Saturday... SunBelt/MtWest/Ivy action

[NattyBumpo]

(14-16) Sun Belt (5-3)Mt West (4-6) Ivy League

The more I learn about the Ivy League, the more I wonder how I ever used to cash tickets on Friday nights (not that I didn't lose some too) without following the conference all that closely. However, I cherry picked a game here and there (often playing Metro Atlantic when I wasn't big on the Ivy card). There's just so many unpredictable and intangible facets to the Ivy conference season.... it seems daunting.
I really am enjoying the experience and I want to meet the challenge, so I will continue ... whether I think it's a wise gambling choice or not. It's kind of my own self inflicted labor of love. I may just make smaller wagers for a while.

I'm starting to feel like my Sun Belt is gonna have a winning record before the end. I'm beginning to feel like I'm getting a good handle on some of these teams. Better late than never. But it's not too late yet.

Being selective in the Mt West seems pretty key. I know these teams well and get to watch nearly all the games. A lot of local coverage in my region is most helpful and easily attainable. I strongly feel I will be OK here.

Nothing to brag about at 23-25 overall so far... but I'll take satisfaction (if I finish conference play with a winning record) that I overcame a mental beating after November, I battled back and I didn't quit.
The support and encouragement of this forum has been instrumental in inspiring me to stick with it. I thank you all.

Here's what I have for Saturday.... may add an Ivy side and/or total tomorrow.



587 - New Mexico -8 @ Boise St

I really like the fact that the Lobos have had an extra day to prepare for Boise who is coming home off a ball busting and heartbreaking effort at SDSU. 2 days for Boise to pick itself up off three tough losses in a row (UNLV, Wyoming and SDSU) is gonna be seemingly impossible in my opinion. And New Mexico is not the same bag o peanuts as SDSU or UNLV.
SDSU is very young and was still a bit stunned and offensively stagnant off the Col St game last Saturday. I'm staying away from the Aztecs til I see them improve on offense. UNLV (so far) will always be vulnerable to road lapses as long as they insist on "doing what we do" (god I wanna throw up when I hear teams say that). Until they figure out they have to go to a plan "B" when the three doesn't fall, and until they figure out that to do plan "B" they have to put Massamba on the bench for Carlos Lopez (when he gets healthy) and pound the post, they will make an inferior teams look good on the road from time to time.
We've had two instances where New Mexico has easily handled lesser teams on the road... at Wyoming and at Air Force. And both of these teams are probably better and, at the very least, every bit as good as Boise. Air Force and Wyoming are notoriously tough road venues that New Mexicos experience, balance, defense and discipline handled beautifully. New Mexico knows the next two games are pivotal... at Boise and home vs Wyoming to have a chance to steal first place when they face SDSU on the road and UNLV at home.
Boise is in a state of disbelief and dismay starting 0-6. The frustration is compounded by an overtime loss to TCU and nearly beating (but nearly isn't a win) two of the top teams in the conference. This is a young team and this situation is going to have a negative affect. How they deal with it will show a lot. But for now... they are not in a good position to face a team like New Mexico.
There's no value in this line by the way. I knew there wouldn't be. This might be one of those times the books are taking a risk and begging for Boise St. action. After all... it's quite logical that a lot of causual gamblers will look at the UNLV game and say. "Fuck man, Boise almost beat UNLV at home now their getting 8 vs the Lobos who lost by 17 at UNLV. I love the home dog!"

And thats exactly what they are hoping for.



654 - W.Kentucky -3 vs S.Alabama

No matter that S.Alabama won at home against FAU in a game that was basically tied for 35 minutes. The Jaguars suck... plain and simple. FAU has had trouble on offense all year and it bit em at the end of this one when they couldn't hit free throws. FAU stunk it up and the final score was not really the easy S.Alabama win the final score would suggest.
W.Kentucky is in bad need of a win. They have potential. They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games. SAlabama was 0-4 ATS until FAU came in and crapped all over themselves. I still consider a losing streak ATS a losing streak until a team covers two in a row. WKentucky is on an ATS win streak with almost a whole week to prepare. I see a ton of value in this line. I have it at -9. I had it at -7.5 at the beginning of conference play. SAlabama has emerged victorious in two extremely ugly wars the past six days. WKentucky has spent those same 6 days getting rested and ready for SAlabama.



637 - Fla International +8.5 @ FAU

FIU is beginning to blossom. The last 2 games have seen a dramatic and consistent defensive tenacity. I think that a lot of good things are on the horizon for this team. Now that DeJuan Wright has transitioned back into the lineup they are starting to gel nicely.
We also have a great spot to play my "road revenge" angle (its proven to be pretty good again this year, as always). FIU lost by 2 at home to FAU on Jan 21st. It was the first game of DeJuan Wrights return. As I like to say... a starter returning off a long injury layoff often hurts the team at first. Well now it's starting to pay off.
The FIU defense getting real good doesn't bode well for FAU, who has had a season plagued with offensive struggles and is traveling home off a funky effort at SAlabama (did I mention that SAlabama really sucks... LOL). FIU was in a tough spot that day and neither team played very good defense. Difference is.. now FIU defense is on the rise as FAU is fading.

Good luck if you agree. Peace.

[Louie]

Quality Post as Usual...

[Oilfield Max]

Very informative thanks and I'm taking NM and the hilltoppers with ya.

[BigWinDaddy]

Right? Natty is a quality member of this forum. Thanks for all your posts, Natty!

Quality Post as Usual...

[bigwinnner8]

Good luck today Natty, I have a pretty Mountain West chalk heavy card today (Zags, BYU, UNLV) but we avoided each other on plays. Florida International is already up to 10, might jump on that one with you closer to tip off, depending on how the earlier games fall.

[NattyBumpo]

Thanks guys. Good luck to the board today.

BW.... been up for an hour finishing up the evaluations of last nights Ivy games. I may have to add some more on FIU, double digits are sweet for the road revenge angle. Ive noticed the betting market has been slipping in the results when they move the line in Sun Belt games lately. Especially with FAU (Im a victim) and F
IU. I think they're wrong here too.

Heres an Ivy game for tonight....

620 - Princeton/Yale over 128.5

I read all about Yale focusing on getting out of their offensive funk all week leading into the Penn game. I also read articles about how Penn knew they had to improve on defense in the event that the high flying back court attack might falter on the road. Yale comments focused on crisp ball movement and getting more team involvement... not just getting the ball to their workhorse (Mangano) and watching him do his thing. The week proved more productive for Yale in their goals to improve than so for Penn, who had a short week and suffered because of it. Yale succeeded in improving their shooting percentage very nicely vs Penn. They would have taken that into the actual scoring side of the ledger had they not had a sloppy night taking care of the ball. They had 17 turnovers. I think they can improve on that part tonight facing Princeton on back to back travel nights. I can imagine the Princeton defense, which has not been particularly sharp on the perimeter losing a step defensively while Yale has another good shooting night. I don't know if Yale can stop the Princeton offense, which has been excellent in two road games off the exam break. In fact I think it only gets better tonight. Its only a theory so far and I havn't had much experience tracking Ivy League games in this back to back situation, but I kinda think the defenses suffer a bit. It's a lot easier to keep it going on offense for consecutive nights than play glue defense. I think this also leads to more fouls and free throws.

[NattyBumpo]

3-1 today. As usual the added Ivy total ruined a perfect card. I doubled up on FIU and played the Ivy total small (little more than a half unit size bet). So really a nice day for the bankroll. The Ivy ding hurts my record percentage and that stings. I will only play the Ivy League games pretty small til I feel more confident so anyone who is interested should be careful. But I'm pleased overall.

Hope all did well today as always.