Big Thursday Night NBA Play (with Analysis)

[Louie]

2012 NBA Season: 13-15 (47%) +1710

Ol' Louie's got one for Thursday night that he really really likes.....

Matchup: Houston Rockets +3 @ Phoenix Suns -3 (o/u: 200.5)

First, the Rockets totally shot their load last night in beating a similar caliber Portland squad on the road (where they were mistakenly a 7.5 point dog). The public will probably think them getting 3 against a lesser Phoenix team is a good value tonight..... .....WRONG!

Just like my last big NBA play (which won easily), you have a team (Houston) who won on the road and now has to travel over 1000 miles, from Portland to Phoenix (4 hour flight), to play back to back road games (against a hot team coming off a days rest). They'll spend the time not on the court on the plane or sleeping in a hotel.

Houston is a sub .500 road team (5-8) and is combing off a road win.

I don't have any numbers to back this up, but I can guarantee that...

....If you keep track of every sub .500 road team who is playing the second of two back-to-back road games (coming off an outright road win), their ATS record is horrible in that second road game (guarantee it's under 40%)

I also guarantee that...

....It's even worse if that team is traveling over 1000 miles to play the second road game (such as Portland to Phoenix) and their opponent is coming off three wins and a night's rest (especially this season).

Don't underestimate the power of a night off in this extremely condensed NBA Schedule. Teams are tiring out, which is why totals are going down.

I really think this is a great spot for Phoenix...who is at home...

Not only did the Suns have the night off last night (mentally preparing for the Rockets tonight), but they've won 3 in a row, including a 99-90 win on the road against the 17-9 Hawks on Monday (followed by a 107-105 win in Milwaukee). They flew home from Milwaukee on Tuesday night and had Wednesday to rest up.

With the Suns going for their 4th straight win (2 of their last 3 wins on the road), returning home, and coming off a day's rest, they should be set to bring their "A Game" tonight.

And, let's be honest about these mediocre NBA squads; there's not much separating the (15-11) Rockets and the (11-14) Suns. Just a few bounces their way, a road game or two, and a two game winning streak. I took a closer look at 'em both and I really don't see much difference in the caliber of these squads. This is exactly why Houston was getting 7.5 from the JailBlazers last night on the road (even though the Rockets have a better record and Portland is on the outs if the playoffs started today). However, I do see a lot of external factors that give the Suns the edge tonight. If Portland was giving 7.5 at home last night to Houston why is Phoenix only giving 3 after all I explained above??....it's because of public perception...

Once again, I really like the Suns and like them a lot in this spot as they fight to get back into the playoff hunt. I see a lot of value here. Hit this one for what you think it's worth (but at least play it small). This is worth 3 or 4 units in my opinion..

I feel this line should be Phoenix -6.5 (if the betting public had a clue and didn't just look at the standings when making their bets).

I got 2.5 at -115...This should go up to 3.5 and maybe 4 by tomorrow.

Thursday Night NBA Play

Phoenix Suns -2.5 -115
(2300 to win 200)

[NFLMINNOWPHD]

GL TODAY LOUIE

[Jamminj408]

with you here

[Oilfield Max]

Got it at -3

[BigWinDaddy]

I like it a lot.

[dale.price26]

I like the play as well I posted it last night also good luck louie

[Louie]

Thanks guys...Hope I don\'t let yas down tonight...

[CaptnCrunch]

Pretty new on here guys and hardly ever post, mostly just use and abuse your picks I'm excited about this game tonight loved the matchup even before Louie aka Nostradamus shined on it lol Well, after this game I'm either gonna get a free iPad or a 1100 dollar one hahaha

Let's milk the cow and get this cheese boys

[CaptnCrunch]

Not stealing Louie's thunder I bet the iPad because I have faith in him. Thank you for the intel Louie your the man.

[LostNblunteD]

Good luck bros. Wish yall the best as I'm still with the mighty opposite big!.. GL

[Cdawk24]

I like it Louie, with you all the way!!!

[dale.price26]

Wow man guess we picked wrong the suns suck!!

[CaptnCrunch]

[Louie]

Sorry fellas....

Got another one I really like for tomorrow tho...