A story about how one bad week can kill months worth of hard capping

[CanadianGuy]

I'm making this thread not looking for pitty or "sorry to hear that CG", but I"m going to make this so that hopefully others can learn from this experience that I've had this week. It's about how one bad week can kill your bankroll and take away a couple months of hard work. I'll section it off so you can choose what to read easier.



Brief history about me (figure I midaswell since nobody here really knows anyone anyways):

21 years old and going to school for my business degree. I work a summer job to pay for school and basically make capping my part time job spending probably 20 hours per week on it (sometimes more).

Started off betting through a friends dad's bookie just making small 20 dollar bets during the NFL season in 2003 then last year also made bets through him. Never even knew that online sportbooks existed until I had heard from some guys at my university that they were doing it and they told me how it worked and thats how it all started.

Began betting online last year around week 12 or 13 with a small BR of 100, played extremely agressive and basically had the entire BR in play everyweek and raked in over a grand from that time until the end of the season. Then began looking at NBA totals (as I'm sure some of you know about). Came up with a system, played it, it did really well and basically doubled that again. Then during the NBA playoffs I did really well again (as I'm sure some of you know) making big plays but hitting them.

At the end of it all I came out of it with a few grand. Due to car payments and other money I owed I had to cashout almots everything...which didn't really matter to me.

Started out betting MLB for the first time ever, met people online who taught me alot and also got ahold of some trend places that helped me out even more.....and this is where the real story begins........



How to kill off your bankroll within one week:


Started off betting MLB with very small amounts (also started with a small BR of only a couple hundred). Learned alot about how it worked, how to make money off it, and was doing well. I was consistently hitting 55 to 60% of my plays each week/month and was slowly making a profit, but it was a profit none the less. Built that up to about 900 between that and CFL and then this week hit me.


Started off the month on a normal months run. Started the month off 6-3 up a couple hundred through the first two weeks of August. Things are going as they usually do.

Go 0-2 on Sunday, not a big deal, I go 0-2 sometimes, I'll just rebound from it. The next day, another 0-2 day. "oh boy" I think to myself "better take a few days off things aren't going well". Usually when I take days off I come back and pick up speed again, but this week things were different. Go 0-2 again the next day. As each day passes I'm not betting more than usual to try and "recover losses", I'm just betting the normal unit size that I would normally use....but I'm still losing.

In the back of my mind during this time I'm thinking to myself "this is not good, but how many times can I lose in a row? This can't be happening, not when I have all these trends to back me up". The week continues and I lose another play. I tell myself that I should just pack things up and quit MLB for the year. So that's what I will do, and I will stick to my stronger sport with CFL and I will take a dip into the NFL preseason action for the first time. Well I get my first W yesterday on a NFL preseason play....it looks like things are turning around. But then I lose a CFL play last night in the last 10 seconds of the game. I go to bed mad, but more confused than anything. Surely CFL wouldn't do this to me would it? After such a bad week nothing is working, so what do I do? How can I fix it? I try it one more time today on a smaller play on NFL preseason, and I lose by 3 pts. It seems the losing will never end.


The damage that has been done:

I sit back now and I assess the damage that has been done. A month that started off well, getting my BR all nice and juicy for NFL season again..another year of great winning in a sport I love to cap. But now I sit here at the end of the week, a week I went 1-9 on plays and killed 40% of my BR. I sit here thinking it could have been much worse if I had chased my losses but I'm still sitting here down alot of money and no end in sight. Do I keep playing? Do I wait two weeks until NFL season starts and hope things turn around? We'll see.


What I was thinking the entire time this was happening:


We all know the mindset of a capper can change from day to day, from play to play. So what was I thinking while all this losing was going on? It wasn't so much about getting back to the level of money I had peaked at this month, but getting back to the money I had lost the day before. I had stuck in my mind that surely all my 60% trends couldn't lose this many times in a row. I found myself capping games differently than I had before, and this was a big part of it. I got out of my routine and that changed everything.


How did some of the losses happen:

It's one thing to make bad decisions when capping, as we make choices with the best information that we have and expect to win the majority of our bets, but its another to have last second things happen to make you lose. What am I talking about? Here are a few examples of how things that could have gone good and turned things around for me, went bad and sent it all downhill.


August 15th Toronto +120 against LAA

Jays have many chances to win the game, leading into the 8th but give away a lead to tie the game. Jays load the bases in top 9 with 1 out but don't get any runs out of it, they lose in 12 innings and end up winning the next two games against the Angels.

August 18th Seattle/Minnesota under 9.5

Final score ends up 7-3 for the Twins as its 5-3 going into bottom of the 8th and the Seattle reliever gives up hit after hit after hit. Botched double plays cost me the cover by one run.


