Anaylsis of LSU @ Miss. State

[mfischer1]

LSU -21 @ Mississippi State +21 8-30-2007

PICK- Louisiana State University -21 -110

First off all, as many of you know, LSU is the consensus number 2 team in the country and favorite to play USC in the National Championship Game. Mississippi State is far from that, ranked preseason as last in the SEC.

Looking at the historical match-ups since 2001, LSU has beaten Mississippi State by an average of 35 points over the last 6 years. The only year they didn’t win by at least 21 points was in the 2002 when LSU won by 18 points and finished the year 8-4. LSU is 6-0 ATS since 2001 vs. Mississippi State. When ranked preseason ranked at 4 or better, the Tigers have beaten Mississippi State by an average of 44 points and when opening against an unranked opponent, the Tigers have won by an average of 29 points (This includes a narrow 1 point win vs. Oregon State in 2004). In the three games played @ Mississippi State since 2001, the Tigers have given up a total of 13 points while scoring a whopping 120.

Don’t look for these trends to change.

On defense the Tigers are nasty, featuring Glenn Dorsey at DT. Here’s what Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville had to say about Dorsey, "We did everything possible to block him with one, two, offensive linemen, tight end at times, running back… Kind of reminded me a lot of Warren Sapp, the kid I coached at the University of Miami.” You think Auburn had problems blocking him? Miss. State has another thing coming; they don't have anyone that can stop Dorsey. The 6’2, 299 lb beast will dominate all year and looks to get off to a fast start against a weak Mississippi offensive line.

In the secondary, the Tigers will feast on MSU’s Michael Henig. He’s known for having problems with accuracy and with the constant pressure of Glenn Dorsey and Co., don’t expect him to miraculously overcome this. Expect the Tigers to come up with a couple of turnovers, helping to easily cover this spread.

On offense, the Tigers feature Senior Matt Flynn, who completed 60% of his passes last year. After waiting 3 years to take the team over, Flynn now has his chance. He’ll get plenty of time in the pocket, has a solid running game, and a host of receivers with good hands.

LSU won’t be able to have its way with Mississippi State’s defense, but Mississippi State won’t have a chance to score more than a few points against LSU. K Adam Carlson of Mississippi State has a decent leg, but hasn’t been better than around 50% on his career FG%.

Look for LSU to comfortably cover the spread and let's start the season on a good note!

Sounds easy enough to me eh?

[grandmaster]

guys, check out this line. -17 @ diamond and -21 @ betus.

mfischer, consider opening an account at another sponsor book. Ive never had a problem with any of them. Your bank account will thank you later.

Good luck here. I cant get a read on this one, so Im taking the middle.