Chris Ado's Santa Anita Picks

[bpd67]

These are not my plays but I've been following him along lately. Hit two out of races yesterday and had a great day a few days ago, he plays against favs though. GL if you play.


Today’s Action from Santa Anita: I will highlight and play races 4, 5, 7,
and 9. In addition, I will put together $48 into the Pick 4 (Races 6-9)
Race 4: Claiming $20,000 to $18,000, 6 Furlongs, Three year olds
CANTBEATWHATUCANTC (#3, 15-1) is actually my third preference in this race
but he is the best gamble in the field and if one could ignore his two
efforts over the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park then this grand son of
Mr.
Prospector has run races that make this Washington bred a perfect fit at
this class level. His two victories at Emerald Downs and Portland Meadows
respectively have each earned Beyer Speed Figures that are either on par
or above it for this class level and has used his excellent early speed en
route to four wins from twelve starts and his previous two wins on a fast
main track were accomplished by a combined thirteen lengths. He was able
to use his excellent early speed to clear his field on September 14 at
Emerald Downs where he won by three and a quarter lengths as the post time
favorite on an uncontested lead earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 74 which
is par (Beyer par 75) and defeating a subsequent next time out winner in
the process. He returned at the same class level and shorten up to five
and a half furlongs in his next start and showed a lot of gameness
pressing the winner Tail Kicker through early fractions of 21.60 and 44.40
for the first half mile, appeared finished as he dropped back approaching
mid stretch, but gamely came on again through deep stretch to miss by a
neck as the odds on beaten favorite. He returned in a overnight stakes
stretching out to one mile on October 22 with the blinkers coming off and
parlayed that into a visually impressive nine and three quarter length
victory at odds of 10-1 earning an above par Beyer Speed Figure of 79 and
he had to run hard early, middle, and late en route to this above average
victory. He sat a good pace prompting trip pressing the 4-5 post time
favorite Reno Ringo through fractions of 23.69 and 47.79 seconds for the
first half mile, dispose of that rival into the far turn, opened up a
commanding lead, and never looked back as the early pace of the race was
so taxing that his pace rival weakened to finish fourth beaten 19-¼
lengths. His victory was flattered when third place finisher, Brave
Hearted, returned to win. He shipped to Southern California for the first
time on November 22 and showed his excellent speed to duel for the lead,
opened up daylight into the far turn, and was empty at the top of the
stretch to finish fifth. Claimed by high percentage conditioner Jeff
Mullins, he made his next start around one turn on December 2 but lost all
chance when he steadied after the start, was taken under a strong hold
from rider Garrett Gomez to race four wide down the backstretch in mid
pack and four wide through the far turn and came up empty once again in a
weak effort. Instead of dropping this horse drastically, he returns him to
the same class level with three more works with the blinkers being added
back on a piece of equipment was on him for his three previous victories
prior to his last start. He gets a comfortably weight break with good
apprentice rider William Antongrgi III and without a win since November 15
gets even more weight as he should be in the mix for the lead from every
start at odds that surely will compensate for the fact that he was beaten
18 and 10-½ lengths respectively in his last two starts.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (3) CANTBEATWHATUCANTC to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 8-1 or
better) Main Exacta: 3-5, 3-8, and 3-9.
Small reverse for each.

