Homecoming weekend

[Louie]

Reply with any interesting information as well as picks, stats, trends, personal anylasis, etc in this thread.

[Louie]

Indianapolis
Indianapolis is second highest scoring team in the league at 30.0 points per game.
Indianapolis commits the second fewest turnovers in the league with 0.8 per game.

Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is second in the league in passing at 253.7 yards per game.
Tampa Bay is the toughest team to score on in the league, allowing just 7.3 per game.
Tampa Bay has the best pass defence in the league allowing 109.0 per game.

[Louie]

NFL Preview - Indianapolis (4-0) at Tampa Bay (2-1)


(Sports Network) - The undefeated Indianapolis Colts will face their biggest challenge to date when they take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium on Monday night.

Colts head coach Tony Dungy, who won the most games in Bucs history when he coached the team from 1996-2001, returns to his old home with a red-hot ball club. The Colts scored a season-high 55 points in their Week 4 victory in New Orleans and now have a chance to improve to 5-0 for the first time since 1977.

"My biggest thought all week is that we're 4-0, and if we get to 5-0 with three road wins that's really going to give us a good shot at getting to the playoffs," Dungy said. "If we lose the game it will be tough bouncing back and coming back on a short week playing against a very good Carolina team in [Week 6], so that's my focus going down there, to see if we can get to 5-0. That would be the same whether we were going there, or going to Minnesota, or going to Pittsburgh or Kansas City, or any of the other places that I've worked.

"I think the 60 minutes of football is going to be fantastic. Playing on Monday night, the defending champions, we're 4-0. That should be the storyline. But it probably won't be."

The Bucs, who had a bye last week, last played in Week 3. Brad Johnson passed for 192 yards and two touchdowns and Michael Pittman and Mike Alstott combined to rush for 126 yards in Tampa Bay's 31-10 road victory over the Atlanta Falcons. Despite the extra week of rest, the Bucs are also taking the high road when it comes to facing their old head coach.

"Our focus as players mainly is to focus on the Indianapolis Colts and not get involved in the emotions that deal with coach Tony Dungy," linebacker Derrick Brooks said. "Make no mistake about it -- he's coming here to win a football game, and to us, we're taking that very personal. We've got to get our first win at home and defend our woodshed. Anything outside of that has nothing to do with us."

SERIES HISTORY: The Colts lead the series 5-4, but the Bucs have won three of the past four meetings.

These teams last met on November 2, 1997. Tampa Bay kicker Michael Husted booted a 36-yard FG with eight seconds left to lift the Bucs to a 31-28 road victory. Bucs receiver Karl Williams scored two touchdowns in the contest.

Dungy has never faced his former team. Tampa Bay head coach Jon Gruden is 2-0 versus Indianapolis.

MONDAY NIGHT SPOTLIGHT: The Bucs, who have won eight of 13 Monday night games in their history, opened the 2003 season with a 17-0 victory over Philadelphia on Monday Night Football. Indianapolis is 12-10 on Monday nights.

COLTS OFFENSE VS. BUCS DEFENSE

Peyton Manning is off to a phenomenal start. Last week in the victory over New Orleans, Manning completed all but five of his passing attempts and threw a franchise-record six touchdown passes. His performance was good enough for AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. Manning, whose 103.7 passer rating is second in the AFC to only Tennessee's Steve McNair, was also named the AFC's Offensive Player of the Month for September.

"I think you have to take it with a grain of salt because it's not us," Bucs DT Warren Sapp said of the Colts' early offensive success. "You look at them putting up 55 on New Orleans and we laugh at it. That's not going down with us.

"But you've got to be ready to play. They're a high-powered offense with Marvin Harrison and Edgerrin James, and Peyton Manning is one of the best signal-callers you'll find from here and 80 years behind us. They're special, but we are too. If you ask them how they win the game, they'd say, 'Put our offense out there.' And we'd say, 'Put our defense out there.' We'll see what we got."

Edgerrin James (back) did not play last week. He was replaced by a trio of backs -- Ricky Williams, Dominic Rhodes and James Mungro. Rhodes was the most effective runner of the three, as he averaged 6.0 yards on his six carries. He also broke a 14-yard run. Williams, who had nine carries for 34 yards, was a major contributor in the short-passing game. He caught four passes for 40 yards. Rhodes had two catches, including a 12-yard touchdown. Mungro carried the ball 10 times for 30 yards.

"We don't really change what we're going to do when Edgerrin is not in there," Dungy said. "It just takes two or three backs to do it all. We've got guys who can do the things that he can do but not one person that can do everything. That's the great thing with [James], we don't have to substitute very much. He can run inside. He can run on short yardage. He can catch the ball. He can block. We can flank him out of the backfield, so he gives us a lot of versatility, and he's been the guy who has carried the load for the Colts for four years.

"I think the thing that we're learning is that we can win as a team. We can win without the performances from Edge. We can win without a monster game from Marvin [Harrison] or Peyton. We've done that this year, and I think that helps."

The Colts have been nothing short of outstanding this year, but Dungy's club hasn't faced a defense as good as Tampa Bay's. Of course, no one knows that defense better than Dungy, who constructed it.

"I told [some of Tampa Bay's defensive coaches] that that was as fine a stretch [last year] as I have seen in a long time in the league," Dungy said. "They've done a great job to continue to tweak it, fine tune it and add players. The farther they get in the system the less little cracks there are, and it's fun to watch."

The Bucs have allowed 22 points in three games this season. After shutting the Eagles out in Week 1, the Bucs lost 12-10 to Carolina and beat Atlanta 31-10. It's no surprise that the Bucs are ranked first in the NFL in total defense (213 yards per game) so early in the season.

