Some things to ponder in the offseason

[mfischer1]

Hey all, I stumbled upon a pretty interesting website and I wanted to throw out some things I've been curious about.

Cumulative Overrated/Underrated Teams

First of all, I've been thinking about starting to find and follow an overrated or underrated team, betting on (or against) them week in, week out.

I was looking this site, which compares Preseason vs Final Polls (Or, who is overrated and who is underrated) and it got me thinking.

There could be potential to make a lot of money on a team that over the course of a season, either betting for said team, or against said team every week.

ESPN seems to be the raging power in pushing teams week in and week out, and I think their influence and sways the lines quite a bit. Finding a team that is grossly overrated, (ie ND 2007 3-9 ATS or Nebraska 3-9-0 ATS), or grossly underrated (ie UGA 8-4-0 ATS or Cincy 8-3-1).

All during the off season, I can remember hearing about how "this is the year for Nebraska" or how "ND will be off, but still will contend for a BCS bowl."

Meanwhile everyone was talking about Flordia and LSU, they forgot about a good Georgia team and looking at Cincy, they came out of nowhere...

To sum this up, not having done much research, (this being all of the top of my head) I can come up with a couple teams that will take a step back, or a step forward.

LSU looks to be pretty overrated. They lost a TON of seniors this year after the national title season, but even though they won, they lost 2 games. Hard to believe that they will be as good next year. But, on the other hand, Florida was the defending national champ and ended up a healthy 8-4-0 ATS.

West Va. might be primed for a step back as well. They have a new coach, and lost Steve Slaton, along with a ton of impact seniors. (Reynard, Schmidt, among others.) The media will focus Pat White, but is he good enough to carry the team?

Another team that has caught my interest has been Pitt. The media has labeled them the next "breakout" team. Pitt was 6-4-0 ATS, but they only had one great win, against a team with a giant bullseye on its back. I find it hard to believe that they will duplicate that kind of motivation week in and week out in 2008. Their 4 other wins? Cincy, Syracuse, Grambling, and Eastern Michigan.

I'm going to continue to see who the media paints as being "great" or "down". Over the course of a season, I would imagine the blow-outs, and upsets would balance out, making betting on a single team fairly safe.

What are y'alls opinion on this?

[mfischer1]

Also, I'm looking at pairing, overrated teams vs. underrated teams as big time plays...