Mt West Wednesday...

[NattyBumpo]

Sun Belt (7-9) Mt West (4-0) Ivy League (0-2)

804 - Air Force +1 vs Wyoming

I don't have a ton of analysis to offer on this game. Simply that there is a huge gap between where I have these two teams rated and the oddsmaker does. Air Force is a tough road venue. Wyoming isn't a "bad" team in my opinion. In fact I dont think any of the teams in the Mt West are terrible. But the top three are so good the bottom three may look pretty bad at times. Both Air Force and Wyoming handle the ball well, play good defense in general and are good free throw shooting teams. I think the main difference here is AF is probably a little better defensive team. The fact that both teams depend a lot on 3 point shooting really gives AF a big advantage at home. It baffles me that AF is the underdog. This is a generic line closely based on a similar formula to the Sagarin Ratings. In fact the books shaded a little to Air Force if you go by Sagarin. I think these particular team ratings are quite a bit off in Mr Sagarins' formula.

[Louie]

Air Force just jumped to +2.5 as the Vegas consensus...

[Fox244]

There are a lot of games I like today, and for some reason most of them are road teams, with the exception of this game. I like AF in this game at home. I agree that the two teams are not too far from each other talent wise, but AF isn't an easy place to visit and Wyoming hasn't really been road tested this season.

With Air Force coming off a big win at Boise I think they ride that momentum and win at home tonight.

[Louie]

I'm in on Air Force...

Fox...post the rest of your plays in a new thread...

[NattyBumpo]

Line move on Wyoming is a surprising piss off....
FYI...the public/line movement has gone 0-4 against the closing line in the Mt West on sides so far.

[NattyBumpo]

Gotta double check that but I think Im right.

[NattyBumpo]

Loser...

Uncharacteristic slop fest from Air Force. Credit Wyoming defense.

On a positive note, Air Force gets Michael Lyons back tonight after missing the last seven games. Definitely one of their most athletic talents. Maybe not a very good excuse, but sometimes when a starter misses significant time, it takes a little bit of a readjustment for the team to fall into sync upon his return. Other than giving Wyoming a lot of credit for the defense forcing ugly turnovers and knowing how well Air Force usually handles the ball, maybe this accounts for at least some of the turnovers. I can only scratch my head and offer this piss poor excuse for such a lousy Air Force performance.

Of course it wont be the first time I was WRONG about a game.