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My Baseball Betting Systems & Strategies in 2009
Posted 04-28-2009 at 04:40 AM by Louie
Tags baseball betting, baseball betting system, baseball picks, betting systems, handicapping systems, mlb baseball, system
Some Additional Notes on My Baseball Betting Systems & Strategies This Season
I wanted to create a new post that has a little bit more handicapping information and insightful material then ‘Denise Richards’ Funbags’. So, I decided to discuss my baseball betting systems and strategies that I will be playing this season.
For those of you who follow the board, you probably know that I am tracking a new home-dog system for the 2009 baseball season. Opening a new weekly ‘biggest home-dog system’ thread that keeps a record of how the biggest home-dog on the board each day (based on the opening number) does throughout the year. Check the system thread for more info.
I will continue to monitor the overall record and daily picks in a new thread each week. If this baseball betting system produces a considerable profit this year, next season I will play every ‘biggest home-dog’ on the board each day.
Along with just testing this new system, I'm going to take some calculated risk. I am also going to personally play the system on sort of a HOT/COLD basis. Whenever this system produces a winner, I am personally going to put the next day's play on my own card for 1-unit and keep betting the system plays for 1-unit until it loses again. When it loses, I will wait for another winner before getting back on. Once it wins again, I will get back on….Then, when it loses again…lol…(just kidding…I think you get the idea)
Now, I can actually play my system a little bit. I won't miss any big hot streaks and won't feel like crap for missing out because of the test. Also, the new system can’t bury me either if it gets ice cold as I won’t be on board for any losing streaks, nor will I be chasing any losses.
If the ‘biggest home-dog system’ is coming off a win and the biggest home-dog on that day is of +150 or more, I will play 2-units (as I planned on playing all the home-dogs of +150 or more this year anyway).
Perfect Example Today:
Since the Giants are +150, I will be playing them for 1-unit no matter what. Since the home-dog system is coming off a win and the Giants are the system play, I will play it for another unit..2-unit play today...
I actually planned on playing all the home-dogs of +150 or more for 2-units this year. But I think it's time for a change as last year I had my first bad season of baseball betting. This might be the very change that my big home-dog plays need. It seems like the books have released a lot less big home-dogs of +150 or more the last few years. It also seems that the sportsbooks are using that +150 or more as a benchmark. I have noticed a lot of books posting -165 for road favorites (keeping the home-dog at +145 for 20 cent lines). So, a little alteration might do the trick. This strategy will force me to get on a few more home-dogs and it will only force me to play 2-unit +150 (or more) home-dogs if they are hot.
On top of my home-dog play for the season (which requires a lot of tracking), the other baseball system that I will be playing in 2009 is this;
Play ON a pitcher coming off three straight (charged) losses vs. an opposing pitcher coming off a win.
The theory here is that rarely do pitchers win back to back games and most pitchers that won their last game are due for a loss. Also, 0-3 pitchers are usually big underdogs (remember: underdogs in baseball are a good thing) and they are always due for a win. So, a pitcher that is (probably) due for a loss is up against a pitcher (definitely) due for a win. Along with this, you will likely get an inflated underdog line, which makes it a good value. I have had a lot of success with this system and can't wait to see how it does this year. I will be playing 2-units on this system as well. If this system fits the
“biggest home-dog system” and the “+150 or more home-dog system”, I will be breaking out my big 4-unit play...
I hope I didn’t confuse anyone. But, the experienced handicappers in here get the idea.
Always remember; as long as there are big home underdogs that pay-off more then you bet, there is always ways to manipulate the books; that is as long as the sports betting public stays in love with the big favorites. This is why I love the bases. If you keep monitoring and tracking the underdog plays and keep developing systems that have good theory and usually produce solid dogs, you can generate lots of winning seasons of baseball picks.
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Best of Luck!
Your Forum Admin & Friend,
Louie
Total Comments 2
Comments
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Louie, I like the big home dog theory and the 3 loss pitches thing intrigues me. I will be on the dogs with u for sure. Nothing beyyer than to hit 45% of your games and make money. Thats why baseball is great.Posted 04-28-2009 at 12:33 PM by controlfade 
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Indeed CF....You look at a lot of the other forums and guys are using systems that generating nothing bt favorites. I see a lot of systems out there that chase losses by betting more big favorites (I've even tested a few) and they just end up getting buried.Posted 04-28-2009 at 05:20 PM by Louie
