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(16-16) Sun Belt (6-3) Mt West (4-7) Ivy League
Usually I would tend to fade a team going on the road for a non conference game in the heat of conference play. This is a bit different. This a regional home town rivalry. These schools play each every year and the distance between the two is only 40 miles. So, a lot of local pride and even some recruiting advantages are on the line.
LOL.... I wonder if there's any denominational/religious rivalry going on here too. It's fun to imagine the Methodist preacher dipping into the donation basket after Sunday services, crossing the street for a nip of sacramental vino and getting a wager down for a nickel with the priest across the street.
571 - Texas Christian University +2 @ Southern Methodist University
I'm a little biased, but I don't think it's a stretch to say the Mt West is a lot better than Conference USA this year. So seeing that SMU is in the dregs of Conference USA leads me to assume that TCU is much better than SMU. I also must conclude that since this is a down year for SMU, who only has one really good offensive threat (do everything forward Robert Nyakundi) from last years 20-15 CIT semifinalist team, that the experience factor has TCU gaining ground while SMU has faded since these teams faced off on TCUs' home court last year. The final score was TCU 84 SMU 64. The Mustangs had a two headed monster in Papa Dia and the aforementioned Robert Nyakundi to deal with in that game. Now that Papa is gone I'm thinking it shouldn't be impossible to slow down or contain Nyakundi a little better than the 14 point and 5 rebounds he attained in last years game. With the team losing Papa Dia, Nyakundi has been trying to carry the Mustangs.... alas to poor and diminishing results.
TCU lost an overtime game at Colorado St. They've beaten the two lower tier teams (Air Force and Boise St). Beating Wyoming at home and taking Col St into overtime on the road. Their last game at San Diego St. was a 10 pt loss that can be looked at as an improvement and morale victory since the other two top tier teams (UNLV and New Mexico) took them to the woodshed on their home courts. So... there's progress from for TCU who is 3-4 in a very good (top to bottom) Mt West conference and a regression for SMU . TCU is 6-0 this year vs in state opposition w/wins over Texas Pan-American, Lamar (who is no pushover), Rice, Texas Tech, and a road win at Houston. SMU is on a downward spiral lately losing 5 in a row straight up and ATS. In their last 10 games and since the New Year they are 1-3 (1-3 ATS) at home.
Statistics are hard to compare since I think the recent level of competition doesn't have a lot of parity. The UNLV, New Mexico and SDSU games really throw a curveball in trying to analyze TCUs' stats. But basically SMU isn't much of an offensive juggernaut, they do look like a pretty good defensive team. The only concern for me is a pretty good perimeter defense for SMU vs a TCU team, on the road, that may like the three point shot a little too much. TCU also gets a lot of points off of turnovers. SMU is pretty good at not turning the ball over very much. So there's a bit of concern there. But overall I think the lack of SMUs scoring firepower and the fact that if TCU can shut down the one main threat of Nyakundi then TCU should rule the day.
Some of the points I've made about TCU 3 point shooting, SMU perimeter defense, TCU scoring about 25% of it's points off turnovers, and SMUs' offensive woes also give me reason to think I can score two wins in my Mt West column by playing the total as well...
571 - TCU/SMU under 124.5
I am playing the side and total both as regular size bets. It's possible one is a better play than the other... I'm not sure which.
I am also going to throw a very small dollop on a parlay of SMU ML (tomorrow, when ML's are available at "ye ole sport booke") w/the under to enjoy more gravy (as I am as greedy as most red blooded Americans). I won't count the parlay in the record. I don't really consider parlays worthy of recommendation except in very rare circumstances. People are on their own if they want to pick one, both, or parlay anything I suggest.
So ... party on and best of luck to anyone who agrees and plays along.
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natty
