The Debry Facts For The Inexperiened

[Hal01]

I pulled this of another site....I can not vouch for the validity of the numbers, but thought it was interesting. Perhaps our resident specialist, Zorro, can add his thoughts.

1. There have only been two winning favorites since Spectacular Bid won in 1979. Fusaichi Pegasus was the favorite in 2000 and Smarty Jones in 2004. This year's favorite will likely be Bellamy Road.

2. Most Derby winners had posted at least one Beyer Speed Figure (these are found in the Daily Racing Form past performances) of 100 or better in a Derby prep race.

3. With the big fields and big betting pools on Derby day, you can sometimes win just as much on an Exacta as you normally could on a Trifecta, so its a good time to take a shot on a exotic bet - just don't sink all of your money in trying for that big score.

4. Since there are a few horses in the race who are known for being front runners, you might want to look for a horse who can rate, or relax just off the pace and then pass the speed horses late.

5. One famous Derby prep race is the Bluegrass Stakes. Only 2 Bluegrass winners have won the Derby since 1979 ... Spectacular Bid in 1979 and Strike the Gold in 1991. Over that same time frame, 5 Bluegrass also-rans have won the Run for the Roses: Gato Del Sol (1982); Alysheba (1987); Unbridled (1990); Sea Hero (1993) and Thunder Gulch (1995). Bandini won the Blue Grass this year.

6. It is important to figure out which contenders will have the stamina to make the 1 1/4 mile distance. This is the biggest question mark for this race because none of the horses have yet to race that far. Most handicappers attribute the horse’s pedigree and running style as the primary signs of one that will get the “Classic” distance.

7. Give extra consideration to horses who have won or run well at Churchill Downs previously.

8. Horses should have run in at least 3 spring prep races before the Derby to be prepared for the competition. No amount of speed or good looks can make up for a lack of seasoning in the Spring. For a horse to win the Derby, he must have a good base.

9. Horses that are super good as 2-year-olds are usually not competitive by the time Derby comes around. That’s why some people tend to discard the winners of the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile (Wilko).

10. Keep an eye on who the top jockeys chose to ride. A jockey like Gary Stevens can have his pick after winning 3 Derbys. This year he will be riding Noble Causeway.

Other Facts:

• All horses carry the same weight in the Derby.
• 118 colts, 7 geldings and 3 fillies (Winning Colors 1988, Genuine Risk in 1980 and Regret in 1915) have won the Derby.
• 49 post-time favorites have won the Kentucky Derby. 27 post-time favorites placed second, 10 ran third and 41 did not place.
• TOP TWO BIRTHPLACES: Kentucky with 97 winners and Florida with 6 winners.
• POST POSITIONS WITH THE MOST WINS: #1 with 12, #4 with 10 and #5 with 11. Post positions with no wins: #17 and #19. Post positions with only one win: #18 and #20.
• Main starting gate has 14 stalls, the auxilliary gate has stalls for post #15-20
• Prominent Kentucky Derby prep races with the highest number of eventual Derby winners to race in them:
Blue Grass – 11;
Flamingo – 9;
Florida Derby – 10;
Santa Anita Derby – 8;
San Vicente – 6;
Wood Memorial – 11.
• Mint Juleps are pretty nasty tasting, so don't worry if you don't drink one on Saturday

[ZORRO]

Great thread. All very true.
Found it a great "read".

One very true statement is you can make a lot of money on this race.

In fact...the best racing day of the year is Breeders Cup day. You can make a ton of money on that day. Reason is that no horse is entered who is a piece of crap. THEY ALL CAN WIN.
If you're lucky you can catch 80 dollar horses and gigantic exotic pay-offs.

[ZORRO]

Originally posted by ZORRO
Great thread. All very true.
Found it a great "read".

One very true statement is you can make a lot of money on this race.

In fact...the best racing day of the year is Breeders Cup day. You can make a ton of money on that day. Reason is that no horse is entered who is a piece of crap. THEY ALL CAN WIN.
If you're lucky you can catch 80 dollar horses and gigantic exotic pay-offs.

OVER ONE MILLION if you caught the PICK 4.
The exacta and triple also paid a fucking fortune.

All you need is a little luck. As I said here......THIS IS YOUR CHANCE TO MAKE BIG MONEY.

Next shot is the Breeders Cup races....and there you have 8 races and a shot at BIG MONEY!

I kill the Breeders Cup EVERY YEAR. Only thing is......It looks like I may no longer be here for this years races in November.

You're born, you live, you die. That is all there is in this life.
While you're here try to eat the best food, bang as many women as you can, and get a good nights sleep without pain as many years as you can. In the end.....you will leave here as all who came before you have done.

Live it up while you still can.