Tues: Horses

[ZORRO]

Yesterday no horse came close to 5-1.

BUT.....what was very bad about the results was the fact that longshots came in, AND AGAIN, I DIDN'T HAVE THEM.

Again, there are strange things going on nation wide
with these crazy horses coming in.
----------------------------
Today

CALDER

5th 7-10

8th 2
--------------------------

[ZORRO]

Gonna bet these horses, too, but I don't know if they really PASS. These are on dirt.

Delaware

1st 2

3rd 3

6th 9

7th 1

[BigAl]

9.00 winner.

Thanks.

[ZORRO]

Originally posted by BigAl
9.00 winner.

Thanks.

I came on here to post that the first race won for 9 bucks, and now I am very happy that you "ALSO" had it.

Way to go!

Let me say this, I have to wait around a half hour before I can see the chart on the race.
BET YOUR ASS HE PASSED!

[bpd67]

Are you betting online Al? What site, if so. Is there some special software you have to download? Most sites have their own software, don't think I'll be able to download it at work but would like to bet more races.

[BigAl]

Let's you bet right up til post time. youbet.com has the results live, and you can watch the races live.

[bpd67]

so your betting at pinnacle and watching at youbet? Is there software to download, pretty sure there has to be.
Thanks

[ZORRO]

I hate to have to do this but I have had many request from guys who want to know how I do the Passers with Horses, and how I do the Percentages with basketball and football.


I'm truly sorry that I will not give out that data to anyone.

It is not personal. How could it be when I have never met any of you?

You see, what I have accomplished with these sports wasn't easy. I spent many years losing my ass.

Above all, on horses. But I never gave up. Now, I just feel that it is too easy just to pass it on.

I will say one thing that you don't know that will discourage you.
I happen to have, like everybody else on this ball, something I excel in. That is "MATH".

I do the fractions on racing in my head when I do a Form.
Now, you have to believe this part. My wife was in college at 15. She was an honor student. She is the only one who knows how I do the racing form.

She has done it on many races.

GET READY.....READY??????

I DO THE WHOLE FORM IN 4 HOURS........IT TAKES HER A HALF HOUR TO DO ONE FUCKING RACE.

Do you get my meaning? As smart as she is she needs a half hour to do the fractions on just one race.

I take around 2 minutes for one race.

Let me discourage you even further.

This is based on a "comparative" The only guy who I consider equal to me is a man named Beyer. He writes for racing papers. The "BIG" paper, The Daily Racing Form, uses his speed ratings.

He is a millionaire from race betting.
HE KNOWS WHAT I KNOW BUT HAS NEVER PRINTED IT.

Why should he?

Let me go check out the 3rd race coming up at Delaware, and I'll come back and talk about one of the things I'm doing concerning Speed Comparatives.

[bpd67]

I'll admit that I did ask and after asking I started thinking if I was on your end of the question. I must agree with what you said, why should you just giveaway years of work and knowledge to come up with a system that works. It's not really fair to you, kind of a slap in the face really.

I think I speak for most of us on this board when I say we appreciate your hardwork and look forward to your posts and hope you keep posting for many more years.

[BigAl]

pass the test? Bitch ate our lunch!

[BigAl]

How old are you if you don't mind my asking?

[bpd67]

I think he's somewhere around 60 if I remember a post of his from a few weeks back correctly. If not, then I apologize.

[ZORRO]

12 minutes to post the 3 is 4/5 already. Forget it, NO BET!

Let me show you this without the "real" numbers.

Every speed rating is based on the track record.
They divide a "FULL SECOND" in 5 parts.

Lets say we are looking at a 6F race.
The track record is 1:08 flat.
If a horse wins the race in 1:08 flat he has just run a speed rating of.....100.

He equaled the track record so he ran 100. If he had run the race in 1:07:4 he now ran a 101. He beat the track record.
If he ran the race in 1:08:1
He ran a 99.

Do you get that so far?

Each second is divided into 5 parts.
1:08 and 1.....1:08 and 2....
and 3 and 4 and 1:09

Each part of a "second" is one length.
If two horses are together 30 yards from the wire and one wins in 1:08 and the other comes in second in 1:09...the winner pulled away by 5 lengths.....and he did that in just one second.

Look at a clock...try to imagine a horse pulling away by 5 lengths from another horse AND IT ONLY TOOK HIM ONE SECOND TO DO SO.

OK....on the racing form for each race they will post his speed rating in his last race.
They will print it like this.......90-10
86-15.......75-28

Know what the number on the right means?
That tells you what the 9 winners on that day ran. What the average was.
All you do is subtract that number from 100.

So if a horse has a 90-12.....12 from a hundred is 88. The day that horse ran he ran a 90 on an 88 day.
The 9 winners that day won their races in an average 88.
They ran 2.2 seconds off the track record. 88 was their number.

Do you follow so far?

Now the people look at two horses running today and they see this
A horse has a 90-08
B Horse has a 87-15

They believe A is better. he beats B with a 90 against an 87.
Right? WRONG!!!!!!

Those people are, lucky for me, STUPID!

