***Week 2 thread ***

[False Light]

any of you guys do confidence picks?

i did ok last week, got big losses that most had, indy, san diego... missed on the atlanta pick

wondering if anyone can provide some insight, i wanna win some money

[donkeypunch]

I do FL. What are you looking for exactly?

You can't feel bad about Indy, and SD because no one in their right mind should have been on the other side (I'm assuming this is straight up, no spread).

[donkeypunch]

FL I'm assuming this is the look ahead thread, so if you don't mind I'm gonna get it started:

Detroit +3....This seems like the perfect trap game situation for Green Bay, they are coming off a short week after playing on MNF, and play Dallas in week 3, home opener for Detroit (which is not sold out as of today). Interesting that GB is a fg favorite here.

Tennessee +1 at Cincy.....The Bengals are an absolute disaster right now, with all the infighting, coaching and play calling were beyond awful, Tennessee will be starting Collins at QB this week which probably gives them a better chance to win right now.

Washington +1 vs. NO......Someone wants us to put money on the Saints this week with this line.

St. Louis +9.....Almost a double digit underdog at home? I can't see any way that I would ever put a cent on NYG laying that many points on the road, it's either STL or nothing for me.

New England +1.5.....This should be the most interesting game of the week, NE goes from public favorite to now some people saying that they will not make the playoffs. First off, they will make the playoffs, too well coached, too many playmakers on each side of the ball, weak division (although suddenly Buffalo and NYJ aren't terrible). The Jets really didn't impress me too much against a very medicore Miami team, I don't see how they are a small fav here, should be the other way around imo.

Houston -4.5 vs Baltimore......Rookie QB in his first road start, home team laying less than a TD, another line that seems kinda short to me.

Philly +7 at Dallas.....Again this line seems a little off to me, was thinking it would be in the 5.5 to 6 range, Philly isn't suddenly a good team, they've been good for years.

What do you think?

[squirreljf]

"Washington +1 vs. NO......Someone wants us to put money on the Saints this week with this line."

I agree with this play. The skins also normally do good on home opener, I will not be playing this due to how horrible they have been doing. I think the local high school team here could beat them right now.

"New England +1.5.....This should be the most interesting game of the week, NE goes from public favorite to now some people saying that they will not make the playoffs. First off, they will make the playoffs, too well coached, too many playmakers on each side of the ball, weak division (although suddenly Buffalo and NYJ aren't terrible). The Jets really didn't impress me too much against a very medicore Miami team, I don't see how they are a small fav here, should be the other way around imo."

I also agree that Brady doesn't make this team, they are a strong team, they will be fine with anyone at QB

"Houston -4.5 vs Baltimore......Rookie QB in his first road start, home team laying less than a TD, another line that seems kinda short to me."

I think Baltimore might be tougher then they get credit for right now.

I like the colts also -1. They are on the road but Minn will be on a short week, and I don't think the vikings looked very good.

[False Light]

dp, great insight, as usual...

i think people are underestimating the pats...

remember the first year that new england won the super bowl, with brady at the helm?

he wasn't the same qb he was now, flinging the ball all over the field, lining up shotgun on first down, throwing to randy moss...

back then, they were very conservative, they ran the ball more, they relied more on their defense, and brady just kinda did enough for them to get the win (he always had the knack for that game winning drive) i think the pats are still the best team in the AFC east, i think the jets looked awful against a porous miami team.

i expect their defense to really step up and be the bend but don't break defense they were earlier this decade...

as far as my confidence picks, i was basically just asking you guys what you would do...

i've got

tenn
buf
kc
indy
car
gb
nyg
was
tb
sea
ne
den
ari
hou
and dal winning monday night

i haven't entered my picks but i have the giants, arizona, kc high with point values

[donkeypunch]

My confidence picks look like this (in order)

TB
Seattle
Arizona
NYG
KC
Tennessee
Pitt
Dallas
NE
Houston
Indy
Carolina
GB
Washington
Buffalo
Denver

As for this week......I am still at a loss about this whole NE being a dog, I'm looking at a big card this week guys, lots of dogs that I'm liking!

[bigwinnner8]

I share the views of many of you guys here. This is one of those weeks where I like just about every other game. This usually leads to a 9-2 or a 2-9. I'm a little scared because its so early. Its hard to distinguish between the ones that are "someone wants us to bet this side" and the teams that are really good/bad. This determination is much easier to make in week 10 then it is in week 2. Good Luck with your picks everyone.

[donkeypunch]

Originally Posted by bigwinnner8

I share the views of many of you guys here. This is one of those weeks where I like just about every other game. This usually leads to a 9-2 or a 2-9. I'm a little scared because its so early. Its hard to distinguish between the ones that are "someone wants us to bet this side" and the teams that are really good/bad. This determination is much easier to make in week 10 then it is in week 2. Good Luck with your picks everyone.

While I tend to agree, a big week for me in NFL will consist of 5-6 games because I too don't wanna go broke the first couple weeks either. But having said that, there are a few public teams that have been on the downward spiral since about week 8 of last season, the games from the end of the season last year do in fact need to be accounted for when looking at early season games. For example, Cincy looks just as bad now as they did at the end of last year, the same can be said for San Francisco, Detroit (I like them this week due to circumstance). And then there are some teams that could just be still getting used to a new coach and system (Washington, Miami, SF again). Also I think early season injuries could play a major role this week, can the backup O-Linemen from Jacksonville make enough of a stand against an improving Buffalo team? Can Matt Cassel win in his first start against a very average defensive team in the Jets? Can Seattle overcome all those injuries at WR? How will New Orleans be without a top 10 receiver in Colston?

I'm not looking at trends this early for the most part, but there is information that can be gathered still for the early weeks.

[False Light]

Last week: 3-2
Overall: 3-2

kansas city chiefs -4

love the chefs at home, they played new england very tough last week, and oakland is a total mess

detroit lions +4

i think this is kind of a trap game for the packers, rogers first road game as a starter, detroit coming off an embarassing loss... i'm taking the points here

carolina panthers -3

like i said last week, these guys could be a surprise team in the nfc, should be a really good game because the bears look much improved

that is all for now, i may add the late games, and the sunday nighter

[False Light]

bad day with my plays 0-2-1

however, i am in the lead with my confidence picks, but i need philly to win tonight

i have dallas picked, but my point total is only 5, and there is a guy with a high total tonight on dallas

the killer is he switched his hou/bal game to a 1, and i still had houston at 12

that really hurts.