Taking a shot at the Big 10 Sunday morning...

[NattyBumpo]

Rough week for Bumpo.... shit, rough season altogether to be perfectly honest.

Been doing OK when I cherry pick off the board and the occasional pick outside my three conferences that I've focused on. So lets try this for tomorrow morning.

816 - Michigan -5 (-120) vs Illinois

Seeing some dramatic home/road splits for these two teams. I have always felt Illinois is kind of a dumb/choke type team. I like the style of Michigan and their dedication to defensive minded play. I also like the fact that it's an early start time. Always leery of bad road teams having to get up and ready for a tough game when they have to awaken and check out before noon. Much better free throw shooting,ball handling and perimeter defense for Michigan. Illinois only advantage may be on the boards (maybe not a game where they matchup well on paper.... but they don't play on paper do they?). But Michigan has handled some some tough buggers at home. I don't think Illinois is really that tough of a bugger. Do you?

Have only seen a couple of games on TV in pre conference with these two, so I'm not an expert on these teams.... for better or for worse my info gathering (and not a whole hell of a lot of that) tells me Michigan at home is the better team, 5 points doesn't seem too steep here. I think that should be what you give Michigan for home court here... maybe more.

Bring on the thoughts... admittedly, mine are not from much genuine expertise. I know most of you guys have followed these teams more than myself. But the bet is made. I kind of like it.

[Louie]

I know most of you guys have followed these teams more than myself.. BW is the guy to ask about Michigan and the Big 10. He's a diehard...

[Louie]

Hope You're Feeling Better too....

[NattyBumpo]

Thanks Louie. Feeling better.

[bigwinnner8]

Yeeep, good number on Michigan today. They're a much better team at home. Hopefully their 3 pointers are falling today (they ALWAYS shoot a lot of them), I'm on them as well.

[NattyBumpo]

Oh what a relief....it is!

(and I'm not talking just gas...feels more like 3 days of constipation).

[Oilfield Max]

Great call! I watched the whole game and was really impressed with Michigan... and Michigan State yesterday..... Must be something in the water.

[Louie]

:TFTW:

Thanks for the winner on Mich Nats!!

:youtheman:

I now you love Ivy ball (as you love the passion and you appreciate the game for what it is). You've made it clear that you love some Sun Belt action where players give it their all and don't have NBA caliber players on the floor very much. I respect that man...I really do.

But, I want to throw an idea at you and make a suggestion.

Do me a BIG favor Bumps, will ya? If only for just a few weeks or so, mix up it up a bit. Sgake the conferences you handicap a little.....PRETTY PLLLEASE...

Start capping another major conference or two (or even one major conf. bigger and one mid major conf that are on national TV more often).

I ask this of you because I know you can kill it in some of the other conferences...

Why do I think this is the case?

First, because you have the ability to analyize the games. You also know how to look at line movements and sake-ups and see where the edge is coming from. However, watching the games on TV frequently and seeing these (higher caliber suqads) play in recent games helps a lot and will give you a much bigger edge. You have the ability to CAP. Use that ability while watching some of the big conferences o help you analyze them.

I also think external factors effect smaller conferences like the IVY a lot more as well....the reasons are due to a lot of the same reasons you posted about the Ivy recently....academics play a big role and players are not always 100% focused on the game (especially as 11-15 point dogs).

Just some snacks for thought that I think you may want the chew on...You got the skills...I know you do it...You're writeups convince me (and many others) for betting teams that I PERSONALLY haven't seen play.

I am not saying to stop following the ball you like to watch and cap.

But if you can point out some teams and posts some writeups on some games that you think are undervalued (or over-rated)....but are also teams that a lot of us have seen....you can not only get added input from us, especially from cappers who follow big conference teams like Michigan (such as BW), Villanova (me), BuckeyeNut (Ohio State), big ten (bpd), and more.

Give some bigger conferences a shot for a while and see how you do.

Anyway...once again....Great hit on Michigan...I should have hit this one harder...

I just want to give you something to think about.....I know giving good cappers something to think about only results in productivity.

:yourock:

[NattyBumpo]

I love the suggestions and thanks for the compliments. Its funny Louie, some of what you mentioned about playing and posting other stuff has been on my mind since Friday. That's kind of what made me get off my ass and cap that Michigan game last night.

I thought I'd try not spreading myself thin and cap some stuff not a lot of people pay much attention to. Of course the experiment is not going too well.

I always have enjoyed capping the smaller conferences. But I think focusing on the Sun Belt and Ivy League has given me the false impression that I can have success betting most of the games I think I have some extra insights on.... big mistake. I can still do it. But I need to cherry pick more. Be much more selective. And like you say... get out and try other games and let the ones in the conferences I've really been following just sort of come to me instead of forcing plays.

In fact... I've been thinking about a game for tomorrow that has been gnawing at me all day. Im gonna look at a few more things and post a thread. Give me about 30 more minutes... maybe an hour.