BW NCAA Week 3 with analysis

[bigwinnner8]

This'll be my running thread for the week, I went through the card and here's what jumped out at me. Opinions welcome.


ND -4.5 vs MSU - There is no reason the #15 team with a high public perception should be +5.5 vs a 0-2 team with 2 heartbreaking losses. Vegas knows something bettors don't. I'll wait until Saturday and get on ND as a contrarian play.

LSU -3 at Miss St - MSU gave up 380 yds, put up 531 and lost to Auburn. First MSU home game and the public $ is going to be on LSU, and I love the Thursday Night Home Dog.

Boise -20 at Toledo - Couldn't ask for a better team to go to Toledo after the Rockets have had two nice showings. Boise rolls in these situations.

Georgia Tech -15 vs Kansas - Big revenge spot for the Jackets after getting rolled by KU last year, a great running game vs a terrible run D.

Tennessee +10 at Florida - Tennessee is still undervalued, Bray is the best QB in the SEC, they might win this one.

Louisville +7 @ Kentucky - Rivalry game, KU has been outgained 627-578 by the MAC and Western Kentucky and is 2-0, Louisville is 1-1 and has outgained their opponents 2:1, Kentucky sucks as a home favorite.

Stanford -10 vs AZ - I'm going to take Stanford until proven otherwise, Luck and company tear apart a young defense.

Iowa -3 vs Pitt - Ferentz has a great record after a loss, Pitt struggled with Maine and Buffalo and is in a look-ahead spot with ND on deck.



Early season undervalued teams:
Tennessee
Stanford
UCF (playing USF)
USF (playing UCF)

Wrong team favored (1st team is favored, 2nd team should be):
ASU vs Illinois
Clemson vs Auburn
Colorado vs Col St
WMU vs CMU
Maryland vs WV
Minnesota vs Miami OH

[Npdolly]

Bw-- with you all the way on miss St. Love them on Thursday just waiting around for the line to move higher!

[Lion King]

Nice posts bw. I am loving Stanford all year.They've yet to give up an td on defense this year. Keep your eye on Houston too. They are 2-0 ats so far and I don't see them stopping anytime soon so long as Casey doesnt break a leg this year.

[Louie]

(Gave Thanks To BW8)

Good Post! Keep up the good work this year BW.

:thumbsup:

[miners26]

good luck with the card


don't really think Pitt will be looking ahead, Iowa is a pretty big game for the program

[bigwinnner8]

LK, I think LA Tech MIGHT be able to score with Houston, but nobody can stop them. That game would be fun to watch, should be a basketball score.

Miner, its more about Iowa's success after a loss, at home, and Iowa's big ole country fed boys are a match up problem for Pitt.



I'm Locking in Boise right now, the line won't get any better and I really like this game. Boise needs to beat the hell out of every seemingly decent team they play, and Toledo getting some play by giving OSU a scare plays right into that. OSU made too many mistakes that Boise won't.

Boise State -20 (440/400)


Couple games with significant movement:
Miss St +3 (now +3.5 -115)
Tennessee +10 (now +9.5)
Louisville +7 (now +6)

[ginchy]

Agree on boise and Iowa

[ginchy]

Any thoughts on west virg Nebraska and USC

[bigwinnner8]

MSU +4.5 (330/300)
MSU under 49 + MSU +4.5 Parlay (200/515)

^^^ I hit the wrong button on that one, wanted the under by itself, but that's what I got.

Ginchy, I'd take Nebraska out of those three, Washington is trending upwards, but Nebraska's D will be too much for them. I think WV wins, but the line is dropping and EVERYONE seems to like them and that scares me. No opinion on USC, other then I hate them and have no read on Syracuse at all.

And I'm on Boise tomorrow, I'll put my saturday plays in a new thread, too much in here.

[ginchy]

I like boise thinking Toledo will bounce