Philadelphia 53-45 (26-22 road) at Florida 51-46 (27-21 home
Florida will be starting Josh Johnson. This is his second appearance this year. He has been off for nearly a year after having Tommy John surgery which is the replacement of a ligament in the arm. Many are surprised that he has come back in such a short time. He received a no decision on July 10 at the Los Angeles Dodgers. In that game he went 5 innings, gave up 6 hits(all singles) and 3 ER, with 6 strike outs and no BB. He is 24 years old, and is a rather big fellow at 6'7" and 230 pounds. Johnson did not face Philadelphia in 2007. In 2006 he was 1-1 vs Philadelphia, an 8-14 loss at home giving up 5 runs on 9 hits in 4 2/3 innings, 1 HR, 4 BBs and 1 strike out. The other game was a 15-2 win at Philly going 7 complete, giving up 1 run on 5 hits( that run was a HR) gave no free passes and struck out 8. He was 12-7 that year with a 3.10 ERA and a .236 Avg against batters faced.

Starting for Philly is Cole Hamels(9-6 with a 3.15 ERA). He is a lefty at 24 years old, 6'3" and weighs 190. Last year he was 15-5 with a 3.39 ERA and .237 vs hitters. Hamels faced Florida twice this year. He lost 2-6 at Florida most recently, where the bull pen let him down by allowing 4 runs in the walk off ninth. He went 8 complete, giving up only 2 runs on 3 hits(both runs were HRs).He threw 67.8 % strikes and in the process struck out 13 batters and walked one. A real heartbreaker loss to say the least. The game before that was a 3-7 loss at home when he pitched 5 2/3 innings, giving up 7 runs on 8 hits(3 singles,2 doubles and 3 HRs) with 66.3 % of his pitches finding the strike zone. Hamels has given up only 5 runs in his last 3 starts, but he allowed 19 hits(3 of those being HRs. I think it would be safe to say that this guy will be a pretty good ML pitcher, but he has a definite tendency to give up the long ball(5 HRs in the last 2 games vs Florida). J Cantu stung him for 1 HR and 2 HRs respectively in those games. It also may be safe to predict that Cantu, who bats 3rd for the Marlins, will walk at least once. But the problem for Hamels will be that Cantu is preceeded in the 1 and 2 slot by H Ramirez and Hermedia and followed by W Helm. Ramirez and Helm can both hit this guy. Gonzalez, who will probably bat 6th, can also connect on Hamels. It could be an extremely interesting game, and in my opinion the 8 1/2 run line is a bit low.

In the two games that these two teams played this year, the Philly bull pen pitched 3 2/3 innings, giving up 4 runs on 5 hits, allowing 2 free passes, 5 strike outs and 1 HR.
Florida's bull pen went 4 1/3 innings, gave up 2 runs on 3 hits, walked 2, struck out 3 and allowed 1 HR.

I like the home dog most often times if they are pitching anyone who can consistently throw strikes, and it could be a good play if Hamels gets into a little trouble with the top of the Florida order. But the over in my opinion is the best play, and Johnson's arm has not proven itself to be healed yet.

"Everybody plays the fool sometimes......there's no exception to the rule."