Race 5: Starter Allowance, 7 Furlongs, Three year olds and upward LANG
FIELD (#5, 10-1) had not hit the board in three consecutive starts prior
to his victory on July 4 where he was beaten by a combined margin of
forty-three and three quarter lengths in three starts over the Poly Track
at Turf Way Park, Keeneland, and Churchill Downs respectively. However,
ever since blinkers were added to this Langfuhr gelding back on his
graduation victory on Independence Day at Churchill Downs he has improve
leaps and bounds and his two starts on the main track were excellent from
a visual stand point. He added blinkers for the first time on July 4 and
showed excellent early speed for the first time in three and half months
to duel with Gin and Tea through a very quick opening quarter in 22.71
seconds. He disposed of that pace rival after the first half mile only to
be engaged by the post time favorite Courage Warrior as those two locked
up into a speed duel through a half mile in 45.74 seconds and six furlongs
in 1:10.10 seconds as those two were as much as seven lengths in front of
their nearest pursuer as the field reached the top of the stretch where
this gelding finally disposed of the favorite at mid stretch and drew away
nicely to win by three and a quarter lengths with his two pace rivals
weakening to finish third beaten 5-½ lengths and fifth beaten 19-¼ lengths
in the process. He switched to the turf for the first time in his first
try versus winners and nearly scored a huge upset at odds of 32-1 only to
be run down in deep stretch by the post time favorite Ar Buckle Bandit who
would returned to win his next start. Obviously this gray gelding was
found his best form and he wisely was given some time off to recover from
his two tough efforts when he finally returned on October 27 at Keeneland
over their Poly Track and he ran a strong race to be fourth losing by only
length and three quarters as he was the best of the early speed winning
the battle for the lead only to lose the war over a main track that was
not kind to his early speed on that particular occasion or meet. He showed
good early speed to battle for the lead with Kalium through the first
quarter of a mile and never was able to get a breather down the
backstretch as he received more pace pressure from long shots Rag Well and
Mr. Unkindo. He finally was able to dispose of all three factors as they
weakened from their earlier efforts to finish eighth, ninth, and tenth
with Lang Field taking over the lead into the top of the stretch, remained
gamely to the very end only tiring inside the final sixteenth of a mile.
This was a superb effort considering the first three place finishers
rallied from ninth, eighth, and seventh after the first half mile and he
showed speed versus a main track favoring outside stalkers and closers
making his effort look even better. He has been freshened once again and
returns for high percentage conditioner Art Sherman who has won 30% of his
new acquisitions in the past year and he should have plenty of “bottom”
as he cuts back from three consecutive route efforts into this seven
furlong one turn event. Shippers from Churchill Downs and Keeneland had a
big meet at Hollywood Park and remain on fire as Latent Heat ($13.20)
shipped in from Keeneland to win the G1 Malibu on opening day and
hopefully this gray or roan can do the same at a price that is too high
compared to my fair odds line.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (5) LANG FIELD to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 7-2 or better) Main
Exactas: 5-2, 5-3, and 5-7.
Small reverse for each.

Race 7: Allowance N2X, 6-½ Furlongs, Fillies and mares, Three and up
CALLMELUCKYLUCY (#1, 5-1) is a filly who has had her share of physical
aliments that have plagued her throughout her eight race career. After one
race as a two year old, she returned from a nine month layoff and after
three races as three year old she returned from more than a year layoff
and now comes into this race off more than a two month layoff. Despite
various breaks in between races, she has shown the ability to run well
with time between starts and she has enough early speed from the inside to
easily clear this field under an aggressive ride from jockey David Cohen.
She returned from more than a year layoff wit ha useful third place finish
rallying from far back to lose by only length and three quarters spotting
valuable conditioning advantage to the winner Yodelladytoo in the process.
That race was strictly used as a prep as she returned only two weeks later
to score her first victory in over a year. Breaking from post position
five in a seven horse field, this Florida bred grand daughter of Mt.
Livermore was part of the early pace battle while three wide in a five
horse battle for the early lead. She continued battling for the lead while
three wide through the far turn, took over the lead approaching mid
stretch, and asserted her superiority over this field to win going away
earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 86 which is seven points lower than par
for this class level (Beyer par 93). She returned next in a over night
stakes at Pomona and never took to the track as she was far, far back
early sitting in eighth more than ten lengths behind the favored gate to
wire winner and very good stakes winning sprinter Selvatica. She came
right back during Oak Tree meeting here at Santa Anita on October 12 and
ran a race that would have won nine out of ten races at this class level
to earn the top last race Beyer Speed Figure of 100 and she had to run
hard early, middle, and late to narrowly lose by only three quarters of a
length as she won the battle only to lose the war in the process. She was
hustled away from the gate to duel for the early lead with Stylish Wildcat
as those two were two and a half lengths and a length clear of the rest of
the field through fast fractions of 21.69 and
44.99 seconds for the first half mile. The early battle for the lead took
its toll on Stylish Wildcat as she tired badly to finish seventh and last
only for this bay filly to stay on gamely through the stretch when
immediately tackled by the perfect trip winner True and True fighting all
the way to the wire to lose by only three quarters of a length in a
winning effort in defeat. She returns from another layoff but she was
second in her first two starts off a freshening and was a useful third off
a year layoff this past summer at Del Mar. Though she has breaks from the
rail, she has shown to overcome that post position in the past as she has
a win and narrow second beaten a neck in two starts where she has drawn
the rail in the past.
She is the quickest early and is strictly the one they all must have to
catch for very good trainer Vladimir Cerin.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (1) CALLMELUCKYLUCY to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 2-1 or better)
Main Exactas: 1-3, 1-5, and 1-7.
Small reverse for each.

