MLB Road Teams

[bigwinnner8]

Stumbled across some pretty interesting road team info...

MLB teams play much worse on the road, but just how much worse? This season is there are just 4 teams are above .500 on the road at the halfway point. The dfferece from the AL, and the NL weighs decisively in favor of the AL winning 40 more games overall in interleague play. So if the national league is the weaker half, and road teams struggle, but when do they struggle the most? Is it series one, when they have been home, and now play in a foreign environment? No, teams have shown no value playing, or fading in their 1st road trip. Is it the second road series, where after just a few short days, they have to travel again, perhaps to a 3rd time zone in a week? This is where the value lies, and when it is time to fade a road team in the mediocre NL. As of this post there have been 80 series where a national league team has gone on the road, and is now playing their second consecutive series on the road. These teams have an overall record if you played them in every game of their 2nd straight road series of 83-162 or winners of 33.8% of these games. That record covering 245 games, would have netted you +75 units of profit! These teams have gone 2-1 or better in just 13 o the 80 series, and have gotten a sweep in just 2 of the 80.

[bigwinnner8]

I'm going to try to get on here once a week and post all the NL road teams playing in their second road series at 1 unit a piece, and see if it makes any $$$

[Louie]

Interesting idea. I like the logic...

Looking forward to see how it does...

[bigwinnner8]

I did a little fine research this weekend and found that, while the NL was -0.17 units this weekend, the AL was +4. But if you play every second road series in both divisions you’re looking at 10+ plays per night, which is biting off a little more then I’m willing to chew. So I did a little more research and found that Texas, one of the top 5 AL road teams, went 2-1 this weekend (playing against the system). While the Giants, one of the bottom 5 NL home teams went 1-2 (playing with the system) and the Mets, one of the top 5 NL road teams went 2-1 (against the system). So if we eliminate the top 5 road teams and the bottom 5 home teams in both divisions, we can play the NL and AL without going overboard on plays while increasing the odds that our home teams will win the series.

Top 5 AL road teams:
NYY
LAA
Oak
Tex
TB

Bottom 5 AL home teams:
Sea
Tex
Cle
Tor
KC

Top 5 NL road teams:
STL
PHI
SFG
FLA
NYM

Bottom 5 NL home teams:
SFG
WAS
HOU
SD
COL


I also decided that I don’t like posting the plays for this test run on the same post as my day to day plays, so until this proves worthy of being included I will continue to add the plays and success rates to this thread.

[bigwinnner8]

6/7 HOME TEAMS TO PLAY ON

AL
no plays

NL
Pitt (-130) over Hou


YTD: 0-0

[bigwinnner8]

6/8 HOME TEAMS TO PLAY ON

AL
no plays

NL
Pitt (-125) over Hou

YTD: 1-0 +0.7 units

[bigwinnner8]

6/9 HOME TEAMS TO PLAY ON

AL
no plays

NL
Pitt (+110)

YTD: 2-0 +1.45 units

(this will pick up more over the weekend)

[bigwinnner8]

6/10 HOME TEAMS TO PLAY ON

AL
Detroit -117
Cleveland -114

NL
no plays

YTD: 2-1 +0.45 units

[bigwinnner8]

6/11 HOME TEAMS TO PLAY ON

AL
Det (-150)
Cle (-115)
Tex (+110)
*KC (+120)

NL
Mil (-180)
Phi (-145)
NYM (-135)
CHC (-145)

*KC is a bottom 5 home team but Sea is THE bottom road team, so we'll play them.

YTD: 3-2 +0.42 units

[bigwinnner8]

6/12 HOME TEAMS TO PLAY ON

AL
Det (-115)
Cle (+130)
Tex (+105)
KC (-135)

NL
Mil (-110)
Phi (-130)
NYM (-140)
CHC (-260) ...wow

YTD: 9-4 +3.32 units