Week 4 discussion

[kbiggz]

Lets see if we can come up with another big play. I'll start my research today and post what I came up with. Hoping for a big weekend again.


No O/U's are out as of yet. Atleast i havent found any.

SD
NE -6
**NE is 4-1 ATS and SU vs SD since 92

Indy -7
Titans
**The over is 3-0 when game is played at Tennessee all time. This game actually jumps out at me for some reason to play the Titans.

Texans
Bengals -10
**Cincinnati is 2-0 SU and ATS since '92

Rams
G-Men -3
**St Louis is 4-2 SU vs NYG since '92. I like the Rams +3 but wow did Eli impress me.

Bills
NO pk
**Buffalo is 2-1 SU against New Orleans. With Takeo Spikes, i'm worried Duece will run loose but all in all i see Buffalo pull this one out. Moore for the Vikings ran for over 100 and he isn't that steller yet, Losman will finally get a break with this defense BUT they can pressure the QB very well! Its all on the hands of the Bills O-Line and LB corp.

Detroit
TB Bucs -7
**Game looks odd on paper...why is it only at 7 at home? Bucs are freaking good, this could be the trap of the weekend....EVERYONE WILL BE ON THE BUCS, lets see if the line moves. Detroit is 11-10 SU against TB.

Seattle
Wash -2
**Washington is 4-3 ATS and SU vs Seattle since '92. This will be a good game but can the Washington O score?

Vikings
Falcons -6
**Toss up...i like the Falcons depending on thier secondary. If they are depleted again like they were against the Bills..PLAY THE OVER!

Dallas
Oakland -3.5
**Oakland gets thier first win!!! POD so far. Can't find many stats and trends but this is the only game i see that closely resembles the Vikings last week.

49ers
Arizona -3
**Under is 4-1 since '92....biggest question : WHY IS THIS GAME ON SUNDAY NIGHT??? what a bore.

GB
Carolina -8
**Do they deserve a -8 or should you ask...do the Packers deserve to only be a +8 Underdog? GB is 6-2 SU in the series.

Games w/o spreads yet :

NYJ/Baltimore
KC/Philly
Denver/Jags

As of right now, i dont really like anyone, maybe Raiders and the Titans...what do you guys see?

NFL : 3-1 +1025

[CanadianGuy]

Interesting line moves with the NE/SD game. I was watching them yesterday morning when it opened and it opened at -6.5 but is now -5.5. My original feeling is that NE is going to kill SD because I don't think SD's defense is nearly as good as it needs to be to be able to win, but the line dropping to 5.5 is strange.


Before I even saw any lines I was liking the Giants and Oakland. I think Oakland will get their first win as well but the public is already all over both of these plays and that scares me. I hope the action shifts to the other side because I can't ride those plays if 80% of the public is on them. Other stuff I would look into is playing ON Houston. Sounds crazy i know but this is a good letdown week for the Bengals. I think all the teams that are coming off a bye (houston, detroit, baltimore, and maybe washington) are teams to watch out for this week. I'm actually surprised that the tampa line isn't higher than it is. Thats all I got for now.

[jak2403]

I also thought the TB line would be higher. Seems sort of strange to not even be a TD line.

Atl might also be a good play. Their def is good and I think they will stop the run and have good DBs to keep Culpepper from going off. And their offense should be able to put up some points against Minn def.

This one sounds strange but I am looking at SF +3. No Warner for Arz and their offense has not shown me much at all this year. Will have to look into it some more.

My early thoughts

[CanadianGuy]

Thats another good one to mention Jak, SF/ARZ. I don't see how you can't like SF here but on the other hand it might be Arizona's only chance at a win. But still, no warner? I'm sure as hell not putting money on Mccown

[xkingsyx]

I love Seattle this weekend.

Washington may be the worst 2-0 team in a long, long time. Seattle seems to have everything going for them right now and even with Washington coming off of a bye week, i see a 20-13 win for Seattle.

I'm also liking Houston +10. Houston should be able to exploit a weakness in the Bengals run defense and at least keep it close. Bengals are due for a let down game.

[squirreljf]

I am not going to touch the game, but I think the Skins may shock some people this week. The O has had its problems but I think after that win in Dallas they are going to be on their game. Its a home game after a bye-week, after a huge win. The D can keep us in any game right now. just my thoughts and like I said, I am not going near this game...

[Woodshed]

Originally posted by kbiggz


Games w/o spreads yet :

NYJ/Baltimore
KC/Philly
Denver/Jags

FYI,

NYJ (+7.5) @ Baltimore
Philly (+2) vs. KC
Denver (+3.5) vs. Jacksonville

[kbiggz]

Originally posted by jak2403

Atl might also be a good play. Their def is good and I think they will stop the run and have good DBs to keep Culpepper from going off. And their offense should be able to put up some points against Minn def.

