Ncaab 2/11

[Jamminj408]

Love This One!

Northwestern +7
(265 to win 250)

good luck!

[Jamminj408]

gonna add a 4 team parlay for the heck of it

Oregon State -4
Northwestern +7
Georgetown -14
Golden State Warriors -1.5

(50 to win 550)

[Louie]

Love This One!

Northwestern +7

(265 to win 250)

good luck!

JJ man...What up?

First, if your inital post doesn't look exactly the same as the original, it's because I accidenitally deleted it by mistake when trying to fan through some spam comments (while talking on the phone, saying goodbye to my family, and doing tax preparation at the same time). I had to re-post it based on everything I remember you said (I remember the plays for sure)...

Anyway....

I am Riding NW with ya very big... 5 Units for me....
Let's get at this one my friend...

FYI: I also never ride non-Cappersinfo.com player posted plays (unless of course they have a great write-up and some incredibly efficient reasoning). Glad you're a CI Player member now.

I also wanted to show a few things to you here.. I knew you had some good understanding of these teams and of sports (can tell you actually watch games) just by your picks........

BUT at the same time I also see some of your flaws (a very BIG one) as well in your money management and betting/handicapping attack...

I will explain...and offer some general (and 100% friendly) advice JJ....

First, "money management" is more then half the battle in successful sports handicapping and key to winning at sports betting. What is "money management". It's not just looking after your money. It's betting it wisely, keeping records, and several other elements which involve "value for your money"

Anyway...Let's look at JJ's parlay for Sunday (God...Sunday is always the best betting day no matter what sport is running. isn't it..?)

Lets compare that parlay with your play on Northwestern....

gonna add a 4 team parlay for the heck of it

Oregon State -4
Northwestern +7
Georgetown -14
Golden State Warriors -1.5

(50 to win 550)

First of all...Please don't take these remarks as patronizing comments at all, look at this post as me trying to be your father/monther, or me insulting your intelligence in anyway. It's not my goal. I hope you can see that. After all, I am of course riding Northwestern mostly because of your post (along with some of my own glimpse and looks at these teams). So, I do think you have brains.

Second, my goal here (and has always been the same goal). That goal is definitely not to patronize my members or treat them like morons.

My overall goal (with the help of the sharper members here) is to

1. make my players smarter bettors,
2. help them become sharper handicappers, and
3. for them to cash out profit checks at the end of the season (leaving their starting bankroll in tact)

I want you, JJ; and everyone else to finish in the + category at the end of every single season you bet (which is impossible...but I always try). Most of all, I want everyone to read advice that is important and leads to success. This is advice for all to reason with. I thought this would be a very good opportunity to share knowledge along with my opinions on value, money management, and financial reasoning; also talk reasons on why Vegas is so bright, gaming revenue increases more then in should each year, and why the sportsbooks are so appealing to novice betters. Again, "novice" is not a label for you JJ (or anyone else). Novice bettors know who they are.

So, now that I got that out of that of the way (I think everyone should look at JJ's plays and read this thread and the info below (and think about it every single time they go to make some sports bets on games they like)

So this is my point (yea, I do have one lol)....

I know it's great to cash a big parlay bet (we all know it's F***INH INCREDIBLE), but the most important thing to remember; the risk/reward is not there at all....and that risk/reward ratio goes down with the more teams you put in a parlay AND the more money you bet on that parlay...

Note: don't stop reading even if you know the above is true...

Here's what I mean in more detail (and think about this before submitting your parlays online or calling your dicklicker of a bookie (who doesn't know his ass from a hole in the wall)...

So JJ......

You're betting $250 on a play that you LOVE tonight; and I'm with you (Go Cats).

You bet 265 to win 250; Let's say that's a 5-unit play and your top play ($50 is 1 unit)......

This means your average bet is (to win) $50;

1 Unit = $55 to win 50....(or $52.5 to win $50)....all depending on the vig)....

You're average single play (1-5 units) is $50 (1 Unit) and $250 )5 Units).

You shouldn't be betting any parlays (especially 4-team parlays) for any amount larger then then 10-25% of a single unit.

Feel me? If not, here's why (you should risk anymore the 1/10 to 1/4 (or maybe even 1/3) of a unit on a multi-team (3-team ,4-team, 5-team, etc.) parlay...even a 2-teamer...

Rising an entire "unit" (or one average regular bet) on a 4-team parlay is a path to bankroll destruction....Even if you hit one 4-team parlay out of every 15, you'll still be on a hole as they only pay 12/1 (at that's with the best parlay odds on the web).

Put it this way (what you should do)....

You bet $50 on that parlay.