"A" horse ran on a winning day of 8. That means a 92 day.
"B" horses ran on a 15 day. That means 85.

So "A" ran a 90 on a 92 day for a speed comparative of MINUS 2.

"B" HORSE RAN AN 87 ON AN 85 DAY SO HE HAS A COMPARATIVE 0F PLUS 2.

Which is better Plus 2 or Minus 2 ?

Now you may think that you now have the answer, right?
WRONG!

Every single track has a speed that is different from other tracks. AT EVERY SINGLE DISTANCE.

I have every one of these memorized.

What I mean is, and these are NOT the real numbers because this is how I beat the horses, If a horse runs an 88 at 6F at Belmont, he will run a 90 at Monmouth, he will run a 92 at Pimlico,etc!

If he runs a 75 at 1 1/16 at Belmont he will run a 85 at Monmouth and a 95 at Finger Lakes.

If he is a steady Plus runner at Hollywood, lets say +3...He will run a +8 at Phila., a +12 at Finger, etc!

I am able to apply these factors as I do each race without any aids.

My wife, much smarter than me, can not do this. She has tried.

[ZORRO]

I just went to results. As you can see I didn't bet the 3 horse.
That last thread took me a week to write

Big Al.......why the hell did you bet the 3 horse ?
4/5 when I came back on here.
GEE.....at least 2-1....give me something.
50 bucks to get 40 bucks?

Someone asked my age, I will be 69 on July 21st.

Let me say before this bullshit, I was 68 going on 35.

Now I'm 68 going on 98

I'm stil waiting for my daughter to have the baby.

I don't think I mentioned this but they fired my sons partner. He is now doing the 3 hour show each day by himself.

He intends to have guest hosts. He will have the coach's from Georgia and Georgia Tech as guest hosts because the people in Atlanta love college football.

In NY all they know about college is to bet the teams

[bpd67]

Thanks for the breakdown on the speed comparisons, I think I've got that down. I'll have to look it over more when I get home. So I'm guessing that the comparisons are one part of your system somewhere along the line. You don't have to answer, just thinking out loud I guess.

[ZORRO]

Originally posted by bpd67
Thanks for the breakdown on the speed comparisons, I think I've got that down. I'll have to look it over more when I get home. So I'm guessing that the comparisons are one part of your system somewhere along the line. You don't have to answer, just thinking out loud I guess.

I am gonna give you the whole system in a few words.

THE HORSES I HAVE ARE NOT WHO WILL WIN THE RACE, NOBODY CAN DO THAT IN THE WHOLE WORLD, BUT.......WHO WILL BE IN POSITION SO HE "CAN" WIN THE RACE.

That is where the fractions come in at the 3 points of call in a race.

Want the best example of ...WHO ARE THE HORSES I HAVE THAT PASSED..........

I had Afleet Alex in the Derby and the Preakness.
Where was he in both races??
Right there after the last turn, right?

Derby, didn't have it, finished 3rd.
Preakness, had it WON the race.

Was right there in both races wasn't he?

That is all a capper can do.
Why? Anything can happen at the wire.

What I learned is THEY NEVER CAN FIX OR SET UP A RACE at the 3 points of call.
THE RACE WILL ALWAYS,I MEAN ALWAYS,GO AS IT SHOULD.

How it ends nobody knows.
All we can figure out is HOW IT WILL BE RUN.

The other horse that was a Passer was Bellamy Road and where was he at the turn?
Right there, and he didn't quit but he was injured.


The horses I WILL NEVER HAVE ARE THE TWO WHO RAN 1ST AND 2ND IN THE DERBY.
Even if they were 2-5 I WILL NEVER HAVE A HORSE THAT COMES FROM THE PARKING LOT AT THE WIRE TO WIN.

A horse must have the 3 fractions that show he can run and compete with the field he's up against.

Its like the play-offs in Baseball, football, and basketball.
My PASSERS would be the teams that made the play-offs.
Who wins? NOBODY KNOWS TILL ITS OVER.

We already know who the best baseball teams are, right?
They are THE PASSERS.

Not all, but most (like my horses) will get in the play-offs.After that...who knows.

[bpd67]

Originally posted by ZORRO

The horses I WILL NEVER HAVE ARE THE TWO WHO RAN 1ST AND 2ND IN THE DERBY.
Even if they were 2-5 I WILL NEVER HAVE A HORSE THAT COMES FROM THE PARKING LOT AT THE WIRE TO WIN.

What good capper would of had those horses?

Your system narrows down the field to horses that, on paper should be there with a chance to win. Problem is, do you get the odds? As you said early, what's the point in betting a 4/5 horse. Everyone knows that he's got a 99% chance of winning when you see that, picking the 2nd and 3rd for an exacta or tri is where your money is going to be in that race.

You see it alot with your horses where the morning line is one thing and then come post time they are favorites or have crap odds. That's not your fault, you don't look at the odds when you do the picks, well maybe you do but I'm assuming they don't mean a thing till about 1 minute to post.

Thanks for the posts today so far, some good explanation.