Q&A With A Member: What is a Hedge Bet? What is a middle?

[Louie]

A (sort of) new member (badfish2) asked me a question via PM and I figured I would post it here for other new players to read as it could be useful information for any novice players. With all these sharp players hitting parlays and hedging them (yea, I am tooting my own horn, lol) and BigDaddyhitting his middle, a this new member wanted to learn a little bit about betting and what middles and hedges were. This is not the easiest question to answer in a short sentence or two. Therefore, I knew I would have to type an article to give a proper response to these questions. But, I did my best to explain them. If anyone wants to add to my answer and provide further explanation, feel free. I will direct the member to this thread for further information. Anyway, here it is...

Question: What is a hedge bet? What is a middle? Here is the exact qustion

good morning Mr. Louie,

I have been following you and the others for a few weeks now..My bankroll is ready. I'll probably start posting my picks come this thursday for NCAA and NFL. I have read the newcomers thread. I love this site and wanted to thank you for being on top of your game as an admin.

I have a question, i'm hoping you(being a seasoned pro) can answer for me.

What is hedging a parlay? and a middle?

Thanks,
Fish

Answer: My Response (and Other Thread Replies)

Hey BadFish (Is this from the Sublime song?),

Welcome back to the boards. You are more then welcome here. Be sure to join the 2010 football contests and participate in any or all the discussions. Everyone will be happy to answer questions like this for you and offer you help with anything at all. If you have been lurking the boards, I am sure you know that all the regular members here are all good guys...


First, I will explain to you what a "middle" is...

Playing a middle is when you bet team, then line moves in your favor, and you play the other team, hoping that the final score falls in the MIDDLE of those two spreads. If it does, you win both bets. If it doesn't fall in the middle, you only lose the juice from one of the two bets. This example will help you understand this....

Here's an example.

1. You bet Virginia Tech +2.5 ($110 to win 100) on Thursday night.
2. Then today (Monday morning) you see Boise State at a +1.5 at one of your books. T
3. So, to play the middle (you would bet the other side of your Thursday play) you'd bet Boise State at +1.5 ($110 to win $100)

Now, you have played a middle.....which is VTech winning by 1, or Boise winning by 1 or 2). You now have two possible outcomes.

1. The worst of the two outcomes is just losing $10.
2. The best of the two outcomes is winning both bets.

Here is why,...

Outcome 1 (Winning Both)
1. If Boise State wins by 1 or 2 points or VTech wins by 1 point, you win both bets (meaning the middle hit).

Outcome 2 (Winning 1 of 2)
If Boise State wins by more then 2 points, you lose the bet you made on Thursday, but win the one you made on Monday (-$10).
If VTech wins by 2 points, you win the bet you made on Thursday, but lose the bet you made on Monday. (netting you -$10)



Now, I will explain what a "hedge" is....

Lets say you bet a 5 team parlay ($200 to win $4,000) with 4 of picks in the parlay from Saturday's games and 1 of the picks from Monday's game.

You watch the games and all 4 of your Saturday picks win. Now, you just need the 5th pick to come in on Monday and you will win $4,000.

You are now at a huge advantage over your book. The reason being is that you only need one pick to come in to win 4K on a $200 bet. If you stop and think about it, you basically have 20 to 1 odds (for $2000) on the one Monday football play.

So, to minimize the risk and guarantee yourself some money, you can bet ($1,100 to win $1,000) on the opposite of your 5th pick in the parlay. This is your hedge bet and this bet will guarantee you at least some profit (take away some of the risk). This way, your potential profit isn't all riding on that one play which will win you $4,000

Now, you have two possible outcomes;
1. If your 5th team from the parlay wins, you will cash the $4,000 from the parlay, but will lose $1,100 from your hedge bet (on the other team), netting you $2,900
2. If your 5th team from the parlay loses, you will cash the $1,000 from your hedge bet, but you will lose $200 (from the original parlay), netting you $200.

This is what a hedge bet is...Hope this explains it...

If you look at my post from Saturday, you will see my 5 team parlay where I hit 4 on Saturday and just I need Virginia Tech +2 tonight and I will win $3800.

But, the Boise/VTech line moved to a pick at one of my books.

So, to hedge it, I went ahead and bet Boise State Pk today ($2200 to win $2000) as my hedge bet. But, at the same time, I could still win both my hedge and my original parlay if the middle comes in (meaning Boise State wins by 1). So, I have a combination of a hedge and a middle play.

Let me know if this explains it. If it doesn't, please tell me and I will make sure to put it in different terms for you. But, if you look at my parlay on Saturday and my post today, you will probably see what I mean based on what I have told you.

[squirreljf]

Welcome back badfish.

[janeyblackberry]

usefull post

[badfish2]

thanks squirrel. good to be back and best of luck this year.

[Louie]

usefull post

This isn't...

[Igetp2s]

It rarely makes sense to hedge parlays. If you make a 5 team parlay knowing you will hedge if the first 4 games win, you'd be better off just making the 4 team parlay. You are giving away money by planning to hedge.

I'm sorry for being so blunt, but it is a very poor strategy.