Race 9: Maiden Claiming $32,000 to $28,000, 6 Furlongs, Three year olds
EWARTON (#3, 8-1) has shown drastic improvement since returning off a nine
month layoff on November 4 over the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park and is
moving in the right direction after two efforts and should be set for his
best effort in his third race off the layoff as my BEST BET on the
program.
Returning off a nine month layoff and dropping for the lowest level in his
career, he ran into an exceptionally strong highly rated $25,000 Maiden
Claiming field. In that race, he was devoid of any early speed, rallied
outside to past rivals, and passed tired horses to get up for the show
spot while best of the rest earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 74 which is
par for this class level (Beyer par 75). Though the hot early pace allowed
him to get up for third this proved to be no regular maiden claiming field
for $25,000 as the winner, Souvenir Evening, earned a Beyer Speed Figure
of 107 and the validity of that figure was confirmed when the winner
returned to crush a field for California bred Allowance N1X earning a
Beyer Speed Figure of 102 and the runner up, Royal Falcon, broke his
maiden in his next start earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 80 making this a
productive “key” race in the process. He returned next at the same class
level on December 9 and this bay gelding by Sharan ran a huge race earning
an above par Beyer Speed Figure of 78 in the process and this horse went
on my Horses to Watch list after showing good early speed versus a main
track that was not kind to his running style. The Andrew Harris trainee
dueled from between horses with Muscle from his inside and to the outside
Brother Brother down the backstretch through a soft 22.31 second opening
quarter. He shook free of Muscle leaving the backstretch and was
immediately forced to duel inside with Brother Brother through a very
quick second quarter in 22.27 around the far turn, dispose of his pace
rival, was immediately challenged on by the opportunistic closer and could
not quite hold on as he was clearly second best in this above average
effort. Not only were his chances compromised by a very quick second
quarter but also forced to race inside showing speed dueling for the lead
versus a main track favoring outside stalkers and closers and the two pace
rivals he dueled with tired to finish fifth and seventh making his runner
up effort behind opportunistic closer look even better. He shortens up a
full eighth of a mile to six furlongs for low profile trainer Andrew
Harris but is moving confidently up one level in class and the fact he is
ridden by low percentage rider can only help inflate his post time odds as
I strongly believe this California bred can go for the early lead, break
right on top, and never look back as my BEST BET on the program.
Wagering Strategies:
Play the (3) EWARTON to WIN (Minimum fair odds of 3-1 or better) Main
Exactas: 3-2, 3-10, and 3-13.
Small reverse for each.

Santa Anita Race 6 Pick 4
Race 6: (2) Valbenny, (4) Good Mood, (5) Miss Josiey Wales, and (10)
Cosmopolitan Lady Race 7: (1) CALLMELUCKYLUCY, (3) Fletchers Cove, and (7)
Sweet Ambition Race 8: (3) Rhythm Mad, (4) Hendrix, and (5) King’s Drama
Race 9: (2) Golden Royal, (3) EWARTON, and (10) Twice Unbridled
Ticket 1: 2-4-5-10 / 1 / 3-4-5 / 2-3-10 = 4 x 1 x 3 x 3 x $1 = $36
Ticket 2: 2-4-5-10 / 1-3-7 / 3-4-5 / 3 = 4 x 3 x 3 x 1 x $1 = $36
Total Wager: $72

[bpd67]

1 for 4, with a nice 9.60 winner. Hit the exacta in that race as well.