players. Accordingly, do not assume a team that loses a high-profile player is going to struggle.
The Minnesota Vikings should get along just fine without Moss, thank you very much. They will certainly have to make some changes to the offense - for example, call more play action to free up receivers - but rookie WR Troy Williamson should still provide a decent deep threat. And let's not forget that Nate Burleson and Marcus Robinson are very capable receivers.
More importantly, on defense the Vikes added five likely starters via trades and free agency - LBs Sam Cowart and Napoleon Harris, DT Pat Williams, CB Fred Smoot and FS Darren Sharper - and drafted one of college football's premier pass rushers in DE Erasmus James.
Casual bettors will focus on Moss
Still, many recreational bettors will dwell on the fact that Moss is gone. The same holds true for other star players and the effect they have on their teams.
"The Indianapolis Colts are a heavy public favorite because they do well every year and have big names like Peyton Manning and Edgerrin James. However, they have never won a Super Bowl," says Bodog oddsmaker Todd Allen.
Allen adds that many recreational players ignore offseason transactions that don't involve superstars. "When there are subtle moves involving a solid linebacker or nose tackle, most people don't pay attention and still focus on the big quarterback or running back," Allen says.
But the subtle research is what the books are doing, so if you're a serious bettor, you'd better be doing it yourself. The majority of recreational bettors don't take the time to delve into the nuts and bolts of an upcoming game. This isn't a slight on them; they aren't out to make a living betting on sports. For them, the thrill they experience backing their favorite team with a few dollars is worth the expense of an occasional ill-advised wager.
At Bodog.com, our bookmakers handicap the games themselves, compare their results with the opening lines out of Vegas and make adjustments based on the historical action of Bodog's player base. Long-standing reputation of teams is a large consideration because the majority of action comes from people who do little statistical analysis.
Therefore, if you can uncover a subtle angle that the majority of our bettors are apt to ignore (or are simply unaware of), you are at a distinct advantage.
For example - getting back to the Colts - everyone knows that Manning is a great quarterback. But he isn't the most mobile of passers. Granted, he has a quick release and reads defenses superbly, but he still needs solid pass protection to thrive.
So what happens if one or two of his offensive linemen get injured? For most recreational bettors, an injury to a right guard is about as noteworthy as their morning coffee. But to a sharp bettor who knows the Colts don't have much depth on the offensive line, it means a less effective Manning and a potential adjustment to his wagering strategy.
And that goes double for the playoffs.
Just kidding, Peyton. Sort of.