"We plan on going out there and, of course, taking on the run," said Bucs defensive end Simeon Rice, who leads the team with 4.0 sacks. "That's our first objective, then we'll get after the passer. We're going to try to cause some havoc and get a win."

If the Bucs' defense has a weakness, it would be against beefy, straight-line running backs. Indy's offense does a great job of spreading the field with Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and tight ends Marcus Pollard and Dallas Clark. That usually opens things up for the offense in the running game. By running right at the Tampa Bay defense, the Colts will benefit by negating Monte Kiffin's defense's speed and athleticism.

Manning would also like to see the running game working because he is a master of the play-action pass. The offensive line, which will be without OT Ryan Diem (ankle) once again, has done a great job of protecting Manning this season. The Colts have allowed just three sacks in three games.

BUCS OFFENSE VS. COLTS DEFENSE

The Buccaneers are also coming off their best offensive performance of the season, a 21-point Week 3 victory in Atlanta. After the Week 2 loss to Carolina, Gruden strongly emphasized the importance of a good running game. Subsequently, the Bucs came out with an effective running game against the Falcons that accumulated 132 yards on 37 carries.

"We have to run the football to be successful," Gruden said. "We don't always have the results that we're looking for, but we're committed to running the football and producing positive results."

Gruden was encouraged by Pittman's Week 3 performance. Pittman entered the Week 3 contest with just 18 carries for the season, but he eclipsed that with a 20-carry, 82-yard outing against the Falcons.

Indianapolis has the sixth-ranked defense in the NFL, but the club has struggled to stop the run (22nd, 114.5 ypg). Gruden will do everything he can to dominate time of possession and keep Indy's offense off the field. However, Pittman and Alstott will have to run the ball effectively in order for that to happen.

"I think it's probably a bigger game for us than it is for them," Dungy admitted. "We're playing the defending champions and playing on the road. We just got a slight lead in our division, and we want to keep that going. We haven't played the elite teams and played in a lot of big games like this, so I think it's definitely a big game for us. Obviously, when we're playing the defending champions, that says it all."

Brad Johnson isn't going to find many opportunities to make big plays downfield against Dungy's Cover-2 scheme, but the veteran QB also didn't have to go very far to practice against the alignment because the Bucs play the same defense. Johnson is an accurate passer and makes heady decisions. He will take advantage of zone coverage on WR Keyshawn Johnson, who leads the Bucs with 17 receptions for 210 yards.

"For me, I've kind of got to go back in time," Brad Johnson said of facing Dungy's Colts. "I was with Tony in Minnesota 11 years ago, and as a backup, I was on a lot of teams. I've played against him five times in Minnesota and Washington. So I've seen quite a bit of [Dungy's defense]. Obviously some things kind of change, but the great thing that they do with their guys is they put them in positions to be successful. They don't give up a lot of big plays. They present some challenges for you, but it should be a fun game.

"They don't really give up a lot of points, don't give up a lot of yards, don't give up the big, big play. But if we don't turn the ball over and we play our style, we should be fine."

Like the Bucs, the Colts' defense has been stingy on the scoreboard. Indy is allowing a paltry 11.8 points per game and held Steve McNair's Titans to seven points in Week 2. Dungy will need a huge effort from his defense to pull off the upset on the road over the defending world champs.


Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Tampa Bay 27, Indianapolis 17

[allstr921]

Based on this info, I like TB alot tomorrow....thanks louie

[Louie]

allstar,

I would wait it out and see what the other members (Riki/NFLMNNOW/ALAN/etc) have to say as well.

[NFLMINNOWPHD]

TELL YOU THE TRUTH,I DON'T LIKE EITHER SIDE,TB SHOULD COME OUT STRONG AS THEY DID AGAINST PHILLY THE FIRST WEEK AND I DON'T THINK INDY WILL SCORE 55 AGAINST TB DEFENSE,THEY WILL SCORE,BUT WHO WILL SCORE THE MOST.I AM LOOKING AT THE OVER MYSELF. GL ALL

[Studplayr]

This weekend was the big homecoming weekend for NFL players and coaches. Holmgren to GB,Emmitt to Dallas Mariucci to SF,Dungy to TB. The first 3 homecomers all lost,Det. did get a cover.
The streak stops here.

Indy +170 to win outright.


GL
Stud

[NFLMINNOWPHD]

OVER 37½ IND/TB

[Louie]

Indianapolis Colts Vs the Tampa Bay Bucs

Weather Report
Partly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from
the Northeast at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.

Opening Line Bucs -4 1/2 Total 38
Closing Line Bucs -4 Total 37 1/2
Money Line Bucs -220 Colts +180

Injury Reports

Indy Injuries
Player Pos Injury Status Games Avg
Adam Meadows T Undisclosed Ques Mon
Brad Pyatt WR Hip Ques Mon
Walt Harris CB Knee Prob Mon
Dwight Freeney DE Undisclosed Prob Mon
Jim Nelson OLB Head Ques Mon
Edgerrin James RB Back Ques Mon
Ryan Diem RT Ankle Out Mon
Brandon Stokley WR Hamstring Ques Mon
Joseph Jefferson CB Back Out Mon
Donnel Thompson FB Knee out for season
Donald Strickland CB Groin Ques Mon

Tampa Bay Injuries
Mike Alstott RB Neck Ques Mon
Joe Jurevicius WR Knee Doub Mon
Shelton Quarles LB Forearm Out Mon
Rickey Dudley TE Ankle Late Oct

Trends
Indianapolis - 1-6 ATS in October
Tampa Bay - 6-1 ATS at home off a division game

[allstr921]

I am goin big on TB. 6 units on TB -4.5. Pittman will run it up their throat. Good luck everyone.

[becool]

TB + over