Lets try the Big 12 for Big Monday...

[NattyBumpo]

I've been chewing on this game all day.

I havn't bet it yet, the line has gone up a half point since opening... I may run down after I post this. I may wait til morning. Gonna wait a couple more hours to see what develops with the line first.

So Ill post the play now and my thoughts at the current line.
I'll come back later and let ya'll know if I get a different number.

513 - Iowa St +8.5 @ Baylor

This is what I'm seeing:

Two teams going in opposite directions. Take the last ten games. Iowa St has an equal record to Baylor. They've played basically all the same teams. Baylor is 2-2 at home. Iowa St is 2-3 on the road. Not much separation except for the national ranking in my opinion.

Now lets throw the two road wins for Iowa St out the window and focus on the two losses to Kansas and Texas... Iowa St covered those both ATS. They were close games... they lead at Kansas at the half by 3...they were overtaken in the sencond half but they only shot 36% from the field for the game...they out rebounded Kansas on both the offensive and defensive boards. With a lousy offensive shooting percentage... Iowa St lost by only 9.
Iowa St recently lost at Texas by 7. They were down by 6 at the half. So they basically played Texas even in the second half. Baylor beat Texas by 5 at home. But they had a big first half lead and were handled (a little too late, however) in the second half by the Longhorns. But letting it get that close after getting a huge lead is a big warning bell in my mind.

The second half adjustments/results by these two teams in these games, against these two significant opponents, also leads me to believe Iowa St has the better coaching. I guess the math would suggest Baylor should be a 6 pt home favorite if the math was everything. But it hardly ever is. Even if so, you'd be getting 2.5 pts of value here.

Now, Baylor not only just got murdered by Texas at home, but they couldn't do much the against Kansas the second time around at home (in a big revenge spot). Another damning piece of evidence against Baylors ability to adjust and adapt. Maybe its the players, maybe the coaches, maybe both. All the while, Iowa State played Kansas pretty tough on the road WITH a pretty bad offensive night.

So lets see... we have a road team that can play defense, rebound and has either won against (probably) lesser teams (yet they were the dog in all but one... Tex Tech) or played very good teams tough on the road. They are probably a bubble team with a huge chance to make the tournament with a road win here. This would probably make it real hard for the committee to snub them. They are on a big ATS win streak. They have probably been a bit underrated most of the year. At least in their minds.
... We have a home team that is ranked in the top ten. Is having some offensive funk in the last five games. Probably IS overrated. Starting to teeter and sway. I also see some fading in the assist to turnover ratio... teams are figuring out how to get to Baylor. The defense looks inconsistent as well.

BTW Ive seen Baylor do this before. Its in their culture to fall short.

Back to the last ten games... lets go to the ATS record. 7-2-1 for Iowa St....most importantly 4-0-1 on the road.

Baylor 3-7 ATS last 10 games. 1-3 at home.

I know the law of averages might suggest that these two are both due to level out... but we're getting 8.5 friggin points here. The Sagarin line is 7.5. Two web sites I look at show the opener (which was never available to the public) at -10. They are Covers.com and LasVegasInsider. Im putting these here because I'm becoming convinced that these sites (although they serve some useful purposes) are full of fuckin shit. They play games with the public that I'm a bit pissed off about.... especially Covers.Com. This is something I think to fuck with our heads more than anything. It's a big psychological blow to see -10 sitting up there for three hours and then when the book finally releases the opening line at +8 you go... "fuck, I don't know now". I know I did.

This is a big TV public game. With big public ideas.... and I think the books know that the public sees a lot of Baylor on ESPN. They see Baylor ranked in the top 10. Let me just say this... Iowa St doesn't think Baylor is the better team, and they want a piece of dat assssss!!!!!!

Watcha think fellas?... I know a lot of people might be looking for the "rubber band" effect to kick in for Baylor. I can't tell you how many times people use that and say... I can't believe it, the rubber band (or bounce back) angle usually works so good.
It's always a new and unique game is what I say. Angles are fine and good ... but sometimes there's a time and place for it. Besides I never liked that angle much myself.

I'm feeling Iowa St here.

[NattyBumpo]

I see the line went to 9 then went right back to 8.5 at the book I'm going to. Its 8.5 at all the available shops in Vegas. What should I do????? I hate waiting. I can get 9 and buy the hook now. I'll die if it goes to 8 or god forbid 7.5.

Fuck it Im going now... Ill play it reg. If they line balloons to 10 Ill double up later.

[dale.price26]

Hey man I have to say I been watching you. Man your good. I happen to live in Vegas myself bet I always fall in the trap in betting. But anyway I just wanted to say good job on your picks.

[NattyBumpo]

Hey man I have to say I been watching you. Man your good. I happen to live in Vegas myself bet I always fall in the trap in betting. But anyway I just wanted to say good job on your picks.

Thanks Dale. Its part of our culture here to gamble a bit. Just find a good way to supplement your gambling bankroll without letting it affect any household finances. Get creative but don't do anything to hurt the bottom line... paying the bills. If you can do that and have fun... any winnings are a bonus. Consider it a hobby is my advice or excuse to those who question. Most people spend more on bowling and drinking in one year than I have EVER lost in betting. And I'm having a losing year now.

But the catch is.... you have to put down the bowling ball and pass up the bars and clubs. Youll have a lot of gambling money then. LOL.....

Keep it going Dale. I appreciate your comments bud.

[NattyBumpo]

BW and Louie... Im just staring at this live odds screen you guys have here. I sure do like this. There's people who spend a lot of money to get something similar for the books in Vegas. This is good enough for me.

My keys are in my hand... the book is down the street... I'm waiting for a yellow highlight to start to flash... I'm trying to be patient... not do anything rash.

New song I'm gonna write haha... Ill call it "The Degenerate". LOL

[BigWinDaddy]

Natty - you're the man! Love your posts. As for the game, I think you're spot on and Iowa State is the play. Iowa State has proven themselves on the road and Baylor hasn't proven shit. I'm with you in this play! I think this line may bounce more in Iowa's favor tomorrow, as the public wants to believe Baylor at home is the play. I'm going to wait it out until the lunch hour to buy-in, or sooner if the line gets whacky. As for the over/under, I'm really liking over 140. Mark my words, this line will go up before game time.

[BigWinDaddy]

Also, I'm really liking Kansas -3.5. These rival games are fun, but KU is the better team by a long shot.

[NattyBumpo]

Awesome BWD.
I just played +8.5. probly add if your right about the line.

[NFLMINNOWPHD]

GL TODAY

[Louie]

I am freaking game NATTY!!



Thee units...

[Louie]

I see the line went to 9 then went right back to 8.5 at the book I'm going to. Its 8.5 at all the available shops in Vegas. What should I do????? I hate waiting. I can get 9 and buy the hook now. I'll die if it goes to 8 or god forbid 7.5.

Fuck it Im going now... Ill play it reg. If they line balloons to 10 Ill double up later.

I'm with ya Bumps...

[BigWinDaddy]

Ditto, bought the hook and got it @ +9

[aakjsf]

baylor has looked bad the last 2 games against KU and MO
Ia St is a good team

[NattyBumpo]

I doubled up on Iowa St @ +9.
also added a small play on Louieville +3.

Very small shot on ml parlay on Ville and Iowa St too.

Gd luck guys.

[NattyBumpo]

CRAP!!!!

[Oilfield Max]

Baylor was feeling good at their home court in Waco! Now that looks more like a top 10 team.