BW's General Guide to Bowl Game Betting

[bigwinnner8]

I'm going to raise the bet this bowl season. I tend to do pretty well here and started sports betting by tackling the bowl games. This is a list of things I look for when analyzing a bowl game. Feel free to add/question/subtract/whatever. Hopefully we can get a nice little list of things to remember for bowl seasons to come...



Things to look for in Bowl Capping:

- Compare out of conference schedules (teams with tougher out of conference schedules or teams that played a team that uses a similar style to their bowl opponent)

- Seniors win bowl games

- Teams with a better running game do better ATS in bowl games

- Big Ten faves are 4-15 ATS since 2000

- Pac Ten dogs are 14-4 ATS since 2000

- Generally speaking, dogs of less than 7 cover before 2010... favorites cover after

- Intangibles (Players getting suspended, coaches leaving, a team that doesn't normally make a bowl game, etc.)

- Bet against teams with one dimensional offenses. For me, this means you average less than 100 yards per game in either phase (run or pass) as these teams are generally easier to prepare for, and don't fair as well in their bowl games.


For what it's worth, combining the dogs of less than 7 and the teams with better running games gives you this list of teams to play ON this year:

Central Florida
Middle Tennessee State
Temple
Wisconsin
Idaho
Air Force
Iowa State
Northern Illinois
UCONN
Michigan St. (key suspensions AND game takes place in 2010)
Iowa (use caution: BCS game)

[controlfade]

Of the top 60 Sagarin-rated teams, FADE EVERY team ATS whose strength of schedule rating is 60 or worse unless they are facing a team whose SOS rating is even lower than theirs (remember this is by ranking ... not actual %)

2007: 11-1
2008: 12-5
(23-6 79%)

I did not design this system but it has been a very effective tool along with hours of work. I came across this a few years ago on another site and have continued to use it as a TOOL in my handicapping


Here are the teams that qualify .

Dec 19 Rutgers -2.5
Dec 19 Wyoming +12
Dec 22 Oregon State -2
Dec 23 California -3
Dec 24 Nevada -14
Dec 29 Miami-FL -3
Dec 31 Missouri -6.5
Dec 31 Air Force +5
Jan 1 Oregon -3.5
Jan 1 LSU +3
Jan 2 Arkansas -8
Jan 4 TCU -7
Jan 6 Central Michigan -4

Remember guys there is still a risk involved, but I think it showed last year in the bowl games for me (23-7 overall) how effective it can be if you used as a TOOL in your handicapping.

Another trend is that in the first 8 bowl games play the favorite , middle 16 play the dog, and the final 8 play the favorite. This has averaged around 62 % over the last 5 years and is another TOOL that can be used.

If this helps anybody great. If not I tried