donkey's NFL plays for week 10

[donkeypunch]

Season: 21-21-5
Last week: 4-2

Feels good to finally have a good week, it's been a while! A bit unlucky in the KC game, but not even close on Baltimore! Eish. This is kind of a weird week, I only really like 1 game, I kinda like another, and I kinda/sorta like a couple of totals. I may either flip a coin, or play them both...but i've got 4 days to decide! No play on the Lions game for me this week, I'm just not sure how this team will react to the time off in the middle of the season.

Anyways, onto the plays for week 10, thought and suggestions are welcome!

Atlanta +4

POD, Carolina is the worst 4-4 team in football, inconsistant QB play, injuires all over the place. Carr and Vinny are both hurt, no one seems to be sure which one is playing. Atlanta meanwhile is only 2-6, but 5-3 ATS, so they've been keeping games close. Carolina is 0-3 at home? Wait that can't be right....oh it is. Also of note, the road team has won the last 4 games in this matchup. More trends if you're into that kinda thing: Atl 5-1 ATS last 6 as a road dog, Carolina 0-5 ATS last 5 at home. Atlanta plays enough defense to keep this game close. I really like the under in this game as well, but I don't like playing a spread and total in the same game.

Green Bay -anything less than 6.5

It's simple, Minnesota doesn't defend the pass very well, AP won't go for 296 yards, it's outdoors at Lambeau. If Green Bay is smart, they will play 8 in the box the entire game and force Jackson/Bollinger to beat them (won't happen), SD could not have had a worse game plan going into the 2nd half last week, it won't happen again.

St. Louis/New Orleans Over 46

Both teams will combine to throw the ball 90 times, this will make for a longer game, thus probably more scoring. Game will be indoors, that helps. Don't look too far into the early season numbers for either of these teams, both are now getting healthy and finding rthym on offense.

Buffalo/Miami Over 41

This game caught my eye at first, but the more I think about it, the more I back off this one.

I'm such a square, 2 overs and a favorite....oh what have I become. I guess it's adjusting to the season on the fly. Also have my eye on the Giants....best of luck to everyone this week

[donkeypunch]

Official plays are:

Atlanta +4
Green Bay -6
StLouis/NO Over 46

[donkeypunch]

Carolina is looking like they are going to be playing Matt Moore at QB, could turn into a great middle opportunity if the line drops below 3 (doubt it, but there's a chance).

[dirtymoney27]

as i was reading your play i was going to post what im posting right now.. and then i saw you already posted it.. but here it is anyways.. carolina will more than likely start matt moore.. don't sleep on moore.. he was the third string QB the cowboys had in preseason.. and he shined when he had his chances. hes been with carolina for a few weeks now and has had a chance to learn the system. another interesting thing about this game.. steve smith and deangelo hall.. gonna be a interesting match-up but i see steve smith coming out on top. hes been rather quiet as of late (i would know, hes on my fantasy football team). carolina wins this game by a margin of 7-10 points.. and im gonna go out on a limb.. but when the game is over carolina will find it replacement QB for the rest of the season! go matt moore!!

the rams and saints over seems like a good play.. the saints are really coming back to their own and the rams are getting healthy as you mentioned.. like the over.

as for the packers.. sry bud but id side with minnesota. i think its going to be a close game. the packers will probably win it.. but with adrian peterson.. minnesota can control the clock and keep this one close. we all thought.. well atleast i did.. that san diego had a good run defense.. adrian peterson made them look silly.. the packers are one dementional as are the viking.. except the vikings run defense is clutch.. just look how many yards LT had last week.. but then again i dont need to tell you this as you look smart and already know.. therefore the vikings will fix their pass defense this week and keep this one close.. minnesota 20 packers 24

good luck!

[donkeypunch]

Originally Posted by dirtymoney27

as i was reading your play i was going to post what im posting right now.. and then i saw you already posted it.. but here it is anyways.. carolina will more than likely start matt moore.. don't sleep on moore..

Point taken, I watched plenty of Moore at OSU, but Atlanta can play some defense. I think they can neutralize Steve Smith with D'angelo Hall, so I think someone else will have to beat them. Atlantas weakness on D is their rush defense, 121 yards per game. So Carolina will be heavily dependant on the run. If you remember the last game between these two, Carolina won by 7 on the road. Harrington threw for over 300 yards, but Hall took some very foolish penalties that lead to the go-ahead TD drive. It's a play on a team that's improving every week in Atlanta and a team that's floudering and has QB problems in Carolina.

As for Green Bay, they will not let Peterson beat them, especially at home. The last game wasn't as close as the final would indicate (24-17). I believe in Packers ability to stop AP, if they do that, they'll win easily. Green Bay won't be able to run the ball, I've come to terms with that, but again the way Favre is playing I don't think it will matter.

Either way, good luck on your plays, I've been wrong just as many times as I've been right this year, so we'll see

[AdrianGPTX]

Good luck today Donkey!!!

I'm with you on the Green Bay pick

[donkeypunch]

Thanks Adrian, Green Bay looking good right now, St Louis game goes over early in the 4th!

4 PM games, adding:

NY Giants +2.5

[donkeypunch]

One more for Sunday night:

Indy -3.5

Having trouble finding an angle on the Monday nighter, so this may be it for the week.

[grandmaster]

wow!

quite a day youre having Dale.

[donkeypunch]

thanks grand, i'm gonna throw a changeup here, I had no idea that Clark was out for Indy...this is not good for Indy backers. So I'm going for a middle and playing:

San Diego +4.5

[grandmaster]

Im gonna do the same thing...
+4.5
-3.5

Colts by 4!!!!

Good Luck D

[justintyme]

Sounds good to me
Got indy -3.5

[donkeypunch]

well, this middle isn't going to get there....but i'm glad I got the injury news before it was too late, so I just lose some juice. we'll take 3-1 anyday though!