Beating The NFL In July

[Louie]

Beating the NFL in July!

By: William Foote


A common misperception many folks have about professional gamblers is how they earn money. Sure there are some that simply beat books the good ole fashion way, which is picking more winners than losers. Many more however are just plain opportunists. These players spend more time looking for middling opportunities or locking in a profit betting both sides of an out of whack money line than they do worrying about beating the 11/10.



There are literally a zillion ways to generate an income betting sports that have less to do with traditional handicapping and more to do with simply seizing an opportunity. I’ll go over more of them at a later date, but would like to share one strategy I have used for many years and have had great success with.



Certain sports books will put out NFL lines in the middle of summer. I have actually listed Week 1 NFL lines from Bet365.com below. If you do any off season NFL handicapping work, you can immediately tell many of these are way off. You can also be darn sure these lines are going to move substantially between now and Week 1. What that means is the closer we are to Week 1, the sharper these lines will become.



If you have a good beat on a team and can tell already that a line is soft, now is the time to bet it. For instance, let’s say you think Houston is going to be much better this season than they were in 2002. Your opinion is that the Texans at +10.5 is much more indicative of how they played last year than how they will fair this year.



Go ahead and place a bet on them at +10.5. If you are right in your assessment, odds are the number will come down as game time approaches. In my experience, the worst enemy of a soft line is time and getting down now will lock in your price. In this instance, the line could drop all the way to Houston +9 or lower.



If the line does indeed move that far, the fact you are locked in at the early price provides a twofold benefit. First, you have a great line. Second, you have an opportunity to grab the middle if you are so inclined. In other words, you have the option of placing an equal sized bet on Miami at -9. And while I am generally not a huge proponent of middling, there are a few exceptions.



The exceptions are in the NFL and NBA Totals. The simple reason is that both NFL games and NBA Totals tend to land at or near the set line at a very high frequency. In the NFL, this is especially true on numbers such as 3, 4, 6, 7 and 10.



Of course, the risk is that the line will move the other way. To hedge this, make sure you are checking the number in question at least a couple times a day. If it does indeed move, you more than likely will still be able to find it somewhere else at the hold price. At that point, go ahead and cross the bet over and suck up the loss on juice. Lines in motion tend to stay in motion. In other words, do not wait for it to magically turn around as it could run away from you. And crossing the bet over at that point will open you up to being middled.



It is not advisable to utilize this strategy if you are not acutely familiar with the NFL, if you do not have a solid beat on a particular team or teams, if you do not understand NFL line moves in general, if you do not have an overall understanding of public sentiment or if you do not know what the key NFL numbers are. If you do however have a handle on all of these aspects, getting down early can open up a boatload of opportunity come Week 1.



Let me give you a quick example. Green Bay is a 6 point home favorite over Minnesota. First off, “Cheese Heads� are the NFL’s equivalent to Yankee fans, which means they back their team not only with their heart, but with their wallet as well. Second, the public outside of Wisconsin seems to absolutely love betting on Green Bay as well. Both of these facts mean a significant amount of Packer action will start coming in as the season nears.



In addition, there is ample handicapping data and statistics out there in regard to how poor Minnesota plays on the road and similarly how poor Minnesota plays outdoors. As soon as the media starts discussing this and as soon as the handicapping newsletters start reminding bettors of this, the more action Green Bay will receive.



Lastly, the climate difference between Lambeau Field and the Metrodome has made this a home dominated rivalry. I can’t remember the last time Green Bay lost to Minnesota at home or the last time Green Bay beat Minnesota on the road. That information will also start to propagate around the Internet and in capping circles, which will in turn lead to significant Packer action.



Of course this is all speculation on my part, but it would not at all be surprising to see Green Bay at -7 by game time. If everything falls into place, the line could even move to Green Bay -7.5 and we would be left with a golden middling opportunity. At that point, simply bet the same amount on Minnesota +7.5 and root like hell for Green Bay to win by 7.



This strategy has proven tremendously successful for me the past couple of years and hopefully you all can incorporate it into your arsenal as well. I have listed the Week 1 NFL Lines from Bet365.com below. Good luck!



Week One NFL Lines from: Bet365.com



Sep 04 - NY Jets -2.0 @ WAS Redskins

Sep 07 - STL Rams @ NY Giants -2.0

Sep 07 - NE Patriots @ BUF Bills -2.5

Sep 07 - BAL Ravens @ PIT Steelers -6.0

Sep 07 - JAX Jaguars @ CAR Panthers -3.0

Sep 07 - HOU Texans @ MIA Dolphins -10.5

Sep 07 - IND Colts @ CLE Browns -2.0

Sep 07 - DEN Broncos -6.0 @ CIN Bengals

Sep 07 - ARZ Cardinals @ DET Lions -5.0

Sep 07 - MIN Vikings @ GB Packers -6.0

Sep 07 - SD Chargers @ KC Chiefs -3.5

Sep 07 - ATL Falcons -3.0 @ DAL Cowboys

Sep 07 - NO Saints @ SEA Seahawks -2.5

Sep 07 - CHI Bears @ SF 49ers -6.5

Sep 07 - OAK Raiders @ TEN Titans -2.0

Sep 08 - TB Buccaneers @ PHL Eagles -3.0