Louie
07-26-2011, 12:33 AM
2010 Season: 79-75 +12,230
Ok...I'm going to break down my thinking on this one as I am making a larger move on this one then usual. This one really is a big ('Game of the Year' esque) play in my opinion and worth playing at a higher value.
I really love this one for Tuesday....
So...Match-up...tonight we have.....
Detroit (Verlander) -155 @ Chi. Sox (Peavy) +145
Detroit (Verlander) -1.5 +100 @ Chi .Sox (Peavy) +1.5 -115
First order....Jake Peavy:
Jake is coming off a three game losing streak heading into this one. As you may know, I tend to like pitchers (especially decent ones pitching at home) who are coming off three straight losses...The law of averages tends to catch up, meaning they will usually break the slump & put forth a decent outing.
I think it's worth noting that Peavy didn't give a up a single home run during his three-game slide & his ERA actually went down in his last start (at KC where he gave up three runs & struck out five).
Jake is definitely due for a 'W' and solid outing here. With an over-due Peavy at home, the runline +1.5 runs (@ -115) and the moneyline (@ +145) have value. With the Sox & Peavy (at home), you have a solid starter that...
1) ...you know can put up a good outing;
2) ...doesn't give up a lot of dingers (good for the runline)
3) ...is on a 3-game slide & is due for a "W" (while the public thinks it's a bad play).
For "D-Town", the 13-million dollar man & "staff ace", Justin Verlander will take "the hill".
With the 13-5 (& 2.24 era) Verlander, you got a starter who...
1) ...is routinely overpriced....and is laying big chalk (@ -155) on the road tonight
2) ...is making his 4th road start in his last five outings & definetly due for a loss)
3) ...is facing a hot division team that has seen his stuff (& has beat him up before)
4) ...got slapped around last time he faced Chicago. (5 runs on 7 hits...in 6 innings)
I have always claimed (and continue to state) that the key to successful sports handicapping (especially baseball handicapping) is about playing the averages and finding good value. After what I have stated about this play, I don't know how one fails to see value (or at least some value) in taking the Sox & Peavy (@ home) w/ the run line & only 15 cent juice (or the ML at +145).
In my book, this is absolutley a no-brainer & is worth every last dollar of my (biggest) 4-unit play. But, I really do feel I have been making value plays in the bases all season long this year (yea..I'm proud of my work again this year)...
I am also adding a (1.5 unit) play on the under...
Chicago White Sox +1.5 -115
Note: J. Peavy Must Go For Action
(2300 to win 2000)
Tigers/White Sox Under 7.5
Note: Verlander & Peavy Must Go For Action
(825 to win 750)
Good Luck Everyone!! :goodluck:
Hoping for a big winner here!! :dollarsign:
:thumbsup:
Ok...I'm going to break down my thinking on this one as I am making a larger move on this one then usual. This one really is a big ('Game of the Year' esque) play in my opinion and worth playing at a higher value.
I really love this one for Tuesday....
So...Match-up...tonight we have.....
Detroit (Verlander) -155 @ Chi. Sox (Peavy) +145
Detroit (Verlander) -1.5 +100 @ Chi .Sox (Peavy) +1.5 -115
First order....Jake Peavy:
Jake is coming off a three game losing streak heading into this one. As you may know, I tend to like pitchers (especially decent ones pitching at home) who are coming off three straight losses...The law of averages tends to catch up, meaning they will usually break the slump & put forth a decent outing.
I think it's worth noting that Peavy didn't give a up a single home run during his three-game slide & his ERA actually went down in his last start (at KC where he gave up three runs & struck out five).
Jake is definitely due for a 'W' and solid outing here. With an over-due Peavy at home, the runline +1.5 runs (@ -115) and the moneyline (@ +145) have value. With the Sox & Peavy (at home), you have a solid starter that...
1) ...you know can put up a good outing;
2) ...doesn't give up a lot of dingers (good for the runline)
3) ...is on a 3-game slide & is due for a "W" (while the public thinks it's a bad play).
For "D-Town", the 13-million dollar man & "staff ace", Justin Verlander will take "the hill".
With the 13-5 (& 2.24 era) Verlander, you got a starter who...
1) ...is routinely overpriced....and is laying big chalk (@ -155) on the road tonight
2) ...is making his 4th road start in his last five outings & definetly due for a loss)
3) ...is facing a hot division team that has seen his stuff (& has beat him up before)
4) ...got slapped around last time he faced Chicago. (5 runs on 7 hits...in 6 innings)
I have always claimed (and continue to state) that the key to successful sports handicapping (especially baseball handicapping) is about playing the averages and finding good value. After what I have stated about this play, I don't know how one fails to see value (or at least some value) in taking the Sox & Peavy (@ home) w/ the run line & only 15 cent juice (or the ML at +145).
In my book, this is absolutley a no-brainer & is worth every last dollar of my (biggest) 4-unit play. But, I really do feel I have been making value plays in the bases all season long this year (yea..I'm proud of my work again this year)...
I am also adding a (1.5 unit) play on the under...
Chicago White Sox +1.5 -115
Note: J. Peavy Must Go For Action
(2300 to win 2000)
Tigers/White Sox Under 7.5
Note: Verlander & Peavy Must Go For Action
(825 to win 750)
Good Luck Everyone!! :goodluck:
Hoping for a big winner here!! :dollarsign:
:thumbsup: