Sun Belt Thursday...

[NattyBumpo]

Not feeling very happy tonight with a shit the bed wednesday ...

Thursday is a new day.

(16-16) Sun Belt (6-5) Mt West (4-7) Ivy League

714 - Denver/FAU under 122.5

Line already dropped a half point. I made this total a conservative 107. FAU hasn't scored over 60 points in conference play against a slow paced offense. They don't shoot the three much and when they do, they don't do it well. However, they do defend the three pretty good, which is where Denver lives and dies. Denver three point shooting has slipped a bit lately as well. Books have been putting Denver totals in the 120's for good reason a lot lately. Mostly due to their high 3 point shooting percentage and their inability to shut teams down from beyond the arc. These factors are going to be nullified, in my opinion, in this matchup, for the reasons just mentioned. Both teams still play at a very slow half court pace, and points are going to be at a premium here. FAU cannot lose another game or MTSU will lock up first place in the division. LOL.... I doubt they sweep the rest of the year, but in their minds, locking down on defense is their best hope. They may not be ready to raise the white flag til the conference tournament just yet.


723 - UALR +6 @ La Lafayette

Ualr is a half game ahead of La Lafayette in the divisional standings for first place. Yes, it will be a hard fought focused effort from both teams. Getting points should be premium here. I make the line La Lafayette -4. So a couple points of value from my point of view.

Working my favorite angle of "road revenge" for UALR who was destroyed by the Cajuns by 24 points at home on January 19th in the worst conference loss of the season for UALR. The Trojans suffered an abysmal shooting percentage that night, going only 25% from the field and 11% from beyond the arc. Only one other time have they come close to that when they were held to 40 points vs FAU on January 7th. It's weird... UALR seems to play better on the road than at home. UALR has proven to be a "road warrior" against some of the better teams in the league this year. Only one loss recently to W.Kentucky. They are 4-1 straight up and 4-1 ats in conference play with 3 quality road wins at N.Texas, Denver and Arkansas St.... the underdog in all. They also won and covered at La Monroe. They recently have won two home games against Denver and La Monroe, which I consider impressive because these two teams were in the "road revenge" spot themselves. They beat Denver as a 4 point home dog by 7 points. Its very difficult to get a solid win in these spots vs good teams. They didn't cover against La Monroe which I find acceptable because they were certainly looking past them to this game and covering in these revenge spots again... is very tough to do.

On the other hand La Lafayette doesn't have very many convincing home wins under their belt. Only the first game of conference play vs FAU was a solid home win. They then lost straight up to S.Alabama (not a team I think highly of), had to go into overtime to beat FIU (who was still without a key starter in DeJuan Wright and had lost 2 in a row at the time), the next home game was a sweaty 2 point win over N.Texas, and most recently had to win in overtime once again vs Denver.

Hope everyone did better than myself this Wednesday night. I'm hoping for a bounce back.

Good luck if you agree and play along.

PS:
I'm still leaning FIU at home against N.Texas. Wish I could have gotten a couple of points or a pick but the books seem to be keen to the improvement of FIU. The Sagarin line is FIU -2 and my line is FIU -3. The possible shade to N.Tex and maybe some public perception might bring the line down so I will wait. Also, I was looking for a spot to fade N.Texas since they are so young and thin since the academic ineligability of Chris Jones and Jordan Williams. I'm gonna watch this line and mull it over til tomorrow afternoon. I usually regret adding games I have to think about for too long but I really wanted to ride the tide of FIU here. Its highly probable I will add FIU.
Any opinions?

[Louie]

Totally game for Ark LR..

[bigwinnner8]

Hey Natty, any opinion on FAU -1? I have them circled as a possible play today.

[NattyBumpo]

Good luck Louie.... BW, I can't say for certain they lose but I wouldn't be betting on FAU any time soon. Maybe they get the offense going tonight, but at this point I'd have to say the odds are thin. Maybe they improve by conf. tournament or at some point but right now even free throws are an issue for them. But no, I really don't like Denver in this game either. Big pass on the side is my opinion. Of course one will win .... that's the problem with opinions on games you just don't like. Ha ha...

I'm down on the third play this morning. Not a good history for me when I do this in this forum.... but that may change tonight. Couple of books have this at 1.5 from overnighnt so I'm gonna get it while I can.

716 - Fla International -1 vs N.Texas



Just a heads up. I'm really digging the under in that DEN/FAU game. It's the best one in my opinion.

[NattyBumpo]

Not a very pleasant last 2 days for me.(1-2 tonight). But.... Louie, I'm pleased you picked the right one.