Instead, Take $100 & bet $27.50 to win $25 (one half of your $50 unit) on each one of the 4 games you like in the parlay (total bet $110 to win 100 / dividing up between 4 games) . Now, if you go 3-1, you pick up almost full unit ($45 in profit) where a Parlay get's you dogshit (minus $50 instead of +$45).

Your way,

Now say you lose your BIG play on Northwestern ($265 to win $250).....If you go 3-1 with the 1/2 unit plays that you were going to parlay (at $25/per) your only down $220 (when you'd be down $300 if you parlayed the plays).

Know what I am sayin'...?

But you might be thinking..."we'll if I lose the big play, I can still have a chance of the $50 parlay bailing me out"

Let me tell you something right now. The idea that parlays will bail you out is how 50% of the guys in GA end up there (the other 50% are casino players and old ladies playing bingo). These suckers played more parlays to dig themselves out of holes;

Note: This is the exact type of stuff my advertisers DON'T want me posting on this forum. But, first, they can't tell me what to say on my site. Second, I'm here fore you guys FIRST and my advertisers SECOND.

Here my overall point...Any bet where you can go 7-1 and LOSE, is a total sucker play (not calling you a sucker...I've bet my share of parlays for 1/4 of a unit or 1/6 of a unit) just because I think they are better then lottery tickets; where odds of winning any real money are 1 and over 10 million (and thats just to win 4 figures).

If you're playing parlays for you regular size sports bets (and not playing them as very small amount for recreation (similar to office pools), you're on a path of destruction. You might as well go and play a big square on the roulette table.

Play smart...think of your bankroll as your ammo: Why would you waste 1 full bullet on a shot that only has a 1 of 20 chance of getting a kill (even if it can take out 10 guys in one shot)

Instead, use only 2 bullets (or four 1/2 bullets...lol) that has a 50/50 chance (even more if scanned the target properly) of taking out 4 guys....

My overall point!

Yes, Parlays are fun, but for very small betting amounts.

If you have a $500 bankroll for the entire season (6 months)...

....you shouldn't bet more then $2-3 bucks on 4, 5, 6, etc.. team parlay...

....or maybe $5 to $10 on a two-teamer (if it feels right)...

....but, I'd personally make the two $5 bets (instead of the one $10 two-team parlay)...especially @ BetRev who won't vig you for a $5 bet.

If you have a $5,000 bankroll for the entire season (6 months)...

....you shouldn't bet more then $15-30 bucks on 4, 5, 6, etc.. team parlay...

....or maybe $50-$100 on a two-teamer (if it feels right)

... But, once again, I'd personally make two $50 bets (instead of the one $100 two-team parlay)....especially at 5D with -107 vig...

...or even take a $100 tease at 5Dimes (who will charge you -115 for a 7 pointer where ties push).....but, that's another topic entirely

Anyway, I got it the mood to offer some advice that I think is important for many reasons;

(1) a handicapper explained all this stuff to be years ago (friend of my fathers) who kept knicking the word "value" into my brain when discussing handicapping.

(2) My old main in locked up in the greybar motel for several finacial crimes that involved him gambling over his head and not knowing the difference between;

(a) betting & handicapping for recreation and supplemental income

(b) Betting to get himselve out of jams, cover debts that he couldn't afford, and gambling over his head. The last time I say him (over 5 years ago) a saw piece of paper with over 7 different bets on it. Wanna guess what type of bets they were (if you said "Parlays", you're right)

Sorry if I completely invaded your thread JJ....

Again, this wasn't a shot at you in anyway (I am happy to have you here). It was in infromative post for others to read.

I got in the mood to discuss the fundimentals a sharper sports handicapping and betting.

It all starts with "betting with value in handicapping" & parlays are rarely ever the "value play".

[Jamminj408]

Thank you very much Louie for this explanation. I know. For me. I have to learn more things. For instance I'll win a lot with an average bet of 200 but then once I start winning I'll up my bet to nearly triplet original. It's just the way my head works lol. I want to just bet 100 a unit/a play. Then I also start doing stupid parlays and lose it even quicker. Thanks for the info though about value and everything and also about my plays. I really appreciate it by the way. I will try to continue to fix my stupid plays but for now. Let's go Northwestern!!!

[BigWinDaddy]

Louie, good stuff brotha! You are a seasoned vet in the gambling arena and I'm sure I speak for most, if not all CIP's, when I say that you're Louie 101's are informative and great reads that come with useful tools. I've been betting for roughly 10 years and I am the first to admit that I started with big parlays. Fortunately, yet unfortunately, my first couple years I hit big in the parlay world, which lead me to years 3 & 4 - I got my ass kicked to say the least thinking parlays were the answer. I learned and expensive, yet valuable lesson and began focusing on straight bets ATS, which finally started turning some real profit. It took me awhile to really understand GREED, as I would win big, and like JJ, double or triple my bets to only lose my profit. Focus, discipline and and non-greed has made me a bettor sports bettor.

