NattyBumpo
02-09-2012, 05:39 PM
(17-18) Sun Belt (6-5) Mt West (4-7) Ivy League
I'm admitting it.... I feel a bit lost at sea in the Ivy League so far. There's a lot of mixed results.
Even the Undefeated Harvard team seems hard to figure out against the spread (2-4 ats) and in totals. It's easy to just assume they are an under team but (at 2-4 o/u) even that doesn't seem to be reliable.
I also think I've probably been trying to read between the lines too much with the emotional and logistical aspects of this conference, now that I've learned a bit more about how things work in the Ivy League. Perhaps the old adage that too much information is sometimes a bad thing. Who knows.... they might become more crucial as the season wears on.
Anyway, I'm forging ahead. Just keep in mind my confidence is shaky and I'm playing this conference with small wagers 'til I really feel like I have a game squarely in the cross hairs.
875 - Brown +11 @ Columbia
The first thing I've concluded, when and before I started my Ivy League journey, is that laying double digits is usually very hazardous and ill advised. I've tried to take advantage once when I bet Brown vs Princeton last week. Unfortunately it was the wrong spot. Brown has covered the OTHER two times (+13 @ Yale and +16 vs Harvard) they've been a double digit dog..... go figure. So 2-1 ats against 3 teams that are considered in the upper tiers of the Ivy League is a pretty good start. I'd have to say Columbia falls somewhere in the middle of the pack. Hard to say right now if their the best of the worst or the worst of the best. I do know that Columbia has zero wins by a convincing margin. Their best scoring performance in conference play is 64 in a 2 pt win at Dartmouth. They seem to play better against the top teams. They face Yale next so perhaps they are most focused on the second game of this home series. Keep in mind that when Yale travels to Columbia, they will do so with a 4 to 4.5 hour bus ride if the traffic and weather don't make it longer. Yale will be hoping to sweep and stay in championship contention if they beat Cornell. If they lose it will be a long sad drive indeed. I'll look to play Columbia on Saturday if the point spread value is there. We shall see...
880 - Harvard/Penn over 121.5
Penn has shown the ability to shoot lights out at home so far. They have also shown some shaky defense on the perimeter and real question marks about defending the post as well.
These teams went over this total 3 times in regulation last year (with one overtime result). I'm pretty sure Penn can score 60 here. Don't think they hold Harvard under 60 either. That leaves 1.5 points.... but somebody has to win. It would be really tough luck to miss this over by a half point...LOL (for tempting the gods).
884 - Yale/Cornell under 132.5
Yale has struggled mightily to muster any consistent offense in the Ivy League. Looked like they would be a team to average in the 70's when you looked at the pre conference results. But these Ivy teams know each other well. And perhaps the change of pace and facing familiar foes has put their offense into a slump. They are getting it done with defense in the meantime. And even though these two are listed in the fast pace side of the tempo categories, only once has a game total in conference play gone over this total for either team.... Yale 73-Brown 60 on January 21st in the second game facing each other for the second time in one week. Yale doesn't shoot a ton of three's and not a great percentage when they do, don't expect much in this one because Cornell has defended the three pretty good overall. Cornell is not too efficient for a fast paced team. Even worse from 3 pt land. Maybe they put up a lot of shots here. Even so, they seem to miss a lot.
I'm admitting it.... I feel a bit lost at sea in the Ivy League so far. There's a lot of mixed results.
Even the Undefeated Harvard team seems hard to figure out against the spread (2-4 ats) and in totals. It's easy to just assume they are an under team but (at 2-4 o/u) even that doesn't seem to be reliable.
I also think I've probably been trying to read between the lines too much with the emotional and logistical aspects of this conference, now that I've learned a bit more about how things work in the Ivy League. Perhaps the old adage that too much information is sometimes a bad thing. Who knows.... they might become more crucial as the season wears on.
Anyway, I'm forging ahead. Just keep in mind my confidence is shaky and I'm playing this conference with small wagers 'til I really feel like I have a game squarely in the cross hairs.
875 - Brown +11 @ Columbia
The first thing I've concluded, when and before I started my Ivy League journey, is that laying double digits is usually very hazardous and ill advised. I've tried to take advantage once when I bet Brown vs Princeton last week. Unfortunately it was the wrong spot. Brown has covered the OTHER two times (+13 @ Yale and +16 vs Harvard) they've been a double digit dog..... go figure. So 2-1 ats against 3 teams that are considered in the upper tiers of the Ivy League is a pretty good start. I'd have to say Columbia falls somewhere in the middle of the pack. Hard to say right now if their the best of the worst or the worst of the best. I do know that Columbia has zero wins by a convincing margin. Their best scoring performance in conference play is 64 in a 2 pt win at Dartmouth. They seem to play better against the top teams. They face Yale next so perhaps they are most focused on the second game of this home series. Keep in mind that when Yale travels to Columbia, they will do so with a 4 to 4.5 hour bus ride if the traffic and weather don't make it longer. Yale will be hoping to sweep and stay in championship contention if they beat Cornell. If they lose it will be a long sad drive indeed. I'll look to play Columbia on Saturday if the point spread value is there. We shall see...
880 - Harvard/Penn over 121.5
Penn has shown the ability to shoot lights out at home so far. They have also shown some shaky defense on the perimeter and real question marks about defending the post as well.
These teams went over this total 3 times in regulation last year (with one overtime result). I'm pretty sure Penn can score 60 here. Don't think they hold Harvard under 60 either. That leaves 1.5 points.... but somebody has to win. It would be really tough luck to miss this over by a half point...LOL (for tempting the gods).
884 - Yale/Cornell under 132.5
Yale has struggled mightily to muster any consistent offense in the Ivy League. Looked like they would be a team to average in the 70's when you looked at the pre conference results. But these Ivy teams know each other well. And perhaps the change of pace and facing familiar foes has put their offense into a slump. They are getting it done with defense in the meantime. And even though these two are listed in the fast pace side of the tempo categories, only once has a game total in conference play gone over this total for either team.... Yale 73-Brown 60 on January 21st in the second game facing each other for the second time in one week. Yale doesn't shoot a ton of three's and not a great percentage when they do, don't expect much in this one because Cornell has defended the three pretty good overall. Cornell is not too efficient for a fast paced team. Even worse from 3 pt land. Maybe they put up a lot of shots here. Even so, they seem to miss a lot.