Nattys Playoff thread...

[NattyBumpo]

Houston -3

My straight power rating for this game makes Houston a 3 pt fav. No value there but lets dig a little deeper.

One thing to consider is how the Texans have done since Yates has taken over...2 wins and 1 loss over 3 playoff tms (Atlanta, Tennessee and Cincy). Although they lost thier last three games I can kinda forgive these (well... almost) as typical let downs for a tm that had locked up the division. Although, they still had plenty to play for. Anyway there's a lot to take away from the tms play in areas that dont have a lot to do with the QB. Houston still has one of the better defenses in the NFL. In this match up the Texans also do a better job of controlling the line of scrimmage.
The more illuminating thing for me is how each tm has fared against common opposition and tms that finished above .500. With Yates, the Texans are 2-1 against playoff tms. While Cincy is 1-6 on the season against tms that finished above .500 on the season. Wow! Common opponants were Tenn, Pitt, and Baltimore w/one game against each other in Cincy. Lets compare the defense: Cincys' defense allowed an average of 25 pts and 339 yrds while Houston allowed 17.6 pts and 298 yrds. This is against above .500 tms that are in the playoffs. Looking at the Texans 1 pt win in Cincinnatti makes it seem like a close match up... well it shouldn't have been so close. Houston out rushed Cincy by 43 yrds and out passed them by 84 yrds. The equalizer being a -2 turnover ratio for the Texans in this game.
When I make some adjustments based on how well each team has played vs winning teams I have now have Houston as a 6.5 pt favorite. With statistical leads (against winning tms) in rushing, passing and defense.
Win or lose, I'm confident this is the right side to be on. Of course ... lol, I always think that, and havn't fared too well lately. Just an honest disclaimer :scratch:.

Maybe the line goes down... but Ill post this now for all to consider.

Another note to consider for the playoffs and Super Bowl:
The public bets a lot of money line action on dogs. Keep an eye out for great value on playing the favorites on the money line. Especially right before game time. They are typically a lot lower in the playoffs and especially the Super Bowl due to all the heavy ml underdog action. It may seem tough to lay juice on a favorite, but depending on how the lines and ml's move you will probably be able to buy pts at a pretty gd relative value. However, the sharps and bks are certainly wise to this, and might thwart this a bit early on in the playoffs. But due to the high volume in the Super Bowl there is always value playing the favorite (assuming they win of course) on the money line. Never, in my humble opinion, foresake the pts on the dog unless you jump on it very early before the ml value is lost.

All that being said... I think...

Texans -3 vs Bengals ... is a very good play. :thumbsup:

[bigwinnner8]

Nice writeup natty, cinncy has had problems putting up points all year and I don't know if a team that young is ready for the big stage (kinda the same reason I think my Lions are going to get slaughtered). Is Yates a sure thing in this game? We need to get DR in here with his thoughts as he is a big time Texans fan.

[NattyBumpo]

Thanks BW.
Im assuming Yates starts. Either way I feel this game is decided on the ground. Cant really predict special tms and turnover variables which can always (and often do) spoil a solid pick. I just have to go with what seems predictable and roll the dice assuming the odds are in my favor. Since both QBs are in the playoffs for the first time I really like the rushing stats on offense and defense that favor Houston in the tough matchups they have both faced.

[NattyBumpo]

Signigicant money line movement on Texans from -150 to +160 or more. I must assume these are not blue collar wagers. Expect the line moves to -3.5 sometime this evening. Assuming the touts release a play on Houston. Just a guess fwiw.

[NattyBumpo]

1-0 in playoffs now. Fwiw...(not much) lol.

[NattyBumpo]

NYG/GB over 52

Getting this asap... I dont think a write up is necessary. Pretty much a no brainer.

Oops...cant believe I just opened that door. :p

[NattyBumpo]

Not a big believer in teasers, especially in college sports. But I will dabble in NFL teasers with the right situations occasionally. I think this one has a lot of merit. 6 pt 2tm teaser (-120)

Baltimore -1.5 vs Houston
Green Bay -1.5 vs New York

Love the home field advantage and the week off. Love crossing the 2 key #s of 7 and 3. Love the short week to prepare a game plan, recover physically and the travel disadvantage for both visiting teams. Love the fact that the favorites are both the smarter teams and less prone to penalty and mental mistakes. Love the fact that I probably cant have a back door cover screw me in the Green Bay game. Most importantly, I love the fact that both favorites have proven the ability to step up and manhandle winning teams. GB is 5-0 vs teams that are + .500 and Baltimore is 6-1 vs + .500 teams. A bonus point in the Baltimore game would be the fact that Baltimore beat Houston by 15 points ... with Shaub at the helm for Houston and a -2 turnover ratio for the Ravens. I think Baltimore has the best chance to cover the -7.5, but the hook and the fact that I have this game lined at -7 doesn't make this an attractive straight bet.