Side note about Atl's defense : make sure they have all thier DB's. When they played Buffalo, they had Chris Cash and Morton who were BOTH on the Practice squad last year, START!! To bad Losman is practically a rookie and over threw two long balls that were easy TD's. With those passes the game would have been totally different and Buffalo would have won the game just by the huge momentum swing and 14 pts. He over threw Evans and Moulds each once by 5-10 yards and no one was near them. DeAngelo Hall was injured as well and he might be playing around 70-80%. With that in mind, i like Vikings to shock everyone with there play. This Minnesota team will win thier division...they are for real, they just have to get it rolling and with the way i saw Culpepper roll those arms after his TD passes, i see it starting to roll and roll fast.

IM FALLING IN LOVE WITH THE SF PLAY...they are more real than any other team right now and playing with passion for thier new coach.

I still like the Titans...Bills/Texans i like too. Yea i wasnt the first to say it b/c i wanted to see what you all thought, but i like the Texans to finally win one....maybe

Buffalo will win at NO...that game might be a POD.

[kbiggz]

Originally posted by Woodshed
FYI,

NYJ (+7.5) @ Baltimore
Philly (+2) vs. KC
Denver (+3.5) vs. Jacksonville

I like the same teams that the public will be on...Balt/Philly/Jax


I will play Denver and KC cuz McNabb was cursed with Madden and i thought he did awesome but now he's injured, i even benched him for Fantasy this upcomming week.

[xkingsyx]

Originally posted by kbiggz

I will play Denver and KC cuz McNabb was cursed with Madden and i thought he did awesome but now he's injured, i even benched him for Fantasy this upcomming week.

You'll regret that. McNabb will most likely play (you should know Friday or Saturday) and you saw what the Broncos did to their secondary, now it's McNabb's turn.

280 yards and 2-3 td's for mcnabb this week.

[CanadianGuy]

I like KC to win this week

[kbiggz]

Originally posted by CanadianGuy
I like KC to win this week

I've never regreted one pick before and i'm up 1k just from last week alone...wait til i'm up 2k!

KC will win this one AT KC and they will win with big numbers. I probably will still play McNabb (maybe) b/c he will throw 2 TD's and probably 280 or so BUT he will lose.

KC will win by 3pts atleast, Denver might lose but not more than 3 pts if they do lose. Minnesota will win outright depending on the DB's which NO ONE has even thought about....thats where the Books are going to CASH IN!!

I will put a side bet saying that more then 70% of ppl will pick the Falcons.

[Woodshed]

Originally posted by kbiggz


Buffalo will win at NO...that game might be a POD.

I agree. The Saints have started a backslide off the week 1 win that I don't think is suddenly going to turn around. Also, they don't have the defensive pressure to put on the run and force Losman to throw alot.

Also, I would have a hard time not taking Indy at a TD or less.

[CanadianGuy]

Something interesting about the Washington/Seattle game is there's a poll on NFL.com right now asking "which undefeated team could suffer its first loss in week 4?", and out of 40,000 votes theres 75% of the votes saying Washington will lose this week.....almost makes me want to take them -2 based on the sole fact that the public is doubting them.

Sets up an interesting situation actually. Seattle coming off of two wins, probably due for a loss on the road against a good defense. Denver playing at Jacksonville where I think they will lose, then in week 5 Washington plays @ Denver where I think Denver will give Washington their first loss and then Washington will be on the road in week 6 against KC where I think they'll lose again.



Right now my early leans are to play ON Washington, NY Giants, KC and maybe Houston.

[CanadianGuy]

So here's the undefeated teams and their percents from the poll as of right now:


Which team could suffer its first loss in Week 4?

Redskins 76%

Bucs 10%

Colts 9%

Bengals 4%




I'm saying one or two of these teams will lose, and the public has no faith in Washington so that probably means they will win, meaning that out of Indy, Tbay, or Cinci I wouldn't be surprised to see two of those teams lose this week.

[Dayton91]

ok, i really like NE and Indy this week... One of these weeks Peyton has got to break out! and even if he doesnt, the D will play well enough to keep Indy up a TD. And NE is just solid, I dont care if Harrison is out, or that SD is coming off a big win. I think Brady can throw all over the SD defesne like Manning did, and even better, and the Pats wont make stupid mistakes like my Giants always do!

last thing...

CG-where do you find what bets the public is on? I'd love to find this out. Thanks.

[CanadianGuy]

http://www.sportsbook.com/sportsbook/lines_nfl.html