Count Its' Column- Sun Belt Vs. Mac

[countit1x]

First, can anybody help me find where the money line odds are?

Watching Mac football is sometimes funny to me. What's different in this game?

-northern Illinois defense is a bare minimum. Arkansas st. is a passing team, but will be able to do anything they want to N.Ill including running the ball. Arkansas St. will have no reason to go to the air.

-Arkansas St. has a strong rush D. Running the ball against Arkansas St. will be tough, which only makes it that much harder to complete passes.

-Field position in a Mac football game averages around the 40 yard line off of kick offs and punt returns. This won't be the case for N.Ill in this one. Arkansas St. has outstanding return defense. When a team cuts field position in half, is it safe to say ark st may cut n.ill pts. (average 38) in half?

Let's say Ark St. was a larger favorite (-7-14), where would the money be? I believe oddsmakers are leading the general public to believe this game will be close, also leading them to believe it will be a shoot out in a high scoring game. This game is lopsided in Ark st.'s favor.

I like Arkansas St. -1.5 huge in a big skunking while also going under 65.5

[BigWinDaddy]

Great analysis. I agree that Ark State covers, by these MAC games tend to go over more so than not. May stay away from total altogether, as it seems too unpredictable.

[countit1x]

Thanks, and I agree with the tendencies of a Mac game. But, wouldn't you agree that this will be a Sunbelt game more than a Mac? Remember: the public only remembers what they have seen, but this game consist of much different circumstances. This is why I like for the total to be under.

Count It

[mrsports]

Arky State won a ton of games this year against teams with terrible spread records. They barely out rushed their opposition this year and their coaching staff was dismantled. NIU has been to 4 straight Bowl games and if I was forced to bet I would go with NIU.

Let's see both QB's like to run...however ASU has a qb with 18 TD's passing and 13 int's....NIU QB 27-5....Arky state has not been to a bowl since 2005.....again NIU 4 in a row....

After writing this...I think I may bet.

[countit1x]

I like harnish, but individual stats aren't the key. I'm sorry, but I can't be convinced that the Mac conference is comparable to the sunbelt.

[mrsports]

I did not think the Sun Belt was close to the Mac, but after checking Jeff Sagarin's rating I see they are close.

USATODAY.com

[countit1x]

What a sloppy game last night, but I don't want to get wrapped up in the losses and reasons why now. I just learn from them. Moving On.

Bama-LSU:
Leading up to tonight from earlier this season, I knew they weren't hyping the in-season game for nothing. Too much advertising dollars were spent for this game not to happen again. Now, here we are, the BCS Title game. My advice for tonight basically boils down to a no play. This game is not in favor of any of us cappers. The measure is too close to call. There's no value. Or in other words, a dumb bet. The house has the advantage.

The game side is 1-2.5, What will the 2nd half line be, and what must happen for the line to be there? Wouldn't you think oddsmakers would like to have the same line at halftime?

A little action- game props at wagerweb.com:
Double result 1st half-full game:
Tie-LSU +1400
Tie-Alabama +1400

[NattyBumpo]

I happen to agree. No real value. This is an entertainment bet. I know a lot of people like to make some of their biggest bets on games like this. I think the books are just to sharp to let the public have any advantage in big profile games. These are usually games to bet small if you just cant resist. As in everything, there are exceptions.

Nice find on the prop bet. Very good high reward to risk IMO.

Tough night on the ArkSt game. I really thought the coaching situation came into effect here. Some real questionably conservative play calling in the red zone early on when ArkSt had a chance to really put the wood to N.Ill. A 14 pt lead apposed to 6 points might have really altered the mindset and performance of both teams. Never the less.... no excuses right?