[Jamminj408]

Another LOSER on Northwestern
wow cant believe it

[Louie]

Another LOSER on Northwestern
wow cant believe it

Yea...tough one brotha...don't sweat it...

[Louie]

Thank you very much Louie for this explanation. I know. For me. I have to learn more things. For instance I'll win a lot with an average bet of 200 but then once I start winning I'll up my bet to nearly triplet original. It's just the way my head works lol. I want to just bet 100 a unit/a play. Then I also start doing stupid parlays and lose it even quicker. Thanks for the info though about value and everything and also about my plays. I really appreciate it by the way. I will try to continue to fix my stupid plays but for now. Let's go Northwestern!!!

Kicking bad money management habits will play a massive role in your success down the road. You'll be a happier and healthier sports bettor for it. Not only that, your significant other will trust you to place a bet more often as well (you know the women you share your home with...the one who doesn't know what you mean when you say you "took the over")..because you'll be winning more then losing.

Anyway, I am very glad you understood what I was getting at and that others caught on to the ideas I was preaching. This tells me you're a true CIP and you're at the right site. First, these threads are what separates from the rest of the junky, spammy, sport betting forums out there (that have losing written all over them).

My post above is the type of post mods and admins of other forums won't post (even if they are 100% aware of it). Why? First, they'll fear of the sponsors not liking them telling them to stop playing their "bread and butter" during the basketball season Second, these other forums fear tht their members will take the criticism and advice the wrong way and leave (BTW: I'll take 5 members on this board who can handle contructive criticism over 200 members that could care less about money management and value betting).

My point being, if you think they share this kind of stuff at "Covers", "SBR", "BTB", "RX" (etc...) and will discourage you from making a four teamer (or any play with big house edge? The answer is "S**T NO"! These sites would prefer the members argue (and even fight) about which teams to put in a 6-team parlay (rather then have their members..nor mods and admins advise you to play a few small straight plays instead). You know why they won't advise you to play smarter and sharper? It's because all the owners of those sites want you to lose (their sponsors pay them on their player losses and give them bonuses for reloads).

Here at Cappersinfo, I want you ALL (EVERY SINGLE ONE OF YOU) to win. I only take sponsors using pre-paid ad agreements or CPA (Cost Per Aquisition..meaning I get a $150 donation to the site for each new referall). I never take a deal on this board where the goal is to entourage losing/square play. It's just not in my blood. I started this forum to help bettors (not to encourage bettors to be the the sportsbooks most profitable account or your bookies favorite phone.

Anyway, everything single thing counts when it comes to sports betting...and money management matters "more" then less. Money management is more then 50% of the battle to successful sports betting.

My point was....as I ran off the keyboard last night (and just did it again)...was that you should always look for value plays.....try to minimize the burn (in case your bigger play that you like loses) with a few small value bets (rather then a parlay that includes the same team in you big play).

One more piece of advice;

You lost 6 units on Saturday (clearly you didn't need my reminder), but I want to say it because I want to remind you that you don't need to make it all back on Monday (or even Tuesday).....There's ALWAYS (yes 164 days a year) going to be games to look for sharp plays. Today, you should bet as if you have slightly less ammo and are looking for more small kills in order to get your stockpile back up; unless of course you're still having a great season (or you see something that you like a lot).

But, this should be my new Handicapping Advice slogan:
Don't kid yourself.....Handicapping & Sharp Betting is a War Between you and your book (s). Your Bankroll is Your Ammo. Use it Wisely. This forum is your platoon. The goal is to get the most kills (wins). Cappersinfo is here to help you navigate the minefield that is sports betting and avoid wasting your ammo on bad targets.

This may be a little off putting as this country is still as war. But, it's how I feel about this site and it's goals. They haven;'t changed since 2002 when I opened it (and it was paid for by two tout services..lol)

Hey JJ: I am also really sorry that I keep bumping a thread that has a losing day for you...I know you probably want to move past it. Don;t worry...true CIP's don't judge you based on one losing day (just as they don't judge you based on one winning one either).

Lets get em on Monday guys!

[LostNblunteD]

Thanks Louie for all the advice you have given us. I really needed to hear that as I am a parlay player and get greedy trying to make that extra green. Thanks again!.. Keep them heads up! Today let's make it happen and beat them books!..

[Louie]

Focus, discipline and and non-greed has made me a bettor sports bettor.

Why we look for guys like you on this forum and make it friendly to shaper players that not only play disciplined, but see things from different angles.