August 19th Winnipeg/Ottawa under 54 CFL

Score is 31-17 with 10 seconds left in the game. The game is over, Ottawa is down 14 and they are deep in their own end. They run a play and with no time left it gets picked off by a winnipeg player who runs it back for a TD and that sends it over the total by 1 point. Another loss.



What I want people to get out of my story?


You sit there reading this probably thinking "wow that sucks for CG, but it wont happen to me"....well thats what I thought too. In the past I have a couple losing days, I take time off and I come back and I start winning, but this time the losing just continued. And from all of this I"m learning that as easy as it is for people to think that you can win, its 10 times as easy to lose. I mean you think to yourself that it's not possible to lose this many games in a row, that just based on simple probability you would have to eventually win one game. But you can lose that many in a row, and before you know it you lose so many in a row that you could possibly lose your entire bankroll.


Where am I going from here?


Well we're two weeks away from the NFL season. Always a great time. Luckily I had cut off my MLB bets before things got so bad that I couldn't recover over time, but even with that the CFL has still let me down. I'm going to sit back for the next two weeks, maybe make the occasional CFL pick and hope to build up a little bit before NFL starts up, and most importantly, sit here and hope that this funk I'm in will somehow blow away, because its sort of like Seinfeld, the BO is in my car, and theres no way to get it out.





So thats the story. If you read it all I hope you gained something from it as thats why I posted it. I've learned alot from it and I'm still learning, as it's apparently not over, but when it is, I'm sure I'll look back and think about how I could have handled it differently, but until then I sit back and I gear up for NFL regular season. Surely NFL won't let me down will it?

[Duckgawd]

I can guarntee you one thing- that is a story that every gambler can tell! everyone has thier streaks and it sucks when it is a losing one!

Your stories about how you got screwed in the latter half of ball games, everyone can tell those two- Trust me, thier are worse- Our fellow Member Zorro might be able to tell you stories that you wouldnt believe in horse racing- Couple weeks ago i was watching a race where the horse was winning by several lengths, no other horses with a shot of winning- and the horse veers in, and jumps the rail! Imagine having 100 dollar on the horse or having him with the two following horses for a trifecta! Once that horse jumped the rail, he is out of the race!

I saw a couple things that took me a couple years to realize- Never chase your money, Dont go bigger on a game just because you lost your two early games! You will lose a lot more that way! You will see this year, how many stories there are and why people lose! Take your lickings, learn from them and move on!

We will have a good season- I have no doubts, every year that passes, I learn more and more! If I get in huge trouble I will quite for the season, but so far im doing good, I will keep a record so I know exactly how im doing, plus i will keep tally of my units as well! Its a good way to see how you are doing!

Look foward to the year!

Have a good one!

[CanadianGuy]

I appreciate the thoughts Duck. It's true it does happen to everyone, I just don't like it when its me lol. But you're right, just need to take a break and get back on track. It's sort of nice that NFL regular season is right around the corner since I love capping NFL.

[Superman]

yo CG i got a very similar story to that from about 2 years ago...i think every sports gambler or just gambler will experience that and those who come back will be better for it...you gotta learn lessons like that in life to make you smarter and stronger...

love the seinfeld reference by the way...

[victor]

Whats up Cg I know you dont know me at all...But man when I read this post it made me think about when I had a dry spell...You know what though I specialize in the NFl as do a lot of people who post in here...If we all work together I can see this being a real good year....pull back!! get your funds straight and get ready to make some money..I was tempted in betting the preseaon but I'm glad I layed off....You should always bet your strong points and stay away from you weaker ones(easier said than done I know)....Regular season is almost here (man I cant wait).....I dont know how you guys usualy do it but I will be posting my three best plays (probably on Saturday nights) but between all of us we should have four strong plays every week...Lets make some money gentlemen see you guys at the cashiers cage!!!!!!!

[CanadianGuy]

lol, I knew you would like that one Ben!



Victor, thanks for the reply. Last year in the middle of the week (even though I only joined around week 13 I think it was) I would usually make a post and we would talk out what we all thought would be good potential plays and then we would look into them further. I think it would be a good idea to do the same this year. Last year I picked some favorites to cover and I picked a couple OU's (I'm not that great at football OU's really) but where we really did well was picking out dogs ATS. I mean theres what? 14 games each week, not every favorite will cover the spread. My goal is to pick out about the top 3 dogs each week. I'll probably do the same this year and put 100 on each of the 3 dogs. I know last year coyote was amazing at picking dogs as well.

[victor]

Sounds good to me CG...I like to bet on a live dog myself.....But you know how that goes depends on the linesmaker......Is it September yet....LOL......