mfischer1
08-09-2007, 10:48 AM
Here's my analysis of the USC-Idaho game. Looking for any and all feedback :)
Idaho +44.5 vs. USC -44.5
My Pick: USC -44.5 :deal:
To start with, I’d like to point out some pure logistics. USC covering means they need 28 points in the first half, and at least 17 in the second half, without conceding a point. Considering we are looking at possibly the strongest defense in the nation, something that the Leinart and Palmer teams never had; I find it hard to believe that Idaho will score more than 3 points.
It’s extremely obvious that USC will win this game, but how are they going to cover 44.5 points? I’m going to outline the main reasons.
• Special Teams
o Idaho will have to get deep into USC territory for the short ranged Idaho Kicker. Junior Tino Amancio has a career long FG of 49 yards. His stats from 30+ are a paltry 2-6. He’s never attempted a 50+ yard FG. Idaho may get into field goal range has a few times, but Amancio will not be able to connect from anything longer than 25-30 yards.
• Reserves
o Pete Carroll will play his starters for the first half. In the second half, Carroll will get to display the depth of his team and flaunt the domination of his recruiting program. In EVERY single position, Carroll has at least one 5 star recruit backing up the starter. In key positions (WR, QB, RB, DE, CB, S) Carroll boasts as many as six 5 star recruits. These players will not simply run the clock down; many of them are in competition for starting positions and will play their heart out against the hapless Vandals in an effort to prove they are worthy of a starting role. At best, the starting players for Idaho would compete with USC’s walk-ons for a spot on the scout team.
• Youth
o All over the field, Idaho features many new starters, most notably in the secondary and the offensive line. These are the worst spots to have inexperience on the field. The secondary will be outmatched by USC’s speed on offense and John Booty is great and throwing the long ball. This is what USC will attack most during this game, resulting in several long touchdown passes. On the other side of the ball, USC will give the big (6’5, 225 lbs) RS Freshman Idaho QB, Nathan Enderle nightmares. The new offensive line will struggle to find cohesiveness and the Trojan defensive line and linebackers will dominate, forcing Enderle to make quick, poor decisions. This will lead to numerous turnovers
As you can see, when taking these points together, the 44.5 margin seems realistic. If you give the Trojan defense 7 points (very low in my opinion), that’s asking the offense to only score 3 TD’s a half. Not only is this completely doable, but historically speaking, the Trojans have done this numerous times. In the Pete Carroll era, his teams have consistently beaten teams by the 44.5+ margin. This trend will continue as this is possibly the worst team the Trojans have played this century. Look for USC to comfortably cover winning by a score of something like 66-3.
Idaho +44.5 vs. USC -44.5
My Pick: USC -44.5 :deal:
To start with, I’d like to point out some pure logistics. USC covering means they need 28 points in the first half, and at least 17 in the second half, without conceding a point. Considering we are looking at possibly the strongest defense in the nation, something that the Leinart and Palmer teams never had; I find it hard to believe that Idaho will score more than 3 points.
It’s extremely obvious that USC will win this game, but how are they going to cover 44.5 points? I’m going to outline the main reasons.
• Special Teams
o Idaho will have to get deep into USC territory for the short ranged Idaho Kicker. Junior Tino Amancio has a career long FG of 49 yards. His stats from 30+ are a paltry 2-6. He’s never attempted a 50+ yard FG. Idaho may get into field goal range has a few times, but Amancio will not be able to connect from anything longer than 25-30 yards.
• Reserves
o Pete Carroll will play his starters for the first half. In the second half, Carroll will get to display the depth of his team and flaunt the domination of his recruiting program. In EVERY single position, Carroll has at least one 5 star recruit backing up the starter. In key positions (WR, QB, RB, DE, CB, S) Carroll boasts as many as six 5 star recruits. These players will not simply run the clock down; many of them are in competition for starting positions and will play their heart out against the hapless Vandals in an effort to prove they are worthy of a starting role. At best, the starting players for Idaho would compete with USC’s walk-ons for a spot on the scout team.
• Youth
o All over the field, Idaho features many new starters, most notably in the secondary and the offensive line. These are the worst spots to have inexperience on the field. The secondary will be outmatched by USC’s speed on offense and John Booty is great and throwing the long ball. This is what USC will attack most during this game, resulting in several long touchdown passes. On the other side of the ball, USC will give the big (6’5, 225 lbs) RS Freshman Idaho QB, Nathan Enderle nightmares. The new offensive line will struggle to find cohesiveness and the Trojan defensive line and linebackers will dominate, forcing Enderle to make quick, poor decisions. This will lead to numerous turnovers
As you can see, when taking these points together, the 44.5 margin seems realistic. If you give the Trojan defense 7 points (very low in my opinion), that’s asking the offense to only score 3 TD’s a half. Not only is this completely doable, but historically speaking, the Trojans have done this numerous times. In the Pete Carroll era, his teams have consistently beaten teams by the 44.5+ margin. This trend will continue as this is possibly the worst team the Trojans have played this century. Look for USC to comfortably cover winning by a score of something like 66-3.