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  1. #1
    Studplayr's Avatar
    Studplayr is offline Cappersinfo Player M.V.P. Member
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    Betting strategy Cubs/Marlins 2nd post

    If you rememeber my first post I placed a rather large bet on the marlins to win this series figuring I could hedge off at a reasonable price if the series went 7 games. Now thanks to a miraculous game 6 I find myself in that position.
    T got the marlins at 500 to win 900. Now comes the problem, I under estimated the publics perception of the cubs. They are a -220 for game 7 on the opening line. I felt they would be -160 at best. Carey Wood if you notice has,nt pitched a home game in the
    playoffs, the reason being he is terrible at Wrigley. Yet the betting public has made him -220.
    I would have to lay 1100 to 500 if I took the cubs in game 7. Which would leave me a $200 loss if the Marlins win. I don,t find this acceptable. That leaves me with basically 3 options.
    1] leave the bet the way it is. I either win 900 on the marlins or lose 500 on the cubs.
    2) Take the cubs on the run line. If the cubs win by more than 1 run I break even. If the cubs win by exactly 1 run I lose approximately $1150. If the marlins win outright I make approximately $250.
    3) Take the Marlins on the run line. If the cubs win by more than 1 run I lose $1000. If the cubs win by one run I make approximately $50. If the Marlins win outright I make approximately $1450.
    Right now I am considering option #3. I would appreciate any input as to what the readers of this message think would be my best option.

    GL
    Stud
    Studplayr

  2. #2
    hd1232 is offline Registered User Rookie
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    Double Down

    New option double down on th Fish tonight. Take the risk. Take the marlins on the moneyline, it paid off for us last night. If letting it ride again tonight. Think of the big win if let more money on the Marlins and they win. YOu will get the series and the game. YOu willl be glued to the tv. You only live once man. I doubt you bet for a living so, take the risk and go with the fish. Thats whear my money is at today folks. They have the momentum now. Two straight. Bats are swinging big. Lets face it the city of Chigago wants it more then the whole state of florida but the fish are playing like they want it more then the cubs. I think it bullshit that everyone is pointing at the fan. He didnt have the catch. Look at the shortstop who had the error. they could have easily turned a double play. I also like Boston to battle back this afternoon. Its been a great series back and forth. It is still mind bogleing how the yanks are -225 when yesterday they were at like -105 or -115 something like that. That seems like such a jump, I dont care whear they are playing that still doesnt make sense. Well Take care all and good. Lets all make some money today.

  3. #3
    Studplayr's Avatar
    Studplayr is offline Cappersinfo Player M.V.P. Member
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    Decided to stick with option 1 after sleeping on it. I really like the Marlins to win this game. However , I look at it this way if the Cubs win I stand to make money any way. The public will be laying it in on the Cubs against the Yankees driving the price to bargain levels. The Yankees will win this series in no more than 5 games.
    I was watching the game last night when they did a poll rating the starting pitching of the 4 championship series teams.The results amazed me. 60% of the people thought the Cubs had the best, 26% yankees , 9% red sox and 5% Fla.
    I myself rate the Yankee starters far and away the best, Boston 2nd and Chicago 3rd just barely above Fla.
    In addition to the above the Cubs bullpen sucks and there sticks are mediocre when compared to the Yankee lineup.

    GL
    Stud
    Studplayr

  4. #4
    Louie's Avatar
    Louie is offline Administrator
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