Love this teaser...

[NattyBumpo]

I think I made a good bet with my teaser. However, shortly after posting the writeup I realized what an incredibly stupid blunder I made. I will confess and explain in case anyone else is considering the same play and lives in Nevada. Or might learn from my mistake and benefit in the future.

First of all, I was too much of a cheapskate to lay the extra juice on a 6.5 pt teaser to bring both sides to -1. I can lose by a half point on one of these legs and that would suck, but at the time I'm thinking they're good bets at even -2.5. Maybe so, but the real blunder is this.... In Nevada, if one leg of a teaser ends in a tie, and any other part of the proposition is a loser... the whole ticket is a refund. I'm not sure how it works in other states where sports betting might be legal, but I've been told offshore books don't do this. Even if one leg of the teaser loses, I'd still get a refund in the case of a push in the second leg of the teaser. This never crossed my mind, and I want to just flush my head down the toilet after realizing what I have done. Making a 6.5 pt teaser that can either be a refund in case of a 1 pt win by either team and the other leg losing, and has no chance of losing by a half pt suddenly gives the extra juice a lot more value.

I blame the fact that I rarely play teasers for this lapse of common sense... and that maybe I'm just a dumbass that didn't thoroughly consider everything before placing a wager. Live and learn... I guess. Hopefully I don't have to suffer for this.

[Louie]

Quality posts Natty....Was just telling another member that your posts have been some of the best I've seen from a newer member. You're always providing solid anylsis and good information with your plays and posts. Truly becoming an assett to this board.

You've gotten two reputation notches faster then anyone who's ever been on this forum.

:twothumbsup:

[NattyBumpo]

I really appreciate that Louie. I didn't intend to really do a lot of writing here when I first joined. After gaining an understanding and appreciation for how special I think this forum is I decided to put in some more effort in contributing.

LOL.... its probably the first time someone got a reputation notch in a time period where more losers than winners have been posted... but I understand the information can sometimes be helpful if the picks don't always come as one would wish. Maybe that will change. But I will keep giving the "fair warnings" as a disclaimer for those who might see something that sounds good and be unaware.

I really feel like you've got a special board w/some awesome people posting picks. I'm happy to be here.

[Louie]

I really appreciate that Louie. I didn't intend to really do a lot of writing here when I first joined. After gaining an understanding and appreciation for how special I think this forum is I decided to put in some more effort in contributing. .Appreciate that!

[NattyBumpo]

Eating humble pie on my opinion about the Giants. But I get a side of ice cream with a profitable day as I cashed the over for a much larger wager. Anyway its the win/loss record that counts here.

GB was as tight as a drum. Been a long time since I seen them shoot themselves in the foot so badly and so many times in one game. Congrats and kudos to the Giants for a great effort.

1-1 this weekend. 2-1 in the playoffs so far. The losing teaser wasn't a big play so I'm still happy so far.

[NattyBumpo]

I just wrote a bad ass write up on this game. So when I submitted it, I had to log in and somehow the fuckin thing got ate up into cyberspace. I'm sooooo pissed, I could shit my pants right now. Anyway... here's the play. Maybe Ill write it again when I calm down and get done with the other shit I should'a been doing in the first place.

304 - San Fransisco -2.5 vs NY Giants

[NattyBumpo]

I was gonna get some Frisco to win it all at 7/2. But by the time I got off work and stopped by "Ye Ole Sport Book" I found the odds had quickly diminished. Instead of looking elsewhere I noticed the ML on Frisco was down to -130. I mentioned good ML lines on favorites in the playoffs and especially the Super Bowl earlier in this thread. Here is a prime example. I will be shocked if anyone can cite a time during the regular season that -130 was offered on a 2.5 pt favorite. I feel like I found rib eye steak for 3$ a pound.
I held back a big play initially on SF just because I thought this might happen. I'm doubling up here on the ML now. I'm afraid to wait. If it just gets better... oh well, this is still a good deal.

[NattyBumpo]

2-2 in Postseason.

No regrets losing the Niner bet. Regret not cashing and going to 3-1 of course...but the game itself was still a good play that didn't pan out for us. Basically think we wouldve won but for the turnover on the punt in the fourth quarter. Who knows what mightve happened without the second turnover in ot.

Think whatever side you played... You made a good play. One side just cashed, nothing else to second guess.

As much as Ive negated the Giants in this thread, I cant continue to do so anymore. Im sad that I wont be able to see the Niners in the Super Bowl, but Im pretty sure Ill be taking points and playing the Giants in "The Big Game".

Ill probably decide to write a rant on why I put "The Big Game" in quotation at some point. But for now... Ill just lick my wound.

Peace.:p

[NattyBumpo]

I'm not as confident that Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning can take down Bill Belichick and Tom Brady as I was when I bet the 49rs to beat the Giants (ha..maybe thats a good thing).... but Im at .500 in the playoffs. If I don't take a side in this game... what the hell did I even bother for. It would be different if I was up a million units and just decided to have some fun betting a few props and a two team parlay on the dog and the under for entertainment. But that's not the case. I either will make a profit in the playoffs, or I will lose.

NY Giants +3 vs the New England Patsy's (bad karma ???.... baloney!!!)


I cant help but think the total is inflated by the book to anticipate public perception. It usually is, in the biggest handle of the season, knowing the public is more inclined to play over. This is where we can take advantage of the books main objective... take equal money on both sides of the proposition and make a hefty commission on the vig.
I also think that if the Giants are to win, or even make it very close... they will do it by limiting the Patriot offense. And one way to do that, besides having a good defensive game plan (two weeks to do so is helpful), is by running, picking away at the Patriot defense, staying in bounds and chewing the clock. Being that red zone offense is much more difficult than quick long yardage home runs, I can envision the Giants ending a few long, time consuming drives with field goals. I am also playing...

NYG/New England under 55

:goodluck: Good luck to all who share my opinion and play the same as me.

[BigWinDaddy]

Thanks for the write-up. I think you may have played the under too early. I agree that the public will most likely pound the over, given Brady is in the drivers seat, but wouldn't you think that being the case, the line will move upwards throughout the next couple of weeks? I see that line hitting 57ish in the next 5-7 days.


I'm not as confident that Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning can take down Bill Belichick and Tom Brady as I was when I bet the 49rs to beat the Giants (ha..maybe thats a good thing).... but Im at .500 in the playoffs. If I don't take a side in this game... what the hell did I even bother for. It would be different if I was up a million units and just decided to have some fun betting a few props and a two team parlay on the dog and they under for entertainment. But that's not the case. I either will make a profit in the playoffs, or I will lose.

NY Giants +3 vs the New England Patsy's (bad karma ???.... baloney!!!)


I cant help but think the total is inflated by the book to anticipate public perception. It usually is, in the biggest handle of the season, knowing the public is more inclined to play over. This is where we can take advantage of the books main objective... take equal money on both sides of the proposition and make a hefty commission on the vig.
I also think that if the Giants are to win, or even make it very close... they will do it by limiting the Patriot offense. And one way to do that, besides having a good defensive game plan (two weeks to do so is helpful), is by running, picking away at the Patriot defense, staying in bounds and chewing the clock. Being that red zone offense is much more difficult than quick long yardage home runs, I can envision the Giants ending a few long, time consuming drives with field goals. I am also playing...

NYG/New England under 55

:goodluck: Good luck to all who share my opinion and play the same as me.

[NattyBumpo]

Thanks for the write-up. I think you may have played the under too early. I agree that the public will most likely pound the over, given Brady is in the drivers seat, but wouldn't you think that being the case, the line will move upwards throughout the next couple of weeks? I see that line hitting 57ish in the next 5-7 days.

I have a feeling you are probably right BW. I saw an opening line of 56 at the book I usually go to. It was 55 the next day. I figured the sharps were gonna nip this fucker down all week long before the public started in. This line move shit is definitely an Achilles heel for me. I have occasionally lost a bet because of it. Not very often, but when it burns, it burns bad.
I told myself (like I always do) if it goes up to 56.5 or more before the game, I will make another play. As for now, I will live with the posted play for this playoff thread.

[NattyBumpo]

4-2 postseason.

Not a huge profit as I played the side and total small in the SuperBowl. But fun AND I get to spend the profit on a nice dinner date w/my wife. Her reward for putting up with my ranting at the TV from time to time...LOL.

[Louie]

Nice...Glad you were on boht the Giants and the Under! Nicely Done!